2015–16 North American winter
The 2015–16 North American winter was not as frigid across North America and the United States as compared to the 2013–14 and 2014–15 winters. This was mainly due to a strong El Niño, which caused generally warmer-than-average conditions. However, despite the warmth, significant weather systems still occurred, including a snowstorm and flash [flooding in Texas] at the end of December and a large tornado outbreak at the end of February. The main event of the winter season, by far and large, was when January 2016 [United States blizzard|a crippling and historic blizzard] struck the Northeastern United States in late January, dumping up to of snow in and around the metropolitan areas. Several other smaller snow events affected the Northeast as well, but for the most part the heaviest snowstorms and ice stayed out further west, such as a severe blizzard in western Texas in late December, and a major late-season snowstorm in Colorado in mid-April.
While there is no well-agreed-upon date used to indicate the start of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, there are two definitions of winter which may be used. Based on the astronomical definition, winter begins at the winter solstice, which in 2015 occurred late on December 21, and ends at the March equinox, which in 2016 occurred on March 20. Based on the meteorological definition, the first day of winter is December 1 and the last day February 29. Both definitions involve a period of approximately three months, with some variability. Winter is often defined by meteorologists to be the three calendar months with the lowest average temperatures. Since both definitions span the calendar year, it is possible to have a winter storm in two different years.
Seasonal forecasts
On October 15, 2015, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center issued its U.S. Winter Outlook. The presence of a strong El Niño event was expected to affect weather and climate patterns by influencing the position of the Pacific jet stream. According to CPC deputy director Mike Halpert at the time of the outlook, "A strong El Niño is in place and should exert a strong influence over our weather this winter" and "While temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are favored, El Niño is not the only player. Cold-air outbreaks and snow storms will likely occur at times this winter. However, the frequency, number and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale." Other oscillations anticipated to have some effect on winter in the United States were the Arctic oscillation and the Madden–Julian oscillation. The precipitation outlook indicated an elevated likelihood of above-average levels precipitation from central and southern California to Texas and Florida and northward to southern parts of New England. Above-average precipitation was also favored in southeastern Alaska, with below-average levels of precipitation favored in central and western Alaska, parts of the Northwestern U.S. and northern Rocky Mountain states, and areas in the vicinity of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.The temperature outlook favored below-average temperatures in the southern Plains and Southeastern United States. Above-average temperatures were most favored across the West and the northern half of the contiguous United States and Alaska and Hawaii. The drought outlook anticipated improvement in conditions in central and southern California by the end of January 2016, noting the possibility of additional alleviation of drought conditions in February and March. The outlook favored the removal of drought across large parts of the Southwestern U.S., with additional lessening or elimination of drought conditions likely in the southern Plains. Drought conditions were expected to persist across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains, with development likely in Hawaii and areas in the vicinity of the northern Great Lakes region.
On November 30, 2015, Environment Canada issued its winter outlook for December, January, and February, as part of their monthly climate outlooks. Above-average temperatures were favoured throughout most of Canada, with the exception of northern Quebec and the southern tip of Baffin Island; areas that were considered the most likely to see above normal temperatures included the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, the Maritime provinces, southern Newfoundland, central Quebec and Ontario, and northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan; in those areas, the probability of above-normal temperatures was over 80%. The areas where below-normal temperatures were favoured included extreme northern areas of Quebec and Labrador, along with southern parts of Baffin Island. Above average precipitation was favoured in the Lower Mainland of B.C., New Brunswick, northern Quebec, northern Newfoundland, the Northwest Territories, and western Nunavut. Below-average precipitation was favoured on the south-eastern tip of Baffin Island and a small area just north of Lake Superior.
Seasonal summary
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The winter of 2015–16 was quite unusual in terms of winter weather. First, around the end of November near Black Friday, a crippling ice storm hit the Southern and Central Plains with as much as of ice accumulation in some areas, knocking out power to over 100,000 residents. In December, two winter storms impacted the Great Lakes, with the latter one being a bit farther to the west, both brought roughly a foot of snow in some locations. Normally, in this area, this is not common, but the strong El Niño may have been a contributor to this. Following that, the nation had one of the warmest Decembers on record, with New York City being as warm as on Christmas Eve. This was the warmest temperature in New York City in the second half of December on record. The low that day of was the warmest December low on record in New York. In fact, across the Lower 48, this was the warmest and wettest December on record at the time. Every single state in the Northeastern United States saw a record warm December. In 2021, an even warmer December was recorded across the Lower 48, with a mean temperature of rather than. This meant Buffalo, New York until December 18, a record for latest first snow. A strong tornado outbreak also occurred from December 23–25, which a very similar event had occurred the year before, just weaker. After this system passed, a larger storm complex moved through the same areas impacted by the ice storm from Black Friday 2015. This storm brought blizzard conditions to parts of Texas and New Mexico, with areas reaching up to close to 2 feet of snow in parts of Texas, which is a rare event in that state. For comparison, the last time this has occurred, was in 2011 during the Groundhog Day blizzard.
