2018 United States Senate election in Texas


The 2018 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives in additional states. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz secured a second term, defeating Democratic U.S. Representative Beto O'Rourke. The primary for all parties was held on March 6, 2018, making it the first primary of the 2018 season. As Cruz and O'Rourke both won majorities in their primaries, they did not participate in the May 22 runoff primary that was held for some nominations in Texas.
No Democrat has won a general election for statewide office in Texas since Bob Bullock was reelected as lieutenant governor in 1994, with election forecasters declaring it a safe Republican seat at the beginning of the 2018 cycle. However, O'Rourke gradually closed the gap, and leading up to the election, the race was considered unexpectedly competitive.
On Election Day, Cruz defeated O'Rourke by a margin of just under 215,000 votes, or 2.6 percent; the race was the closest U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1978.
This is the last time the counties of Brewster, Frio, Jefferson, Jim Wells, Kleberg, La Salle, Nueces, Reeves and Val Verde would vote Democratic in a federal senate election.

Background

In 2012, after a stunning upset victory in the Republican primary, then-Solicitor General of Texas Ted Cruz defeated former member of the Texas House of Representatives Paul Sadler by a 16-point margin. Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. As conservatives began turning to the Republican Party in once strongly Democratic areas, Democratic voters in the state were largely based in the majority-Hispanic communities in Southern Texas and in populous metropolitan cities, such as Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas, as well as the heavily Hispanic city of El Paso on the state's western tip, which O'Rourke represented in the U.S. House.
Since 1990, Texas has voted for Republican statewide candidates in all elections, whether it be presidential, gubernatorial, or senatorial, often by large margins. In 1998, Governor George W. Bush won re-election by 37 points over his Democratic challenger, Garry Mauro. In 2000, Governor Bush won Texas by 21 points over Vice President Al Gore. In 2004, President Bush won Texas over Senator John Kerry by 23 points, winning rural areas by landslide margins, capturing urban zones, and coming very close to winning the Latino vote. Democrat Barack Obama was defeated by margins of 12 points in 2008, against John McCain, and 16 points in 2012, against Mitt Romney, respectively. However, in 2016, Donald Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton by only a 9-point margin, demonstrating a possible shift away from the Safe Republican status it had held for over a decade. This has led Democrats to begin targeting Texas as a potential future swing state. It should also be noted that Ted Cruz defeated Donald Trump in the Texas Republican primary for U.S. president in 2016.
As of June 2018, Senator Cruz held a 49%–44% approval rating among Texans in a state Donald Trump won by 9 points against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Among groups that tend to affiliate themselves more with the Democratic Party, Senator Cruz held a 29% approval rating among Hispanics, 37% among women, and 42% among college-educated voters.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Failed to qualify

  • Thomas Dillingham, businessman

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ted
Cruz		Michael
McCaul		OtherUndecided
Dixie StrategiesSeptember 29 – October 1, 2016321± 3.5%52%12%7%29%
Public Policy PollingAugust 12–14, 2016522–51%19%–31%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ted
Cruz		Dan
Patrick		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingAugust 12–14, 2016522–49%27%–24%
Dixie StrategiesAugust 8–9, 2016448–38%23%15%24%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ted
Cruz		Rick
Perry		Undecided
Public Policy PollingAugust 12–14, 2016522–37%46%18%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Nominated

  • Neal Dikeman, businessman

Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Carl Bible, nurse
  • Jonathan Jenkins, tech entrepreneur
  • Bob McNeil, businessman

Declined

General election

Predictions

Notes

Debates

Fundraising

In the third quarter of 2018, O'Rourke raised $38.1 million. This was the largest quarterly total raised by a U.S. Senate candidate until Jaime Harrison raised $57 million in the third quarter of 2020 in the South Carolina election. Cruz and O'Rourke combined to raise a record-setting total of $126 million during the 2018 campaign.

