Estimates of historical world population


This article lists current estimates of the world population in history. In summary, estimates for the progression of world population since the Late Middle Ages are in the following ranges:
Year14001500160017001800190020002100
population
350M–400M430M–500M500M–580M600M–680M890M–980M1,560M–1,710M6,060M–6,150M 10,000M–13,000M
average annual growth<0.1%<0.12%0.15%–0.3%0.1%–0.15%0.3%–0.5%0.5%–0.6%1.3%–1.4%0.7%–0.8%

Estimates for pre-modern times are necessarily fraught with great uncertainties, and few of the published estimates have confidence intervals; in the absence of a straightforward means to assess the error of such estimates, a rough idea of expert consensus can be gained by comparing the values given in independent publications. Population estimates cannot be considered accurate to more than two decimal digits; for example, the world population for the year 2012 was estimated at 7.02, 7.06, and 7.08 billion by the United States Census Bureau, the Population Reference Bureau, and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, respectively, corresponding to a spread of estimates of the order of 0.8%.

Deep prehistory

As a general rule, the confidence of estimates on historical world population decreases for the more distant past. Robust population data exist only for the last two or three centuries. Until the late 18th century, few governments had ever performed an accurate census. In many early attempts, such as in Ancient Egypt and the Persian Empire, the focus was on counting merely a subset of the population for purposes of taxation or military service. Published estimates for the 1st century suggest uncertainty of the order of 50%. Some estimates extend their timeline into deep prehistory, to "10,000 BCE", i.e., the early Holocene, when world population estimates range roughly between 1 and 10 million.
Estimates for yet deeper prehistory, into the Paleolithic, are of a different nature. At this time, human populations consisted entirely of non-sedentary hunter-gatherer populations, with anatomically modern humans existing alongside archaic human varieties, some of which are still ancestral to the modern human population due to interbreeding with modern humans during the Upper Paleolithic. Estimates of the size of these populations are a topic of paleoanthropology. A late human population bottleneck is postulated by some scholars at approximately 70,000 years ago, during the Toba catastrophe, when Homo sapiens population may have dropped to as low as between 1,000 and 10,000 individuals. For the time of speciation of Homo sapiens, some 200,000 years ago, an effective population size of the order of 10,000 to 30,000 individuals has been estimated, with an actual "census population" of early Homo sapiens of roughly 100,000 to 300,000 individuals.
Estimates regarding the questions of "how many people have ever lived?" or "what percentage of people who have ever lived are alive today?" can be traced to the 1970s. The more dramatic phrasing of "the living outnumber the dead" also dates to the 1970s, a time of population explosion and growing fears of human overpopulation in the wake of decolonization and before the adoption of China's one-child policy. The claim that "the living outnumber the dead" was never accurate. Arthur C. Clarke in 2001: A Space Odyssey has the claim that "Behind every man now alive stand 30 ghosts, for that is the ratio by which the dead outnumber the living", which was roughly accurate at the time of writing.
Recent estimates of the "total number of people who have ever lived" are in the order of 100 billion. The answer depends on the definition of "people", i.e., whether only Homo sapiens are to be counted, or all of the genus Homo; due to the small population sizes in the Lower Paleolithic, however, the order of magnitude of the estimate is not affected by the choice of cut-off date substantially more than by the uncertainty of estimates throughout the Neolithic to Iron Age. Importantly, the estimate is also affected by the estimate of infant mortalities vs. stillborn infants, due to the very high rate of infant mortality throughout the pre-modern period. An estimate on the "total number of people who have ever lived" as of 1995 was calculated by Haub at "about 105 billion births since the dawn of the human race" with a cut-off date at 50,000 BC, and inclusion of a high infant mortality rate throughout pre-modern history.