The month of January 2016 was variable in its weather patterns. Following the warm trend in December, an early cold snap brought close-to-average temperatures to the East Coast, at the same time a storm complex was moving through the Northeast, and due to the fresh batch of cold air, it was able to produce some snow on the back side of it. At the opposite end of the spectrum, the West Coast was receiving needed rainfall to help during its long-time drought. This brief period of relief soon ended. After that, around January 16–17, a potent storm system moved up the East Coast, bringing the first snowfall of the season to areas like Philadelphia and New York City. A few days later, an Alberta clipper moved through the central United States, producing a swath of snow from Illinois to North Carolina. This small system was then proceeded and eclipsed by a crippling and historic blizzard just days later on January 22–23. Cities like Washington D.C., Philadelphia, and New York City were buried with of snow, breaking numerous records. At the start of February, another snowstorm kicked off the month with a swath of snow from Colorado to Michigan. Snow accumulations ranged from, along with winds up to. After the storm system passed, its cold front transformed into another snowstorm for the East Coast, with snowfall amounts up to 8 inches. Multiple winter storms proceeded to affect the Northeast during a two-week period in early-to-mid February, and the coldest air of the season arrived by February 14, parts of the Northeast on February 14, with temperatures dipping to as low as, shattering many record low temperatures.
Historic flash flooding occurred in the southern U.S due to a very slow-moving system in early March. At the same time, record-breaking temperatures pushed into the Northeast, with some areas reaching into the low 80s. Later that month, another blizzard occurred in the High Plains, and dropped up to of snow in parts of the High Plains and the Great Lakes through March 23–25, along with bringing a significant ice storm to parts of New England, with accumulations of of ice in some areas. The final winter weather event occurred in mid-April, upper-level low stalled in the West, producing a major snowstorm that affected the High Plains and Rocky Mountains in areas near the Denver metropolitan area, dumping up to of heavy snow, which led to power outages. The storm also produced record rainfall of up to, leading to severe flash floods.
Events
Late November ice storm
Around Black Friday of 2015, a major ice storm occurred in the Southern Central Plains, with areas receiving up to of the frozen precipitation. Residents in the areas were without powers for days, if not weeks. The storm also brought snow to parts of the Midwest, with accumulations up to of snow. Historic rainfall also fell too, breaking numerous records.On November 25, an area of low pressure system moved through the West and central Midwest, dropping snow of up to, and also brought the first cold blast of the winter season. At the same time, incoming moisture from weakening Hurricane Sandra in the East Pacific was starting to streak through Mexico into the southwestern United States. Interacting with the low pressure area, this combined to produce a plume of precipitation from ice to rain from southern Texas into Minnesota, due to high pressure situated off Maine keeping the Northeast dry for the holiday.
While causing a potent ice storm on its cold side, on the warm sector of the system, severe floods occurred as well, with areas like McKinney in Texas receiving up to of rain over a 4-day period, causing major flooding. Some areas even broke their records for yearly rainfall totals from this system, due to the axis of moisture shooting into Canada. In total, 17 people died, including six in Kansas, three in Texas, three in Missouri and one in Utah, and over 110,000 left without power, especially around Oklahoma City.
Post-Christmas storm complex
Two days after Christmas, a large storm complex with snow, severe weather and heavy rainfall impacted the Southern Plains and southern Rocky Mountains, including all or parts of the states of Colorado, New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma. The system spawned tornadoes over central and eastern Texas and Oklahoma, while bringing blizzard conditions to the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, most areas in New Mexico, and southern Colorado. The main area of low pressure moved northeast from the southern Plains to the eastern Great Lakes, while a secondary low pressure system formed east of the Delmarva Peninsula on December 29. After impacting New Mexico and the Texas panhandle with record snowfall, the storm system left a swath of snow and ice accumulation from western Oklahoma to Michigan. On December 29, the storm system brought a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to New York State and New England.On December 26, 2015, it affected parts of the Texas Panhandle and resulted in the formation of tornadoes in the Dallas area, including an EF4 which struck the Garland area that evening.
