Second Cold War
The terms Second Cold War, Cold War II, and New Cold War have been used to describe heightened geopolitical tensions in the 21st century post–Cold War era, usually with the United States and NATO on one side, and Russia and/or China on the other. Russia is regarded as the successor state of the Soviet Union, which led the Eastern Bloc during the original Cold War. The terms are sometimes used to describe tensions in multilateral relations, including China–Russia relations. Some commentators have used the terms as a comparison to the original Cold War, while others have discouraged their use to refer to any ongoing tensions.
Usage during original Cold War
The phrase "new Cold War" was first used in 1955 by US Secretary of State John Foster Dulles, and in a 1956 New York Times article warning of Soviet propaganda promoting the Cold War's resurgence. Other analysts, such as academics Fred Halliday, Alan M. Wald, David S. Painter, and Noam Chomsky, used the interchangeable terms to refer to the 1979–1985 and/or 1985–1991 phases of the Cold War. Some other analyists used similar terms to refer to the Cold War of the mid-1970s. Columnist William Safire argued in a 1975 New York Times editorial that the Nixon administration's policy of détente with the Soviet Union had failed and that "Cold War II" was then underway. Academic Gordon H. Chang used the term "Cold War II" to refer to the Cold War period after the 1972 meeting in China between US President Richard Nixon and Chinese Communist Party chairman Mao Zedong.Usage in the context of foreshadowing
In May 1998, George Kennan described the US Senate vote to expand NATO to include Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic as "the beginning of a new cold war", and predicted that "the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies". In 2001, foreign policy and security experts James M. Lindsay and Ivo Daalder described counterterrorism as the "new Cold War". British journalist Edward Lucas wrote in February 2008 that a new cold war between Russia and the West had already begun.Usage in a multilateral context
In a 2016 op-ed for The Straits Times, Kor Kian Beng wrote that the phrase "new Cold War" between US-led allies versus Beijing and Moscow did not gain traction in China at first. This changed in 2016 after the United States announced its plan to deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defence in South Korea against North Korea, but China and Russia found the advanced anti-missile system too close for comfort. The US also supported a tribunal ruling against China in favor of the Philippines in the South China Sea. Afterwards, the term "new Cold War" appeared in Chinese media more often. Analysts believe this does not reflect China's desire to pursue such a strategy but precautions should still be in place to lower the chances of any escalation.In June 2019, University of Southern California professors Steven Lamy and Robert D. English agreed that the "new Cold War" would distract political parties from bigger issues such as globalization, global warming, global poverty, increasing inequality, and far-right populism. However, Lamy said that the new Cold War had not yet begun, while English said that it already had. English further said that China poses a far greater threat than Russia in cyberwarfare but not as much as far-right populism does from within liberal states like the US.
In his September 2021 speech to the United Nations General Assembly, US President Joe Biden said that the US is "not seeking a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocs." Biden further said that the US would cooperate "with any nation that steps up and pursues peaceful resolution to shared challenges," despite "intense disagreement in other areas, because we'll all suffer the consequences of our failure." In May 2022, David Panuelo, President of Micronesia, used the term to state his opposition to a proposed cooperation agreement between China and ten island nations, by claiming it could create a "new 'cold war' between China and the West." In June 2022, journalist Michael Hirsh used the term "Global Cold War" to refer to tensions between leaders of NATO and China and its ally Russia, both countries striving to challenge the US's role as a superpower. Hirsh further cited growing tensions between the US and China as one of the causes of the newer Cold War alongside NATO's speech about China's "systemic challenges to the rules-based international order and to areas relevant to alliance security". He further cited the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as one of factors of the newer Cold War's rise.
In July 2022, James Traub used the term while discussing how the ideas of the Non-Aligned Movement, a forum of neutral countries organised during the original Cold War, can be used to understand the reaction of democratic countries in the developing world to current tensions. In the same month, France, the United States and Russia scheduled high-level, multi-country diplomatic visits in Africa. An article reporting on these trips used the term "new Cold War" in relation to what "some say is the most intense competition for influence since the Cold War". An article published in the July 2022 issue of the journal Intereconomics linked the possible "beginning of a new cold war between the West and the East" with "the rebirth of a new era of conflict, the end of the late 20th century unipolar international security architecture under the hegemony of the United States, the end of globalisation". In August 2022, an analysis article in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz used the term to refer to the US's "open confrontation with Russia and China". The article continues on to discuss the impact of the current situation on Israel, concluding that "in the new Cold War, cannot allow itself to be neutral." In the same month, Katrina vanden Heuvel used the term while cautioning against what she perceived as a "reflexive bipartisan embrace of a new Cold War" against Russia and China among US politicians.
