2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election


The 2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2019, to choose the next governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Governor Phil Bryant was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits. The Democratic Party nominated incumbent Attorney General Jim Hood, the only Democrat holding statewide office in Mississippi; the Republican Party nominated incumbent Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves. In the general election, Reeves defeated Hood by a margin of 5.08%, with Reeves significantly underperforming Donald Trump, who won the state by 18 points in 2016.

Background

Situated in the Deep South as a socially conservative Bible Belt state, Mississippi is one of the most Republican states in the country. No Democrat has been elected to the governorship since Ronnie Musgrove in 1999. However, the state's Democratic Attorney General, Jim Hood, who had held his office since 2004 and had yet to lose a statewide election, put the Republicans' winning streak of four elections in a row to the test, as the race became unusually competitive. Reeves defeated Hood in the general election by a margin of 5.1%, making this the closest a Democrat had come to winning a Mississippi gubernatorial election since 1999. Hood pulled off the best performance by a Democrat since the 2003 Mississippi gubernatorial election, when fellow Democrat Ronnie Musgrove took 45.81% of the vote. Hood flipped the counties of Chickasaw, Lafayette, Madison, Panola, and Warren, which had all voted for Republican Donald Trump in the 2016 United States presidential election.
Uniquely among the states, the Constitution of Mississippi establishes a sort of electoral college at the state level. For the election of governor. Article 5, Section 140 of the state constitution states that each state House district is assigned an electoral vote, and that a candidate running for governor must receive a majority of electoral votes in addition to winning a majority of the popular vote in order to be elected governor. Article 5, Section 141 of the state constitution states that if no candidate wins both a popular and electoral vote majority, the state House of Representatives is assigned to decide the winner, choosing from the two highest popular vote winners. This provision came into play only one time in the state's history; Democratic candidate Ronnie Musgrove in the 1999 gubernatorial election garnered a plurality, but not a majority; the House selected Musgrove.
In the lead-up to the election, controversy emerged over these constitutional provisions establishing a state system of electoral votes, with a federal lawsuit claiming the provisions are racially biased. These provisions were put in place with the 1890 Mississippi Constitution, itself established by the segregationist Redeemers and overturning the Reconstruction-era 1868 Constitution, as part of Jim Crow Era policy to minimize the power of African Americans in politics. Because of this, as well as present gerrymandering that packs African Americans into a small number of districts, the plaintiffs claim the provisions should be struck down on the basis of racial bias.
On November 3, 2020, an amendment was passed removing the electoral college, with 79% of the vote.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Lynn
Fitch
Tate
Reeves
Undecided
JMC AnalyticsFebruary 15–17, 2018500± 4.4%12%21%67%
Mason-DixonDecember 13–15, 2017400± 5.0%18%37%45%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

  • Phillip West, former state representative and former mayor of Natchez

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jim
Hood

Lumumba
Undecided
Triumph CampaignsJanuary 29, 20182,145± 1.8%49%27%23%

Other candidates

Constitution Party

Declared
  • Bob Hickingbottom

Independents

Declared
  • David Singletary, U.S. Air Force veteran and former hotel owner

General election

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tate
Reeves
Jim
Hood
David
Singletary
Bob
Undecided
NBC/Survey MonkeyOctober 8–22, 20191,002 ± 4.7%47%40%7%2%3%
Targoz Market ResearchOctober 13–20, 2019384 47%46%7%
Mason-DixonOctober 17–19, 2019625 ± 4.0%46%43%9%
Hickman AnalyticsOctober 13–16, 2019508 ± 4.4%42%46%
Hickman Analytics September 22–26, 2019500 ± 4.0%42%45%
Hickman Analytics August 11–15, 2019600 ± 4.0%42%43%
NBC News/SurveyMonkeyJuly 2–16, 20191,171 ± 4.2%51%42%6%
Impact Management GroupJune 10–14, 2019610 ± 4.0%48%36%4%12%
Hickman Analytics May 5–9, 2019604 ± 4.0%40%45%
Mason-DixonJanuary 30 – February 1, 2019625 ± 4.0%42%44%14%
OnMessage Inc. January 28–30, 2019600 ± 3.5%51%36%13%
Mason-DixonApril 12–14, 2018625 ± 4.0%39%44%17%
Chism Strategies/Millsaps CollegeDecember 15–19, 2017578 ± 4.1%45%38%18%
Mason-DixonDecember 13–15, 2017625 ± 4.0%37%43%20%

with Tate Reeves, Jim Hood, and Bill Waller Jr.

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tate
Reeves
Jim
Hood
Bill
Waller Jr.
Undecided
Mason-DixonJanuary 30 – February 1, 2019625 ± 4.0%38%40%9%13%

with Bill Waller Jr. and Jim Hood

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Waller Jr.
Jim
Hood
David
Singletary
Undecided
NBC News/SurveyMonkeyJuly 2–16, 20191,171 ± 4.2%53%41%6%
Impact Management GroupJune 10–14, 2019610 ± 4.0%43%36%4%17%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Reeves won three of four congressional districts.
DistrictReevesHoodRepresentative
59%40%Trent Kelly
32%67%Bennie Thompson
54%45%Michael Guest
63%35%Steven Palazzo