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ted
Cruz 		Beto
O'Rourke 		Neal
Dikeman 		OtherUndecided
Trafalgar Group (R)November 3–5, 20182,135± 2.1%52%43%–1%4%
Change Research (D-Reason to Believe PAC)November 1–2, 20181,211–49%49%1%––
Emerson CollegeOctober 28–30, 2018781± 3.7%50%47%1%–2%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 22–28, 20181,078± 3.5%51%46%–1%3%
University of Texas TylerOctober 15–28, 2018905 LV–47%43%–4%6%
University of Texas TylerOctober 15–28, 20181,033 RV± 3.0%47%42%–4%8%
Dixie StrategiesOctober 25–26, 2018588± 4.0%52%42%––5%
GBA Strategies (D-End Citizens United)October 18–21, 20181,000± 4.0%50%46%2%–2%
University of Texas/YouGovOctober 15–21, 2018927± 3.2%51%45%2%2%–
IpsosOctober 12–18, 20181,298± 3.2%49%44%–3%1%
Tulchin Research (D-MoveOn)October 10–14, 2018600± 4.0%49%45%3%–3%
CNN/SSRSOctober 9–13, 2018716 LV± 4.5%52%45%–0%2%
CNN/SSRSOctober 9–13, 2018862 RV± 4.1%50%45%–0%3%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth)October 8–13, 2018801± 3.5%52%43%1%–4%
NYT Upshot/Siena CollegeOctober 8–11, 2018800± 3.6%51%43%1%–5%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 3–9, 2018730± 4.4%54%45%–0%2%
YouGovOctober 2–5, 2018881–50%44%–2%4%
Emerson CollegeOctober 1–5, 2018500± 4.5%47%42%–3%8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)September 19–20, 2018613± 4.0%48%45%––8%
Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United)September 19–20, 2018603± 4.0%49%46%––5%
Vox Populi PollingSeptember 16–18, 2018508± 4.4%50%50%–––
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 11–17, 2018807± 4.1%54%45%–0%1%
Chism Strategies (D-Reform Austin)September 11–12, 20181,161± 3.0%49%45%––5%
IpsosSeptember 6–14, 2018992± 4.0%45%47%–3%5%
Crosswind Media & Public RelationsSeptember 6–9, 2018800± 4.0%47%44%–––
Dixie StrategiesSeptember 6–7, 2018519± 4.3%46%42%1%–11%
Emerson CollegeAugust 22–25, 2018550± 4.4%38%37%–4%21%
NBC News/MaristAugust 12–16, 2018759± 3.8%49%45%–1%6%
CiviqsAugust 8–11, 2018––47%48%–––
Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United)August 1–2, 2018797± 3.5%46%42%–––
Quinnipiac UniversityJuly 26–31, 20181,118± 3.5%49%43%–0%6%
Texas LyceumJuly 9–26, 2018441 LV± 4.7%41%39%1%–19%
Texas LyceumJuly 9–26, 2018806 RV± 3.5%36%34%3%–24%
Gravis MarketingJuly 3–7, 2018602± 4.0%51%42%––7%
YouGovJune 19–22, 2018821 LV–50%40%–3%7%
YouGovJune 19–22, 20181,025 RV± 3.6%44%36%–3%13%
University of Texas/YouGovJune 8–17, 20181,200± 2.8%41%36%2%3%17%
GQR Research (D-End Citizens United)May 29 – June 5, 20181,000± 3.1%49%43%––8%
Quinnipiac UniversityMay 23–29, 2018961± 3.8%50%39%–0%9%
Baselice & Associates (R-TLRPAC)May 21–28, 2018601± 4.1%48%36%3%1%11%
Public Policy Polling (D-Giffords)May 21–22, 2018861± 3.3%48%42%––10%
JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group)May 19–21, 2018575± 4.1%47%40%–6%7%
Quinnipiac UniversityApril 12–17, 20181,029± 3.6%47%44%–1%8%
Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United)January 17–18, 2018757± 3.6%45%37%––18%
WPA Intelligence (R-Cruz)December 12–14, 2017600± 4.0%52%34%–1%13%
Texas LyceumApril 3–9, 20171,000± 3.1%30%30%–3%37%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ted
Cruz 		Joaquin
Castro 		OtherUndecided
Texas LyceumApril 3–9, 20171,000± 3.1%31%35%3%31%
Public Policy PollingAugust 12–14, 2016944± 3.2%48%36%–16%
Dixie StrategiesAugust 8–9, 20161,018± 3.1%32%31%14%23%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ted
Cruz 		Wendy
Davis 		Undecided
Public Policy PollingAugust 12–14, 2016944± 3.2%49%37%14%

Results

On November 6, 2018, Ted Cruz defeated Beto O'Rourke. However, O'Rourke performed unexpectedly well, outperforming pre-election polling. In addition, O'Rourke flipped numerous counties that Donald Trump carried in 2016, including Williamson, historically conservative Tarrant, Jefferson, Nueces, sparsely populated Brewster, and Hays. Cruz won only one county that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, sparsely populated Kenedy.

By county



Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Cruz won 20 of 36 congressional districts; O'Rourke won the other 16, including three held by Republicans.
DistrictCruzO'RourkeRepresentative
72%28%Louie Gohmert
50%49%Ted Poe
50%49%Dan Crenshaw
51%48%Sam Johnson
51%48%Van Taylor
74%25%John Ratcliffe
60%39%Jeb Hensarling
60%39%Lance Gooden
51%48%Joe Barton
51%48%Ron Wright
46%53%John Culberson
46%53%Lizzie Fletcher
71%28%Kevin Brady
19%81%Al Green
49%50%Michael McCaul
78%22%Mike Conaway
60%39%Kay Granger
79%20%Mac Thornberry
58%41%Randy Weber
42%57%Vicente Gonzalez
26%74%Beto O'Rourke
26%74%Veronica Escobar
54%45%Bill Flores
20%79%Sheila Jackson Lee
72%28%Jodey Arrington
33%66%Joaquín Castro
50%49%Lamar Smith
50%49%Chip Roy
50%49%Pete Olson
47%52%Will Hurd
48%51%Kenny Marchant
52%47%Roger Williams
57%42%Michael Burgess
60%39%Michael Cloud
41%59%Henry Cuellar
25%74%Gene Green
25%74%Sylvia Garcia
18%82%Eddie Bernice Johnson
51%48%John Carter
44%55%Pete Sessions
44%55%Colin Allred
22%77%Marc Veasey
42%58%Filemon Vela Jr.
27%72%Lloyd Doggett
71%28%Brian Babin