In September 2022, a Greek civil engineer and politician Anna Diamantopoulou further stated, despite unity of NATO members, "the West has lost much of its normative power," citing her "meetings with politicians from Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East." She further stated that the West will risk losing "a new cold war" unless it overcomes challenges that would give Russia and China a greater world advantage. She further gave suggestions to the Western powers, including the European Union. In September 2023, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea Kim Jong Un called for an accelerated increase in the production of domestic nuclear weapons in response to the world entering a "new Cold War" between the United States and a "coalition of nations" including China, Russia, and North Korea.
In December 2023, Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned that the deepening "fragmentation" between the two power blocs—one by the United States and European allies; another by China and Russia—would lead to "cold war two", impacting "gains from open trade" and risking potentially loss of up to trillion. In The Diplomat June 2024 article, University of Bonn professor Maximilian Mayer and Jagiellonian University professor Emilian Kavalski opined that the China–Russia relations have been stronger than before and that Xi's China will "fully back Putin's effort to threaten and undermine liberal democratic states", threatening European security and dashing any hopes that the relations between the two countries would become further strained. Mayer and Kavalski further criticised Europe for lacking "historical templates" and its "tripartite approach to China—as partner, competitor, and rival" as "woefully outdated because it lacks a security angle altogether". Both the professors further advised Europe to address China's strong ties with and strong support for Russia's further aggressive plans toward Europe.
Usage in the context of Russia–United States/NATO tensions
Some analysts used the term to describe the worsening relations between Russia on one side and the West or NATO, or more specifically the United States on the other since Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and intervention in Eastern Ukraine, which started the Russo-Ukrainian war. Others argue that the term is not appropriate.In relation to the Russia–Ukraine war (2014–2021)
Analysts disagree as to whether a period of global tension analogous to the Cold War is possible in the future, while others, like Carnegie Moscow Center director Dmitri Trenin, used the term to describe the ongoing renewed tensions and hostilities that rose dramatically in 2014 between Russia and the West. Some political analysts argue that Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, which started the Russo-Ukrainian war, marked the beginning of a new Cold War between Russia and the West or NATO. By August 2014, both sides had implemented economic, financial, and diplomatic sanctions upon each other: virtually all Western countries, led by the US and European Union, imposed punitive measures on Russia, which introduced retaliatory measures.In 2014, notable figures such as Mikhail Gorbachev warned, against the backdrop of a confrontation between Russia and the West over the Russo-Ukrainian War, that the world was on the brink of a new cold war, or that it was already occurring. The American political scientist Robert Legvold also believes a new cold war between Russia and the West started in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and supported an insurgency in eastern Ukraine. Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, argued that the Ukraine conflict did not fit his definition of a cold war.
Stephen F. Cohen, Robert D. Crane, and Alex Vatanka, among others, have all referred to a "US–Russian Cold War". Those opposed to the term argue that while new tensions between Russia and the West over the Ukraine conflict have similarities with those during the Cold War, there are also major differences, and provide Russia with new avenues for exerting influence, such as in Belarus and Central Asia, which have not seen the type of direct military action in which Russia engaged in less cooperative former Soviet states like Ukraine and the Caucasus region.
In June 2014, the Ministry of Defense of North Macedonia published an article asserting that the term "Cold War II" was as a misnomer. In February 2016, at the Munich Security Conference, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO and Russia were "not in a cold-war situation but also not in the partnership that we established at the end of the Cold War", while Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, speaking of what he called NATO's "unfriendly and opaque" policy on Russia, said "One could go as far as to say that we have slid back to a new Cold War". In October 2016 and March 2017, Stoltenberg said that NATO did not seek "a new Cold War" or "a new arms race" with Russia.