Historical population

Before 1950

The following table uses astronomical year numbering for dates, negative numbers corresponding roughly to the corresponding year BCE. The table starts counting approximately 10,000 years before present, or around 8,000 BCE, during the middle Greenlandian, about 1,700 years after the end of the Younger Dryas and 1,800 years before the 8.2-kiloyear event.
From the beginning of the early modern period until the 20th century, world population has been characterized by a rapid growth. For the period of Classical antiquity to the Middle Ages, roughly 500 BCE to CE 1500, there was also a general tendency of growth, but not strictly monotonic: A noticeable dip in world population is assumed due to the Black Death in the mid-14th century.
YearPRB
UN
Maddison
HYDE
Biraben
McEvedy &
Jones 		Thomlinson
Durand
Clark (economist)|Clark]
Gapminder
−100002M4M1–10M4M
−90004M
−80005M5M5–10M
−70007M8M
−600014M11M
−500027M18M5M5–20M5M
−400050M28M7M7M
−3000100M45M14M14M
−200072M27M27M
−1000100M115M50M50M
−500150M
−200227M150M150M
1300M300M226M188M255M170M226270–330M256M170M
100195M
200202M256M190M190M
300205M
350254M
400209M206M190M190M
500280M210M206M190M190M
600213M206M200M237M200M
700226M207M210M207M
800240M224M220M261M224M
900269M226M240M226M
1000400M310M267M295M254M265M275–345M280M254M
1100450M353M301M320M301M
1200500M393M400M360M384M400M
1250400M416M416M
1300500M392M432M360M400M432M
1340443M378M443M
1400500M390M374M350M374M
1500600M500M438M461M425M440–540M427M460M
1600600M556M554M579M545M498M579M
1650545M500M516M579M
1700660M603M603M1079M1010M1000M1041M1079M
1750791M814M700M770M
18001,000M978M989M900M985M
18201,042M1,093M
18501,265M1,262M1,189M1,263M1,241M1,200M1,200M1,278M
18701,272M1,347M
18751,325M1,383M
19001,656M1,650M1,547M1,654M1,633M1,625M1,600M1,650–1,710M1,668M1,645M
19101,750M1,777M1,790M
19131,793M1,829M
19201,860M1,935M1,912M1,968M1,924M
19252,000M2,000M2,007M
19302,070M2,092M2,145M2,100M
19402,300M2,240M2,307M2,340M2,324M

