2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election


The 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2023, to elect the governor of Mississippi. Incumbent [Mississippi Mississippi Republican Party|Republican Party|Republican] governor Tate Reeves won re-election to a second term, defeating [Mississippi Mississippi Democratic Party|Democratic Party|Democratic] nominee, Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley.
Primary elections were held on August 8. Reeves won the Republican nomination, while Presley won the Democratic nomination unopposed.
The race was considered to be competitive, with Reeves moderately favored. Despite Reeves winning re-election, this was the worst performance for a winning Republican, the best for a losing Democrat, and the closest Mississippi gubernatorial election since 1999. It was also the closest ever gubernatorial election in the state won by a Republican, and the closest gubernatorial election in the 2023 cycle.
According to Split Ticket estimates, Reeves won 76% of White voters while Presley won 96% of Black voters in the state.

Background

This was the first Mississippi gubernatorial election since a 2020 referendum altered the election process. Previously, under a provision crafted as part of the 1890 Constitution of Mississippi, a candidate needed a majority of voters across the state and a majority of voters in a majority of state House of Representatives districts; if no candidates achieved such a result, the state House of Representatives would choose between the top two finishers, something that only happened in 1999.
This structure was referred to as Mississippi's version of the electoral college; it was originally crafted, in the words of the Mississippi Historical Society, as part of "the legal basis and bulwark of the design of white supremacy". In the 21st century, because the state House districts favor Republican candidates, the provision was seen as helping Republican gubernatorial candidates as well. Under the new law, any candidate who receives a majority of statewide votes will be elected; if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a statewide runoff election between the top two candidates will be held.
A socially conservative Southern state, Mississippi is considered safely Republican at the federal and state levels, with both of its U.S. senators, all but one of its U.S. representatives and all statewide executive officers currently belonging to the Republican Party. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump comfortably carried Mississippi by 17 percentage points. Incumbent governor Tate Reeves was first elected in 2019, narrowly defeating then-attorney general Jim Hood, who was the only Democrat elected to hold statewide office in Mississippi at the time.
Most analysts considered Reeves to be a favorite to win reelection, given the state's partisan lean and incumbency advantage. Nonetheless, the race was considered to be unusually competitive throughout the Fall as polling showed the race within the margin of error. Weaknesses for Reeves included his narrow victory four years prior, the heavy criticism he has faced for his handling of the Jackson water crisis, and for his ties to a welfare corruption scandal, both of which led him to have the lowest approval ratings of any Republican governor in the country. The Democratic nominee, Brandon Presley, was considered to be a strong general election candidate; he represented the Northern district on the Mississippi Public Service Commission since 2008, despite that district having a strong Republican bent, and held relatively moderate views on social issues, thus being closer to fitting the state.
Mississippi has the highest rate of disenfranchisement in the United States and around 16% of the African American voting age population is disenfranchised.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • David Grady Hardigree, U.S. Army veteran
  • John Witcher, physician

Declined

Polling

Tate Reeves vs. Bill Waller Jr.

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tate
Reeves		Bill
Waller Jr.		Undecided
Mississippi Today/Siena CollegeJanuary 3–8, 2023821 ± 4.6%52%29%19%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

  • Bob Hickingbottom, political consultant and Constitution nominee for governor in 2019
  • Gregory Wash, songwriter and candidate for governor in 2019

Declined

Independents

Candidates

Withdrawn

  • Gwendolyn Gray, nonprofit executive ''''

Declined

General election

Endorsements


Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Tate
Reeves 		Brandon
Presley 		Other
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsAugust 20 – October 2, 2023October 5, 202251.5%42.0%6.5%Reeves +9.5%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tate
Reeves 		Brandon
Presley 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling October 19–20, 2023601 ± 4.0%46%45%–10%
Magnolia Tribune/Mason-DixonSeptember 27 – October 2, 2023625 ± 4.0%51%43%–6%
Mississippi Today/Siena CollegeAugust 20–28, 2023650 ± 4.0%52%41%1%6%
Impact Research August 6–9, 2023600 ± 4.0%46%46%–8%
OnMessage Inc. July 7, 2023––49%32%–19%
Impact Research April 24–27, 2023600 ± 4.0%47%44%–9%
Mississippi Today/Siena CollegeApril 16–20, 2023783 ± 4.3%49%38%7%6%
Magnolia Tribune/Mason-DixonMarch 6–10, 2023625 ± 4.0%46%39%–15%
Mississippi Today/Tulchin ResearchJanuary 21–25, 2023500 ± 4.4%43%47%–10%
Mississippi Today/Siena CollegeJanuary 3–8, 2023821 ± 4.6%43%39%2%14%
Impact Research December 2022600 ± 4.0%49%42%–9%

Tate Reeves vs. generic opponent

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tate
Reeves 		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
Mississippi Today/Siena CollegeApril 16–20, 2023783 ± 4.3%36%60%4%
Mississippi Today/Siena CollegeJanuary 3–8, 2023821 ± 4.6%33%57%10%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Reeves won three of four congressional districts.
DistrictReevesPresleyRepresentative
58.0%40.7%Trent Kelly
31.4%67.3%Bennie Thompson
55.7%43.1%Michael Guest
62.3%36.0%Mike Ezell