Mid-January Mid-Atlantic snowstorm
A relatively minor storm, similar to an Alberta clipper, caught numerous drivers off-guard, producing a brief period of heavy snow during rush hour in the Mid-Atlantic region on January 20. Although only of snow fell in Washington, D.C., roadways were not treated; any snow that melted on roads quickly froze into black ice, rendering them impassable. Some referred to the event as "Carmageddon 2.0". Portions of Interstate 95 and Interstate 495 in Virginia and Maryland, as well as Interstate 270, were brought to a standstill through the early hours of January 21. Virginia State Police responded to 767 accidents and 392 reports of disabled vehicles. The Virginia Department of Transportation mobilized 115 salt trucks to clear roads. A man was killed after being struck by a snow plow in Beltsville, Maryland. Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser issued an apology for inadequate preparations in the wake of the storm on January 22. Vehicles in Maryland became stranded, with some residents abandoning their cars altogether.Georgia Governor Nathan Deal issued a state of emergency for northern counties on January 19, ensuring areas were better prepared than during a similar storm in 2014. Icy conditions prompted road closures in northern Georgia, including portions of Interstate 75; several crashes resulted from the dangerous conditions. Similar conditions affected Tennessee and Kentucky; schools closed on account of dangerous roads. One person died and another was injured in an accident in Knox County after speeding on slippery roads. Two deaths resulted from snow-related car accidents in North Carolina. Another person died, and two others were injured, when a car collided with a salt truck in Whitley County, Kentucky.
Late January blizzard
A crippling and historic blizzard occurred from January 22–23 in the Mid-Atlantic states. The storm was given various unofficial names, including Winter Storm Jonas, Blizzard of 2016, and Snowzilla among others. The highest reported snowfall was in Glengary, West Virginia. Locations in five states exceeded of snow. The storm dropped of snow in Washington, D.C., 22 inches in Philadelphia, in Baltimore, in New York City. States of emergency were declared in Maryland, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, West Virginia, Virginia, Delaware, New York, and Washington, D.C. The storm also caused coastal flooding in Delaware and New Jersey. Cape May, New Jersey set a record high water level at, higher than the seen during Hurricane Sandy. High winds led to blizzard conditions in many areas. Sustained winds of with gust of were recorded in Delaware. gusts were also recorded in Massachusetts.Groundhog Day winter storm
A trailing low pressure system to the previous weeks' blizzard had developed offshore California on January 29. The low and accompanying precipitation moved onshore the next day. At the time blizzard conditions were expected. The storm moved eastward into the Great Plains where tremendous snowfall occurred. On February 1, another area of low pressure led to severe weather across the Southeastern United States. Multiple tornadoes were reported in Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee, including a large EF2 tornado. After the storm had passed, the cold front associated with it stalled over the East Coast late on February 4. A new low pressure developed off North Carolina that night and started to track up the coast. It impacted areas already hit hard by the previous blizzard about two weeks prior, and caused messy travel along Interstate 95. The storm brought a quick but moderate-to-heavy burst of steady snow, with some areas in New England receiving up to.Early February nor'easter
On February 7, an elongated area of low pressure developed offshore to the west of Florida. While moving inland, it produced a decent dose of rainfall to the Sunshine State as it moved to the northeast. Later the same day, it moved offshore into the Atlantic Ocean and began to undergo bombogenesis, its pressure dropping from at 7a.m. EST February 7 to at 1a.m. EST February 8. As it did so, it also began to transition into a nor'easter, as rainbands began to impact the eastern edges of North Carolina and South Carolina. There was some cold air aloft, allowing for a few areas of wet snow to develop further inland. As the cyclone continued to strengthen, it started to achieve the conditions of a bomb cyclone. Furthermore, the system started to form an eye compared to that of a typical Category 1 hurricane, however this was short-lived and dissolved a few hours later. Snowbands began to impact New England early in the morning of February 8, with some bands reaching up to snowfall rates of an inch per hour, especially near the coast. The outermost bands did not reach New Jersey and New York City, due to the nor'easter being far offshore. The storm continued to deepen for a few more hours before reaching its peak intensity of. The system then continued to weaken as it moved northward, before finally merging with another low pressure system on February 10 to the south of it which had also exited from the East Coast.Mid-February cold wave
During mid-February, record-breaking cold temperatures swung across the Northeast United States and southeastern Canada. On 13 February 2016, Whiteface Mountain underwent a record windchill of, while in Boston, Massachusetts, the temperature dropped to, the coldest since 1957. The windchill descended to, surpassing the previous record by. In Toronto, Ontario, the NBA All-Star Weekend took place in temperatures of and wind chills near, causing some players and visitors to complain about the cold. The recorded temperatures were the coldest recorded since a very similar cold wave impacted the region exactly a year prior. In New York City, the temperature in Central Park gets below for the first time since January 19, 1994, and the windchill at JFK Airport on February 14 at 6:30am hit. The low of set a record for the coldest Valentines Day on record. Bridgeport, Connecticut experienced its coldest February temperature, and 2nd coldest all time temperature, at. Meanwhile, Binghamton hit. Windchills in Worcester, Massachusetts sunk to.In spite of temperatures in New York on February 14, by February 16, the temperature reached. Meanwhile, despite Toronto having a windchill on February 14 of, the next day it felt like.