1950 to 2016

After, demographic data of some accuracy becomes available for a significant number of countries, and population estimates are often given as grand totals of numbers of widely diverging accuracies. Some sources give these numbers rounded to the nearest million or the nearest thousand, while others give them without any rounding.
Taking these numbers at face value would be false precision; in spite of being stated to four, seven, or even ten digits, they should not be interpreted as accurate to more than three digits at best.
YearUnited States Census Bureau Population Reference Bureau United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Maddison HYDE Biraben McEvedy & Jones Thomlinson Durand Clark
19502,557,628,6542,516,000,0002,525,149,0002,518,196,0002,527,960,0002,527,000,0002,500,000,0002,400,000,0002,486,000,000
19512,594,939,8772,572,850,9172,571,663,000
19522,636,772,3062,619,292,0682,617,949,000
19532,682,053,3892,665,865,3922,665,959,000
19542,730,228,1042,713,172,0272,716,927,000
19552,782,098,9432,761,650,9812,769,074,000
19562,835,299,6732,811,572,0312,822,502,000
19572,891,349,7172,863,042,7952,879,934,000
19582,948,137,2482,916,030,1672,939,254,000
19593,000,716,5932,970,395,8142,995,909,000
19603,043,001,5083,026,002,9423,028,866,0003,042,000,000
19613,083,966,9293,082,830,2663,082,161,000
19623,140,093,2173,141,071,5313,135,787,0003,036,000,000
19633,209,827,8823,201,178,2773,201,354,000
19643,281,201,3063,263,738,8323,266,477,000
19653,350,425,7933,329,122,4793,333,138,000
19663,420,677,9233,397,475,2473,402,224,0003,288,000,000
19673,490,333,7153,468,521,7243,471,464,000
19683,562,313,8223,541,674,8913,543,086,000
19693,637,159,0503,616,108,7493,615,743,000
19703,712,697,7423,691,172,6163,674,961,0003,710,000,0003,637,000,0003,600,000,0003,600,000,000– 3,700,000,0003,632,000,000
19713,790,326,9483,766,754,3453,769,818,000
19723,866,568,6533,842,873,6113,846,499,000
19733,942,096,4423,919,182,3323,905,392,0003,923,000,0003,860,000,000
19744,016,608,8133,995,304,9223,979,893,000
19754,089,083,2334,071,020,4344,052,545,0003,900,000,0004,000,000,000
19764,160,185,0104,146,135,8504,122,922,000
19774,232,084,5784,220,816,7374,194,663,000
19784,304,105,7534,295,664,8254,266,854,000
19794,379,013,9424,371,527,8714,343,592,000
19804,451,362,7354,449,048,7984,417,980,0004,461,000,000
19814,534,410,1254,528,234,6344,492,770,000
19824,614,566,5614,608,962,4184,564,600,000
19834,695,736,7434,691,559,8404,652,722,000
19844,774,569,3914,776,392,8284,732,182,000
19854,856,462,6994,863,601,5174,812,663,000
19864,940,571,2324,953,376,7104,895,197,000
19875,027,200,4925,045,315,8714,980,227,000
19885,114,557,1675,138,214,6885,066,394,000
19895,201,440,1105,230,000,0005,153,239,000
19905,288,955,9345,320,816,6675,240,990,0005,308,000,000
19915,371,585,9225,408,908,7245,327,230,000
19925,456,136,2785,494,899,5705,412,406,000
19935,538,268,3165,578,865,1095,489,405,000
19945,618,682,1325,661,086,3465,569,286,000
19955,699,202,9855,760,000,0005,741,822,4125,650,382,000
19965,779,440,5935,821,016,7505,731,639,000
19975,857,972,5435,840,000,0005,898,688,3375,811,891,000
19985,935,213,2485,975,303,6575,890,722,000
19996,012,074,9226,051,478,0105,969,267,000
20006,088,571,3836,067,000,0006,127,700,4286,047,911,0006,145,000,0005,750,000,000
20016,165,219,2476,137,000,0006,204,147,0266,125,941,000
20026,242,016,3486,215,000,0006,280,853,8176,204,528,000
20036,318,590,9566,314,000,0006,357,991,7496,282,870,000
20046,395,699,5096,396,000,0006,435,705,5956,361,171,000
20056,473,044,7326,477,000,0006,514,094,6056,439,565,000
20066,551,263,5346,555,000,0006,593,227,9776,518,903,000
20076,629,913,7596,625,000,0006,673,105,9376,599,686,000
20086,709,049,7806,705,000,0006,753,649,2286,681,610,000
20096,788,214,3946,809,972,0006,834,721,9336,763,350,000
20106,858,584,7556,892,319,0006,916,183,4826,844,270,000
20116,935,999,4916,986,951,0006,997,998,7606,926,423,000
20127,013,871,3137,057,075,0007,080,072,4177,010,582,000
20137,092,128,0947,136,796,0007,162,119,4347,093,643,000
20147,169,968,1857,238,184,0007,243,784,0007,181,310,000
20157,247,892,7887,336,435,0007,349,472,0007,263,546,000
20167,325,996,7097,418,151,8417,346,251,000

