Nuclear terrorism

Nuclear terrorism is the use of a nuclear weapon or radiological weapon as an act of terrorism. There are many possible terror incidents, ranging in feasibility and scope. These include the sabotage of a nuclear facility, the intentional irradiation of citizens, or the detonation of a radiological device, colloquially termed a dirty bomb, but consensus is lacking. According to the 2005 United Nations International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism nuclear terrorism is an offense committed if a person unlawfully and intentionally "uses in any way radioactive material … with the intent to cause death or serious bodily injury; or with the intent to cause substantial damage to property or to the environment; or with the intent to compel a natural or legal person, an international organization or a State to do or refrain from doing an act."
The possibility of terrorist organizations using nuclear weapons has been identified by nuclear powers and considered since the conception of nuclear weapons and the rise of global terrorism. Nuclear powers collaborate to prevent terror organizations from acquiring nuclear weapons and fuel.
It is considered plausible that terrorists could acquire a nuclear weapon. As such, countries such as China and the UK have taken steps to restrict access to nuclear weapons and materials. Restrictions being implemented are only a small part of prevention systems that are being researched in countries. Preventing nuclear terrorism is a topic that interests countries who are developing or expanding their nuclear warhead knowledge. Whether it be through policy, summits, or warhead detection and disablement, the idea of threatening another nation is a worry that comes with the notion of war. Nonetheless, despite thefts and trafficking of small amounts of fissile material, there is no credible evidence that any terrorist group has ever obtained or produced nuclear materials of sufficient quantity or purity to produce a viable nuclear weapon.

Scope

Nuclear terrorism could include:

Acquiring or fabricating a nuclear weapon
Fabricating a dirty bomb
Attacking a nuclear reactor, e.g., by disrupting critical inputs
Attacking or taking over a nuclear-armed submarine, plane, or base.

Nuclear terrorism, according to a 2011 report published by the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, can be executed and distinguished via four pathways:

The use of a nuclear weapon that has been stolen or purchased on the black market
The use of a crude explosive device built by terrorists or by nuclear scientists who the terrorist organization has furtively recruited
The use of an explosive device constructed by terrorists and their accomplices using their own fissile material
The acquisition of fissile material from a nation-state.

Former U.S. President Barack Obama called nuclear terrorism "the single most important national security threat that we face". In his first speech to the U.N. Security Council, President Obama stated that "Just one nuclear weapon exploded in a city—be it New York or Moscow, Tokyo or Beijing, London or Paris—could kill hundreds of thousands of people", and warned such an attack could "destabilize our security, our economies, and our very way of life".

History

As early as December 1945, politicians worried about the possibility of smuggling nuclear weapons into the United States, though this was still in the context of a battle between the superpowers of the Cold War. Congressmen quizzed the "father of the atomic bomb", J. Robert Oppenheimer, about the possibility of detecting a smuggled atomic bomb:
This sparked further work on the question of smuggled atomic devices during the 1950s.
Discussions of non-state nuclear terrorism among experts go back at least to the 1970s. In 1975 The Economist warned that "You can make a bomb with a few pounds of plutonium. By the mid-1980s the power stations may easily be turning out 200,000 lb of the stuff each year. And each year, unless present methods are drastically changed, many thousands of pounds of it will be transferred from one plant to another as it proceeds through the fuel cycle. The dangers of robbery in transit are evident.... Vigorous co-operation between governments and the International Atomic Energy Agency could, even at this late stage, make the looming perils loom a good deal smaller." The New York Times commented in 1981 that The Nuclear Emergency Search Team's "origins go back to the aftershocks of the Munich Olympic massacre in mid-1972. Until that time, no one in the United States Government had thought seriously about the menace of organized, international terrorism, much less nuclear terrorism. There was a perception in Washington that the value of what is called 'special nuclear material' – plutonium or highly enriched uranium – was so enormous that the strict financial accountability of the private contractors who dealt with it would be enough to protect it from falling into the wrong hands. But it has since been revealed that the physical safeguarding of bomb-grade material against theft was almost scandalously neglected."
This discussion took on a larger public character in the 1980s after NBC aired Special Bulletin, a television dramatization of a nuclear terrorist attack on the United States. In 1986 a private panel of experts known as the International Task Force on the Prevention of Terrorism released a report urging all nuclear-armed states to beware the dangers of terrorism and work on equipping their nuclear arsenals with permissive action links. "The probability of nuclear terrorism," the experts warned, "is increasing and the consequences for urban and industrial societies could be catastrophic."

Acquisition

Nuclear weapons may be acquired by non-state organisations such as terrorist groups via purchase or theft, either in whole or in part, from state entities. State involvement may be either intentional—as an act of policy—or inadvertent—through failure to exercise sovereignty within their territory over nuclear weapons or materials with which to build them. Robert Litwak, vice-president of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, deemed it unlikely that terrorist groups would be able to effectively create nuclear weapons without enriched uranium. Nevertheless, he speculated that ISIS's control over much of Syria and Iraq, and therefore much of their infrastructure, could lead to them developing "state-like WMD capabilities". Litwak therefore stated that the United States's primary strategy had been to curtail ISIS's territorial gains to deny them the capabilities of a state.

Prevention

Unlike state-level use of nuclear weapons, retaliation is not likely to deter terrorist groups from the use of nuclear weapons, so the doctrine of mutually assured destruction does not apply.
Denial of access to nuclear materials is thus the approach taken by interested nations. Techniques include import and export restrictions, physical security at nuclear facilities to prevent theft, and consolidation or elimination of stockpiles to reduce the security perimeter. The United States subsidizes security for nuclear materials and dismantlement of nuclear weapons through the Cooperative Threat Reduction and Global Threat Reduction Initiative programs.
Different countries have their own proposals for how to secure nuclear materials. In China, during 2020 there was a proposal for security measures to be developed surrounding radioactive material transportation. Similarly, the UK had an approach in 2021. A UK review was published surrounding the use of radiation detection systems with shipping container cargo, and how future systems should be designed as to implement improved detection technologies without negatively impacting the shipping industry.
Efforts to secure nuclear materials are also made by threatening to punish any country that uses, sells, or gives away nuclear weapons or materials. One example of this is when U.S. President George W. Bush threatened North Korea with consequences if they were to engage in such behavior.

Organizations to combat nuclear terrorism

The Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism is an international partnership of 88 nations and 5 official observers working to improve capacity on a national and international level for prevention, detection, and response to a nuclear terrorist event. Partners join the GICNT by endorsing the Statement of Principles, a set of broad nuclear security objectives. GICNT partner nations organize and host workshops, conferences, and exercises to share best practices for implementing the Statement of Principles. The GICNT also holds Plenary meetings to discuss improvements and changes to the partnership.
The World Institute for Nuclear Security is an organization which seeks to prevent nuclear terrorism and improve world nuclear security. It works alongside the International Atomic Energy Agency. WINS was formed in 2008, less than a year after a break-in at the Pelindaba nuclear facility in South Africa, which contained enough enriched uranium to make several nuclear bombs.

Militant groups

s materials on the black market are a global concern, and there is concern about the possible detonation of a small, crude nuclear weapon by a militant group in a major city, with significant loss of life and property.
It is feared that a terrorist group could detonate a dirty bomb, a type of radiological weapon. A dirty bomb is made of any radioactive source and a conventional explosive. There would be no nuclear blast and likely no fatalities, but the radioactive material is dispersed and can cause extensive fallout depending on the material used. There are other radiological weapons called radiological exposure devices where an explosive is not necessary. A radiological weapon may be very appealing to terrorist groups as it is highly successful in instilling fear and panic among a population and would contaminate the immediate area for some period of time, disrupting attempts to repair the damage and subsequently inflicting significant economic losses.