In February 2016, a Higher School of Economics university academic and Harvard University visiting scholar Yuval Weber wrote on E-International Relations that "the world is not entering Cold War II", stating that the current tensions and ideologies of Russia and Western countries are not similar to those of the original Cold War, that conflicts in Europe and the Middle East do not destabilise other areas geographically, and that Russia "is far more integrated with the outside world than the Soviet Union ever was". However, he suggested that Russia and the West were in the midst of a "mini-Cold War"
In September 2016, when asked if he thought the world had entered a new cold war, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, argued that current tensions were not comparable to the Cold War. He noted the lack of an ideological divide between the United States and Russia, saying that conflicts were no longer ideologically bipolar. In August 2016, Daniel Larison of The American Conservative magazine wrote that tensions between Russia and the United States would not "constitute a 'new Cold War'" especially between democracy and authoritarianism, which Larison found more limited than and not as significant in 2010s as that of the Soviet-Union era. Andrew Kuchins, an American political scientist and Kremlinologist speaking in December 2016, believed the term was "unsuited to the present conflict" as it may be more dangerous than the Cold War.
In October 2016, John Sawers, a former MI6 chief, said he thought the world was entering an era that was possibly "more dangerous" than the Cold War, as "we do not have that focus on a strategic relationship between Moscow and Washington". Similarly, Igor Zevelev, a fellow at the Wilson Center, said that "it's not a Cold War a much more dangerous and unpredictable situation". CNN opined: "It's not a new Cold War. It's not even a deep chill. It's an outright conflict", due to "competing military operations in Syria, disputes over Eastern European independence and escalating cyber breaches".
In January 2017, former US government adviser Molly K. McKew said that "Putin and his minions have spent the past 15 years ranting about how the West wants a new Cold War". She suggested that "fighting a new Cold War would be in America's interest", adding "We won the last Cold War. We will win the next one too". The New Republic editor Jeet Heer criticised McKew's suggestion as "troubling" and for "wildly overstating the extent of Russian ambitions and power". Heer said that unlike the old Cold War, "Current U.S. troubles with Russia aren't the result of ideological differences... and are intensely localized along Russia's borders, in countries like the Ukraine and Georgia". Jeremy Shapiro, a senior fellow in the Brookings Institution, wrote in his blog post at RealClearPolitics, referring to the US–Russia relations: "A drift into a new Cold War has seemed the inevitable result" of "Russian-Western confrontation" over Eastern European counties such as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.
In August 2017, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov denied claims that the US and Russia were having another cold war, despite ongoing tensions between the two countries over Ukraine and Syria, and newer US sanctions against Russia. The University of East Anglia graduate student Oliver Steward, as well as the Casimir Pulaski Foundation senior fellow Stanisław Koziej, attributed the Russia's Zapad 2017 exercise in Belarus as part of the new Cold War between Russia and the West. In March 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin told journalist Megyn Kelly in an interview: "My point of view is that the individuals that have said that a new Cold War has started are not analysts. They do propaganda." Michael Kofman, a senior Research Scientist at the CNA Corporation and a fellow at the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute said that the causes and character of the new conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine and Georgia are different from the Cold War. He said the Cold War "was a battle for global dominance between two universalist ideologies" while this new conflict for Russia "is about its survival as a power in the international order, and also about holding on to the remnants of the Russian empire". Lyle Goldstein, a research professor at the US Naval War College said that the situations in Georgia and Ukraine "seemed to offer the requisite storyline for new Cold War" between Russia and the West.
Also in March 2018, Harvard University professors Stephen Walt, and then Odd Arne Westad, criticised the application of the term to increasing tensions between Russia and the West as "misleading", "distract", and too simplistic to describe the more complicated contemporary international politics. In October 2018, Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer told Deutsche Welle that "we have a new Cold War, so the treaties that ended the previous one are irrelevant because they correspond to a totally different world situation", referring to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and others. In February 2019, Sergey Lavrov stated that the withdrawal from the INF Treaty would not lead to "a new Cold War".
Russian news agency TASS reported the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stating: "I don't think that we should talk about a new Cold War", adding that the US development of low-yield nuclear warheads had increased the potential for the use of nuclear weapons. Speaking to the press in Berlin on 8 November 2019, a day before the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned of the dangers posed to the West by Russia and China. He said: "Today, Russia – led by a former KGB officer once stationed in Dresden – invades its neighbours and slays political opponents". Jonathan Marcus of the BBC opined that Pompeo "appeared to be declaring the outbreak of a second ".