Historical estimates by region and country

By region

The regional makeup of the world's has changed dramatically in the past two thousand years. In 1 CE, population in Asia was more than 4 times the European population, and the combined population of Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America totaled roughly 6 percent of the world's population. The total population of the "Western Offshoots"--the former British colonies of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States--made up less than 0.5% of the total. The distribution of population by region in 2022 looks very different: Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa are home to nearly a quarter of the people in the world, and more than 5% live in the four "Western Offshoots" nations.
The rate of growth of the world's population changed dramatically as well, rising more than a hundred-fold from an average population growth of less than a tenth of a percent per year from 1-1000 CE to 1.9% average annual growth between 1950 and 1975. Growth has slowed substantially in the years since, averaging 1.1% annual growth between 2000 and 2022.
Region110001500160017001820187019001950197520002022
East Asia62.6M
66.5M
118.4M
178.5M
165.0M
427.8M
409.2M
457.1M
670.4M
1,099.5M
1,483.7M
1,634.8M
South Asia and Southeast Asia77.8M
80.2M
120.7M
146.7M
178.1M
255.7M
327.7M
366.0M
652.0M
1,127.7M
1,889.9M
2,545.7M
Eastern Europe8.7M
13.6M
30.4M
37.7M
45.3M
91.2M
142.2M
195.5M
266.9M
366.4M
407.5M
407.2M
Western Europe24.8M
25.3M
57.8M
74.4M
83.0M
139.5M
191.9M
236.9M
304.9M
361.9M
390.2M
430.0M
Sub-Saharan Africa8.3M
21.8M
38.3M
44.3M
51.8M
63.3M
70.0M
86.0M
178.9M
327.9M
652.5M
1,174.7M
Demographics of [the Middle East and North Africa|Middle East and North Africa]21.7M
24.0M
19.6M
25.1M
23.7M
35.9M
45.8M
56.0M
103.8M
198.8M
375.7M
560.4M
Latin America5.6M
11.4M
17.5M
8.6M
12.1M
20.7M
39.0M
62.7M
164.2M
320.1M
512.7M
647.2M
Western Offshoots1.1M
1.9M
2.8M
2.3M
1.8M
11.2M
46.1M
86.4M
176.5M
256.1M
335.7M
403.0M
World225.8M
267.3M
438.4M
556.1M
603.5M
1,042.0M
1,272.0M
1,546.5M
2,518.2M
4,052.5M
6,047.9M
7,802.0M
World population growth per year+0.0%+0.1%+0.2%+0.1%+0.5%+0.4%+0.7%+1.0%+1.9%+1.6%+1.1%

