2024 United States Senate election in Texas


The 2024 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Republican incumbent Ted Cruz won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic challenger and U.S. Representative Colin Allred. The primary election took place on March 5, 2024, during Super Tuesday.
Early polling showed Cruz as a clear favorite, but polls closer to the election showed a closer race. Cruz ultimately outperformed polling and expectations and won re-election by 8.49 points, improving on his 2018 margin by six points and flipping thirteen counties. Cruz won a slight majority of Hispanic and Latino voters in the election.

Background

Texas is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold, having not elected a Democratic Party|Democrat] to any statewide office since 1994.
Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, both houses of the Texas Legislature, and a large majority in Texas's U.S. House congressional delegation.
Cruz was first elected in 2012 [United States Senate election in Texas|2012], defeating Paul Sadler by 16 points and was reelected in 2018 by less than 3 points, narrowly defeating Beto O'Rourke. The close elections in 2018 prompted many electoral analysts to speculate that Texas could become a swing state, but in the 2020 and 2022 elections, Republicans increased their margins of victory.
This race was considered to generally favor Cruz, but some considered the race to have the potential to become competitive.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Holland Gibson, retiree
  • Rufus Lopez, attorney

Declined

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

  • Aaron Arguijo, coffee shop owner

Withdrew

Declined

Libertarian convention

Nominee

Write-in candidates

Declared

General election

Polling

Aggregate polls

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ted
Cruz 		Colin
Allred 		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntelNovember 1–4, 20242,434 ± 2.0%53%46%1%–
Morning ConsultOctober 22–31, 20242,120 ± 2.0%47%44%–9%
Cygnal October 26–28, 2024600 ± 4.0%49%45%3%3%
ActiVoteOctober 21–27, 2024400 ± 4.9%52%48%––
New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 23–26, 20241,180 ± 3.3%50%46%–4%
New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 23–26, 20241,180 ± 3.1%49%46%–5%
Rasmussen Reports October 24–25, 20241,002 ± 3.0%47%43%3%7%
GBAO October 18–23, 2024800 ± 3.5%46%46%4%4%
Emerson CollegeOctober 18–21, 2024815 ± 3.4%48%47%–5%
UT TylerOctober 14–21, 2024956 ± 3.0%47%45%3%6%
YouGovOctober 7–17, 20241,108 ± 3.5%49%45%–6%
ActiVoteOctober 1–16, 2024400 ± 4.9%53%47%––
Morning ConsultOctober 6–15, 20242,048 –46%45%–9%
YouGovOctober 2–10, 20241,091 ± 3.0%51%44%4%–
University of HoustonSeptember 26 – October 10, 20241,329 ± 2.7%50%46%1%3%
Marist CollegeOctober 3–7, 20241,186 ± 3.6%51%46%–3%
Marist CollegeOctober 3–7, 20241,365 ± 3.3%50%47%–3%
Mainstreet Research/FAUOctober 2–6, 2024811 ± 3.4%46%43%–11%
Mainstreet Research/FAUOctober 2–6, 2024775 ± 3.4%47%44%–9%
New York Times/Siena CollegeSeptember 29 – October 4, 2024617 ± 4.8%48%44%–8%
New York Times/Siena CollegeSeptember 29 – October 4, 2024617 ± 4.5%45%43%–12%
GBAO Early October 2024800 ± 3.5%46%44%6%4%
ActiVoteSeptember 5–30, 2024400 ± 4.9%52%48%––
RMG ResearchSeptember 25–27, 2024779 ± 3.5%48%45%4%3%
RMG ResearchSeptember 25–27, 2024779 ± 3.5%50%47%4%–
Public Policy PollingSeptember 25–26, 2024759 ± 3.5%47%46%–7%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 25–26, 2024759 ± 3.5%45%43%3%9%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 22–24, 2024950 ± 3.1%49%45%–6%
Texas Hispanic Policy FoundationSeptember 13–18, 20241,200 ± 2.8%48%45%–7%
Morning ConsultSeptember 9–18, 20242,716 ± 2.0%44%45%–11%
CWS Research September 4–9, 2024504 ± 4.4%46%40%3%11%
Morning ConsultAugust 30 – September 8, 20242,940 ± 2.0%47%42%–11%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 3–5, 2024845 ± 3.3%48%44%–8%
GBAO September 2024800 ± 3.5%48%43%4%5%
YouGovAugust 23–31, 20241,200 ± 2.8%44%36%6%14%
Quantus Insights August 29–30, 20241,000 ± 3.1%50%43%3%4%
Texas Public Opinion Research/
Lake Research Partners 		August 24–29, 2024800 ± 3.5%47%43%7%3%
ActiVoteAugust 13–29, 2024400 ± 4.9%55%45%––
Public Policy Polling August 21–22, 2024725 ± 3.6%47%45%–8%
Public Policy Polling August 21–22, 2024725 ± 3.6%44%40%4%12%
YouGovAugust 5–16, 20241,365 ± 2.7%47%45%3%6%
ActiVoteJune 25 – July 18, 2024400 ± 4.9%54%46%––
Remington Research Group June 29 – July 1, 2024589 ± 4.0%53%43%–4%
YouGovJune 20 – July 1, 20241,484 ± 2.5%47%44%3%6%
Manhattan InstituteJune 25–27, 2024600 ± 4.0%46%43%3%8%
UT TylerJune 11–20, 20241,144 ± 3.7%43%39%7%10%
UT TylerJune 11–20, 2024931 ± 3.8%45%42%7%7%
YouGovMay 31 – June 9, 20241,200 ± 2.8%45%34%6%15%
GBAO May 2024800 ± 3.5%47%40%8%5%
YouGovApril 12–22, 20241,200 ± 2.8%46%33%7%22%
Texas LyceumApril 12–21, 2024926 ± 3.2%41%31%13%15%
Texas Hispanic Policy FoundationApril 5–10, 20241,600 ± 2.5%46%41%4%9%
Cygnal April 4–6, 20241,000 ± 2.9%45%36%5%14%
Marist CollegeMarch 18–21, 20241,117 ± 3.8%51%45%1%3%
UT TylerFebruary 18–26, 20241,167 ± 3.2%41%41%7%12%
YouGovFebruary 2–12, 20241,200 ± 3.5%46%32%9%13%
National Public AffairsFebruary 6–8, 2024807 ± 3.5%44%44%–12%
YouGovJanuary 11–24, 20241,145 ± 2.5%48%39%4%9%
Emerson CollegeJanuary 13–15, 20241,315 ± 2.6%42%40%8%11%
YouGovDecember 1–10, 20231,200 ± 2.4%43%27%15%15%
UT TylerMay 10–21, 20231,413 ± 3.0%42%37%8%14%
Texas Hispanic Policy FoundationMay 8–17, 20231,000 ± 2.9%47%40%4%9%

