2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive
In early June 2023, during the Russo-Ukrainian war, Ukraine launched an offensive against Russian forces occupying its territory with a goal of breaching the front lines. Efforts were made in many directions, primarily in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. In total, Ukraine recaptured 14 villages in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, with a total pre-war population of around 5,000. The counteroffensive was widely regarded as a crucial moment in the war.
Planning for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive had begun as early as February 2023, with the original intention being to launch it in the spring. However, various factors, including weather and late weapon deliveries to Ukraine, delayed it to summer, as it had not been deemed safe to progress. Russia had begun preparing for the counteroffensive since November 2022 and had created extensive defensive infrastructure, including ditches, trenches, artillery positions, and landmines intended to slow the counteroffensive. Ukraine met well-established Russian defenses in the early days of the counteroffensive and after that slowed their pacing in order to assess the extent of Russian defenses, demine territory, save troops, and exhaust Russia's military resources. They made incremental gains by capturing over 370 km2 of territory, less than half of what Russia captured in all of 2023.
Almost five months after its start, prominent Ukrainian figures and Western analysts began giving negative assessments of the counteroffensive; statements by Ukrainian general Valerii Zaluzhnyi in early November 2023 that the war was a "stalemate" were seen by observers as an admission of failure. Rigorous assessments made by analysts followed, especially with regard to operational success, from several weeks earlier. That same month, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated the war would be entering a new phase. Ukrainian forces did not reach the city of Tokmak, described as a "minimum goal" by Ukrainian general Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, and the probable initial objective of reaching the Sea of Azov to split the Russian forces in southern Ukraine remained unfulfilled. By early December 2023, the counteroffensive was generally considered to be stalled or failed by multiple international media outlets.
Background
State of the war
Following the Kherson and Kharkiv counteroffensives in late 2022, fighting on the front lines largely stagnated, with fighting mostly concentrated around the city of Bakhmut during the first half of 2023.Russian defenses
Russian fortifications in Ukraine had been described as the most "extensive defensive works in Europe since World War II" by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Construction to create military infrastructure had begun as early as November 2022 in order to entrench Russian troops into Ukrainian territory. By April 2023, Russia built an long defense line in preparation for a Ukrainian counteroffensive. The final lines of fortifications established by Russia prior to the counteroffensive amounted to being nearly long, extending from the border with Belarus to the Dnieper delta. Defenses primarily consisted of ditches, dragon's teeth, trenches, artillery positions, anti-vehicle barriers, and prepared firing positions for vehicles. Russia had also created extensive minefield regions across the frontline regions with anti-tank mines. An estimated of territory had been mined, which also included Ukrainian mines laid in the Donbas region during the War in Donbas. In early May, Russian forces had constructed a dam and moat around the captured city of Tokmak which is located near the frontline of the counteroffensive.In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russia constructed roughly three lines of defense: a long frontline from Vasylivka to Novopetrykivka on the Zaporizhzhia–Donetsk oblasts border, a long second line of defense from Orlynske to just north of Kamianka, and "a constellation of disconnected fortifications surrounding larger towns". The first line contains multiple counter-mobility barriers and infantry trenches backed by artillery positions located nearby. The second line is similar to the first, allowing Russia to set up a new front while also offering protection against flank attacks. The third line contains strategically positioned fortifications meant to serve as a contingency to preserve Russian positions in case of a Ukrainian victory. It was predicted to be the most heavily fortified frontline region. In Kherson Oblast, defenses were created in order to protect Crimea and the Dnieper, while trenches in the road are located every few kilometers. The purpose was to prevent amphibious warfare. In Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces constructed field fortifications apart, combined with the urban terrain. Approximately 76% of the fortifications observed were estimated to have been created pre-2022, with the quality of them being doubted due to relative disuse over time. These fortifications center around Olhynka, Donetsk, Makiivka, and Horlivka.
Prelude
Planning
Planning for a 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive began in autumn 2022, shortly after the Ukrainian victories in Kherson and Kharkiv. The prevailing wisdom among Ukrainian and Western officials was reportedly that this counteroffensive would bring about the end of the war, either by resulting in a decisive Ukrainian victory or by forcing Russian leadership to pursue a peace agreement. Ukrainian commander-in-chief Zaluzhnyi came to the meetings with Western commanders insisting on an offensive on Melitopol in order to cut the so-called "land bridge" between Crimea and mainland Russia. He had earlier advocated that this be the main Ukrainian offensive effort in 2022, instead of the more limited operations in Kherson and Kharkiv, but it was determined by the Americans and the British that the Ukrainian military had insufficient manpower and resources to carry it out at the time. Once again, there was pushback from Ukraine's western partners; the Pentagon was unsure whether it could supply enough weapons, and U.S. general Chris Donahue expressed doubt that the Ukrainians could break through the extensive trenches the Russians were digging.By January 2023, the plans called for a counteroffensive on two fronts. Ukrainian general Oleksandr Syrskyi would command a secondary offensive in Bakhmut, which would involve a feint towards the Luhansk Oblast. This maneuver was intended to "tie up" the Russians in the east while the Ukrainians launched their main effort, the attack against Melitopol. The operation was scheduled to be launched on 1 May.