By country

The historical population for many countries in the world is difficult to estimate before the past several hundred years due to incomplete recordkeeping or insufficient archaeological evidence. However, the Maddison Project has been able to estimate the populations of 43 countries back to 1 CE. They show that the two countries with the largest populations in 2022, India and China, were also the world's most populous countries more than two thousand years ago. Western European populations generally grew slowly until the late 18th century, when the Industrial Revolution caused both standards of living and populations to rise rapidly.
Country/Region110001500160017001820187019001950197520002022
East Asia------------
China59.6M59.0M103.0M160.0M138.0M381.0M358.0M400.0M546.8M916.4M1,258.7M1,401.7M
Japan3.0M7.5M15.4M18.5M27.0M31.0M34.4M44.1M83.8M111.6M126.8M124.8M
Eastern Europe------------
Albania0.2M0.2M0.2M0.2M0.3M0.4M0.6M0.8M1.2M2.4M3.1M2.8M
Bulgaria0.5M0.8M0.8M1.3M1.3M2.2M2.6M4.0M7.3M8.7M8.1M6.7M
Czechoslovakia 1.0M1.3M3.0M4.5M4.5M7.7M10.2M12.1M12.4M14.8M15.6M16.1M
Hungary0.3M0.5M1.3M1.3M1.5M4.1M5.9M7.1M9.3M10.5M10.2M9.7M
Poland0.5M1.2M4.0M5.0M6.0M10.4M16.9M24.8M24.8M34.0M38.3M37.9M
Romania0.8M0.8M2.0M2.0M2.5M6.4M9.2M11.0M16.3M21.2M22.3M19.3M
USSR 3.9M7.1M17.0M20.7M26.6M54.8M88.7M124.5M179.6M254.5M288.7M294.4M
Yugoslavia 1.5M1.8M2.3M2.8M2.8M5.2M8.3M11.2M16.3M20.7M22.5M20.9M
Latin America------------
Mexico2.2M4.5M7.5M2.5M4.5M6.6M9.2M13.6M28.5M60.7M98.4M125.2M
Middle East and North Africa------------
Algeria2.0M2.0M1.5M2.3M1.8M2.7M3.8M5.5M8.9M16.1M30.5M44.1M
Egypt4.5M5.0M4.0M5.0M4.5M4.2M7.1M12.1M21.2M37.0M67.4M110.6M
Iran4.0M4.5M4.0M5.0M5.0M6.6M8.4M11.0M16.4M33.3M65.4M85.1M
Iraq1.0M2.0M1.0M1.3M1.0M1.1M1.6M2.6M5.2M11.1M22.7M40.4M
Libya0.4M0.5M0.5M0.5M0.5M0.5M1.0M2.6M5.1M7.2M
Morocco1.0M2.0M1.5M2.3M1.8M2.7M3.8M5.1M9.3M17.7M28.7M37.1M
Tunisia0.8M1.0M0.8M1.0M0.8M0.9M1.2M1.9M3.5M5.7M9.5M11.9M
Turkey8.0M7.0M6.3M7.9M8.4M10.1M11.8M15.0M21.1M40.5M65.9M87.2M
South and South East Asia------------
India75.0M75.0M110.0M135.0M165.0M209.0M253.0M284.5M359.0M607.0M1,018.7M1,349.1M
Indonesia2.8M5.2M10.7M11.7M13.1M17.9M32.7M45.1M82.6M131.2M211.4M273.4M
Sub-Saharan Africa------------
Ethiopia0.5M1.0M2.0M2.3M2.5M3.2M20.6M33.8M65.2M117.9M
Mozambique0.1M0.3M1.0M1.3M1.5M2.1M6.3M10.4M16.8M28.9M
South Africa0.1M0.3M0.6M0.7M1.0M1.6M2.5M6.2M13.6M25.8M47.0M63.4M
Sudan 2.0M3.0M4.0M4.2M4.4M5.2M6.3M12.5M26.8M46.5M
Western Europe------------
Austria0.5M0.7M2.0M2.5M2.5M3.4M4.5M6.0M6.9M7.6M8.1M9.1M
Belgium0.3M0.4M1.4M1.6M2.0M3.4M5.1M6.7M8.6M9.8M10.3M11.7M
Denmark0.2M0.4M0.6M0.7M0.7M1.2M1.9M2.6M4.3M5.1M5.4M5.9M
Finland0.0M0.0M0.3M0.4M0.4M1.2M1.8M2.6M4.0M5.2M5.6M5.2M
France5.0M6.5M15.0M18.5M21.5M31.3M38.4M40.6M42.5M54.0M60.8M68.3M
Germany3.0M3.5M12.0M16.0M15.0M24.9M39.2M54.4M68.4M78.7M81.5M83.8M
Greece2.0M1.0M1.0M1.5M1.5M2.3M3.7M5.0M7.6M9.1M10.7M10.4M
Italy8.0M5.0M10.5M13.1M13.3M20.2M27.9M33.7M47.1M55.6M57.0M59.0M
Netherlands0.2M0.3M1.0M1.5M1.9M2.3M3.6M5.1M10.1M13.7M15.9M17.7M
Norway0.1M0.2M0.3M0.4M0.5M1.0M1.7M2.2M3.3M4.0M4.5M5.5M
Portugal0.4M0.6M1.0M1.1M2.0M3.3M4.3M5.4M8.4M9.4M10.2M10.2M
Spain3.8M4.0M6.8M8.2M8.8M12.2M16.2M18.6M28.1M35.6M40.6M57.6M
Sweden0.2M0.4M0.6M0.8M1.3M2.5M4.2M5.1M7.0M8.2M8.9M10.5M
Switzerland0.3M0.3M0.7M1.0M1.2M2.0M2.7M3.3M4.7M6.4M7.3M8.8M
United Kingdom0.8M2.0M3.9M6.2M8.6M21.2M31.4M41.2M50.1M56.2M59.2M68.1M
Western Offshoots------------
Australia0.4M0.4M0.5M0.5M0.5M0.3M1.8M3.7M8.3M13.8M18.9M25.8M
Canada0.1M0.2M0.3M0.3M0.2M0.8M3.8M5.5M14.0M23.2M30.8M38.7M
United States0.7M1.3M2.0M1.5M1.0M10.0M40.2M76.3M152.3M216.0M282.2M333.3M