Roy Amara
Roy Charles Amara was an American researcher, scientist, futurist and president of the Institute for the Future best known for coining Amara's law on the effect of technology. He held a BS in Management, an MS in the Arts and Sciences, and a PhD in Systems Engineering, and also worked at the Stanford Research Institute.
Amara's law
His adage, coined in 1978, about forecasting the effects of technology has become known as Amara's law and states:We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
The law has been used in explaining nanotechnology.
Selected bibliography
Books
Reports
- Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference.