2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine
From the end of February 2014, in the aftermath of the Euromaidan and the Revolution of Dignity, which resulted in the ousting of Russian-leaning Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, demonstrations by Russian-backed, pro-Russian, and anti-government groups took place in Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv and Odesa. The unrest, which was supported by the Russian military and intelligence services, belongs to the early stages of the Russo-Ukrainian war.
During its first phase in February–March 2014, the Ukrainian territory of Crimea was invaded and subsequently annexed by Russia following an internationally unrecognized referendum, with the United Nations General Assembly voting in favor of Ukraine's territorial integrity. Concurrently, protests by anti-Maidan and pro-Russian groups took place across other parts of eastern and southern Ukraine. Local separatists, some directed and financed by the Russian security services, took advantage of the situation and occupied government buildings in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv oblasts in early March 2014. The Ukrainian government was able to quickly quell this unrest, and removed the separatists by 10 March.
Eventually, Kharkiv, Odesa, and most parts of Donbas including Mariupol remained under Ukrainian government control. Russia-controlled DPR and LPR were formed and took control of Donetsk and Luhansk. In the second phase from April 2014, armed Russian-backed groups seized government buildings across Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, together known as the Donbas, and launched a separatist insurgency in the region. To suppress this insurgency, the Ukrainian government began what it called an "Anti-Terrorist Operation", sending in the armed forces to quell the unrest. Unrest in Kharkiv and Odesa oblasts did not escalate into full-scale armed conflict, although dozens of mostly pro-Russian protestors were killed. Order was restored in these regions with the cooperation of the local civil authorities, though pro-Russian disturbances, such as bombings, continued throughout the year.
Background
After the 2004 Orange Revolution, Russia launched a decade-long effort to restore its political influence in Ukraine by playing on existing domestic fault lines and undermining the central government.Despite a crackdown on political opponents in 2011–12, the Verkhovna Rada agreed in early 2013 to work towards fulfilling the requirements for joining the European Union, including legislative reform, protecting human rights, and releasing political prisoners. In response, Russia started pressuring Ukraine in August 2013 by applying customs regulations on imports from the country, which culminated on 14 August 2013 with the Russian Custom Service halting goods coming from Ukraine. This prompted politicians and others to view the move as the start of a trade war against Ukraine to prevent Ukraine from signing a trade agreement with the European Union.
When president Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign an association agreement with the European Union on 21 November 2013, a protest movement dubbed Euromaidan soon developed into the largest democratic mass movement in Europe since 1989, culminating in the Revolution of Dignity, which removed Yanukovych from power following a majority vote in the Verkhovna Rada and led to the dismissal of his government.
Some people in largely Russophone Donbas, the traditional base of support for Yanukovych and his Party of the Regions, did not approve of the revolution, expressing their support for Russia instead. Historian William Jay Risch notes the spread of rumors aimed against the new Ukrainian government spread on TV and social media by local elites and Russian state media in Donbas. Russia actively supported the separatism in Ukraine, including using its high-level actors, such as Kremlin advisers Vladislav Surkov and Sergey Glazyev, who organized some of the pro-Russian protests.
The attendees of pro-Russian protests included Russian citizens from across the border who came to support the efforts of pro-Russian activists in Ukraine. Donetsk Oblast governor Serhiy Taruta said that rallies in Donetsk included ex-convicts and others who travelled from Crimea. Ukraine's police and border guards denied entry to more than 8,200 Russians between 4 and 25 March 2014. On 27 March 2014, National Security and Defence Council Secretary Andriy Parubiy said that between 500 and 700 Russians were being denied entry daily.
Public opinion in Ukraine
A poll conducted by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology from 8–18 February 2014 assessed support for union with Russia throughout Ukraine. It found that, overall, 12% of those polled favoured union with Russia. 68.0% said that Ukraine should remain independent and maintain friendly relations with Russia.Support for a union between Russia and Ukraine was found to be much higher in certain oblasts: 41.0% Crimea, 33.2% Donetsk Oblast, 24.1% Luhansk Oblast, 24.0% Odesa Oblast, 16.7% Zaporizhzhia Oblast, 15.1% Kharkiv Oblast, 13.8% Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Another Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll the following April, of all of the oblasts of southern and eastern Ukraine except Crimea found majority opposition to secession from Ukraine and annexation by Russia in all of these oblasts—albeit only a slight majority in opposition to this in the Donbas. Opposition to secession from Ukraine and annexation by Russia had these percentages in various southern and eastern Ukrainian oblasts: 51.9% Luhansk Oblast, 52.2% Donetsk Oblast, 65.6% Kharkiv Oblast, 78.8% Odesa Oblast, 81.5% Zaporizhzhia Oblast, 84.1% Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, 84.6% Kherson Oblast, 85.4% Mykolaiv Oblast.
In an opinion poll conducted from 14 to 26 March by the International Republican Institute, 26–27% of those polled in southern and eastern Ukraine viewed the Euromaidan protests as a coup d'état. Only 5% of respondents in eastern Ukraine felt that Russian-speakers were 'definitely' under pressure or threat. 13% of respondents in southern Ukraine and 22% in eastern Ukraine viewed Russia's actions in Crimea as protecting Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine, with 37% and 30% viewing them as invasion and occupation.In the poll, 22% of those in southern Ukraine, and 26% of those in eastern Ukraine, supported the idea of federalization for the country; 69% of southerners and 53% of easterners supported Ukraine remaining as a unitary state; and only 2% of southerners and 4% of easterners supported separatism. 59% of those polled in eastern Ukraine would have liked to join the Russian-led customs union, while only 22% were in favour of joining the European Union. 37% of southerners preferred to join this customs union, while 29% were in favour of joining the EU. 90% of those polled in western Ukraine wanted to enter an economic union with EU, while only 4% favoured the customs union led by Russia. Among all the Ukrainians polled overall, 34% favoured joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, while 44% were against joining it. In eastern Ukraine and southern Ukraine, only 14% and 11% of the respondents respectively favour joining NATO, while 67% and 52% oppose joining it. 72% of people polled in eastern Ukraine thought that the country was going in the wrong direction, compared with only 36% in western Ukraine.
A poll conducted by the Donetsk Institute of Social Research and Policy Analysis analysed the identities of Donetsk inhabitants. While support for separatism was low, just over a third of polled Donetsk inhabitants identified themselves as "citizens of Ukraine". More preferred "Russian-speaking residents of Ukraine" or "residents of Donbas". The same poll determined that 66% of Donetsk residents that were polled supported remaining in a unified Ukraine, while 18.2% supported joining Russia, and 4.7% supported independence. A second poll conducted from 26 to 29 March showed that 77% of residents condemned the takeover of administrative buildings, while 16% supported such actions. Furthermore, 40.8% of Donetsk citizens supported rallies for Ukraine's unity, while 26.5% supported pro-Russian rallies.
In another research poll conducted 8–16 April by KIIS, a vast majority disapproved of the seizure of administrative buildings by protesters. 45% of those polled in the south and east of Ukraine considered acting President Oleksandr Turchynov to be legitimate, while over 50% not. Most of those polled in the south and east of Ukraine believed that the disarmament and disbandment of illegal radical groups is crucial to preserving national unity. 19.1% of those polled in the south and east of Ukraine believed that Ukraine should be an independent state, 45.2% were for an independent state but with decentralization of the power to the regions, but most felt Russia and Ukraine should share open borders without visa restrictions; 8.4% were in favour of Ukraine and Russia uniting into a single state. 15.4% said they favoured secession of their region to join the Russian Federation, and 24.8% favoured Ukraine becoming a federation. Most of those polled said they found nothing attractive about Russia, but those who did, did so for economic, and not cultural reasons. Those polled in southern and eastern Ukraine were generally split on the legitimacy of the present government and parliament, but a majority in all regions agreed that deposed president Viktor Yanukovych was not the legal president of the country. In all regions but the Donbas, pro-Euromaidan oligarch Petro Poroshenko dominated preliminary election polls.
A comprehensive poll released on 8 May by the Pew Research Centre surveyed opinions in Ukraine on the subject of the unrest. The poll was taken after the annexation of Crimea, but prior to the clashes in Odesa on 2 May. 93% of westerners and 70% of easterners polled said that they wanted Ukraine to remain united. Despite international criticism of the 16 March referendum on Crimean status, 91% of the Crimeans polled thought that the vote was free and fair, and 88% said that the Ukrainian government should accept the results.