By February 2023, it was reported that Ukrainian troops were receiving military training from NATO and anticipating Western equipment, primarily M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks to be used for the upcoming counteroffensive. Ukraine had also formed multiple new units in early 2023. Originally these were all supposed to be equipped with Western supplied weaponry, but some units, like the 31st Mechanized Brigade and the 32nd Mechanized Brigade, were equipped with older weapons such as the AKM assault rifle and the T-64 tank. Another factor that had caused the counteroffensive to be delayed was the 2022–2023 Pentagon document leaks, in which sensitive US intelligence regarding the Ukrainian military was leaked by April, causing Ukraine to alter some of their military plans as a result. However, Ukrainian officials have disregarded the leaks and stated that they were still planning for the counteroffensive. Despite this, American officials projected the counteroffensive to begin by May. Ukraine began finishing preparations for an anticipated counteroffensive and would not explicitly announce when the counteroffensive would begin by May.
Despite the general expectation that the counteroffensive would take place in spring, it did not. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy explained that Ukraine had not received sufficient Western supplies and that Ukrainian military training from the West had not been completed yet. By May, Zelenskyy had not deemed the counteroffensive to be ready to start, as the delivery of Western weapons had caused a delay; Zelenskyy had desired to start the counteroffensive "much earlier" and said that the delays had provided Russia with the opportunity to fortify their occupied territories. Furthermore, weather was a substantial factor delaying the counteroffensive; during that time period, Ukraine was undergoing its rasputitsa, making travel difficult for vehicles such as tanks.
In late May 2023, Ukrainian high command held a meeting where Zaluzhnyi presented his final plan for the counteroffensive: Oleksandr Tarnavskyi would command a main assault against Melitopol involving 12 newly-trained brigades and most of the ammunition, Syrskyi would lead a supporting effort around Bakhmut, and Yurii Sodol would conduct a feint towards Mariupol. At this meeting, Syrskyi reportedly expressed his desire to execute a full-scale attack on Bakhmut and an advance into the Luhansk Oblast, and requested additional manpower and ammunition to do so. After the meeting, Zelenskyy ordered that the ammunition was to be evenly split between Tarnavskyi and Syrskyi, and that Syrskyi be given five of the twelve newly-trained brigades, leaving seven for Tarnavskyi's offensive on Melitopol. As a result, the Ukrainians had significantly diverged from the plans they had drawn up with the Americans.
Shaping operations
In the months before the start of the counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces engaged in "shaping operations" to test Russian defenses and weaken logistics and supply chains deep inside Russian-occupied territories. According to Western media, Ukrainian forces had built up an estimated 50,000 to 60,000 soldiers for the counteroffensive, organized into twelve brigades. Three of these were trained in Ukraine, and the other nine were trained and equipped by the United States.Beginning in May 2023, Ukrainian forces engaged in "localized" counterattacks on the flanks of Bakhmut, as part of the larger battle in the city. On 12 May Ukrainian forces forced the Russians out of the southern bank of the Berkhivske Reservoir, about northwest of Bakhmut, and claimed further gains of in the north and southern suburbs of Bakhmut later in the month. Another large-scale Ukrainian counterattack operation began in and around Bakhmut on 5 June, when it was reported that Ukrainian forces had retaken part of the village of Berkhivka, north of Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces claimed to have advanced hundreds of meters in multiple areas around Bakhmut's flanks throughout early June.
On the Zaporizhzhia front, starting on 3 June, the Ukrainian 37th Marine Brigade engaged in a slow but consistent offensive action around the frontline settlement of Novodonetske in the Donetsk Oblast. Without armored support, the marines were able to push back the Vostok Battalion of the DNR's people's militia mostly through the use of artillery. The Ukrainian advance was further aided by the use of armoured personnel carriers to rapidly transport marines to the front, and then withdrawing out of Russian artillery range. Also on 3 June 2023, Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine was ready to launch a counteroffensive. The next day, Ukrainian officials declared an "operational silence" to avoid compromising military operations.