Ted Cruz vs. Roland Gutierrez

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ted
Cruz 		Roland
Gutierrez 		OtherUndecided
YouGovFebruary 2–12, 20241,200 ± 3.5%45%31%9%14%
YouGovJanuary 11–24, 20241,145 ± 2.5%48%38%4%10%
Emerson CollegeJanuary 13–15, 20241,315 ± 2.6%41%40%8%11%
YouGovDecember 1–10, 20231,200 ± 2.4%42%26%16%17%

Results

By congressional district

Cruz won 25 of 38 congressional districts.
DistrictCruzAllredRepresentative
73%25%Nathaniel Moran
58%39%Dan Crenshaw
56%42%Keith Self
63%35%Pat Fallon
60%38%Lance Gooden
60%37%Jake Ellzey
35%62%Lizzie Fletcher
63%35%Morgan Luttrell
24%73%Al Green
59%38%Michael McCaul
70%28%August Pfluger
57%40%Kay Granger
57%40%Craig Goldman
71%27%Ronny Jackson
64%34%Randy Weber
54%44%Monica De La Cruz
38%58%Veronica Escobar
62%36%Pete Sessions
26%71%Erica Lee Carter
26%71%Sylvester Turner
73%25%Jodey Arrington
34%63%Joaquín Castro
59%39%Chip Roy
56%42%Troy Nehls
53%44%Tony Gonzales
54%43%Beth Van Duyne
64%33%Roger Williams
58%40%Michael Burgess
58%40%Brandon Gill
61%37%Michael Cloud
48%49%Henry Cuellar
33%64%Sylvia Garcia
23%75%Jasmine Crockett
58%39%John Carter
34%64%Colin Allred
34%64%Julie Johnson
28%69%Marc Veasey
46%52%Vicente Gonzalez
29%68%Greg Casar
65%33%Brian Babin
22%75%Lloyd Doggett
57%41%Wesley Hunt

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Analysis

Cruz won a majority of Hispanic and Latino voters, particularly those living on the border with Mexico who had traditionally supported Democratic candidates; the NBC News exit poll showed 52% of Latinos supported Cruz, a 17-point increase from 2018.
Colin Allred overperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election in Texas by 5.5 points, receiving nearly 200,000 votes more than her and performed relatively better in the largely Hispanic Rio Grande Valley. Allred carried seven counties won by Trump in the concurrent presidential election, including the Rio Grande Valley counties of Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Webb, and Willacy, as well as Williamson and Tarrant counties.