2016 United States Senate election in Florida


The 2016 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 8, 2016 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Florida, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, elections, 2016|other elections] to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primary elections for both the Republicans and Democrats took place on August 30, 2016.
Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio ran for another term, but faced well-funded Republican primary opposition after initially announcing he would not seek re-election to his Senate seat. He had openly considered whether to seek re-election or run for president in 2016. He stated in April 2014 that he would not run for both the Senate and president in 2016, as Florida law prohibits a candidate from simultaneously appearing twice on a ballot, but did not rule out running for either office.
However, in April 2015, Rubio announced that he was running for president and would not seek re-election. He had initially said he would not run for re-election to the Senate even if he dropped out of the GOP presidential primary before he would have to qualify for the 2016 Senate primary ballot, for which the filing deadline was June 24, 2016.
On June 13, 2016, despite his previous statements that he would not run for re-election to his Senate seat, Rubio "seemed to open the door to running for re-election," citing the previous day's mass shooting in Orlando and how "it really gives you pause, to think a little bit about your service to your country and where you can be most useful to your country." On June 22, 2016, Rubio announced that he would seek re-election to the Senate, reversing his pledge not to run.
On August 30, the Republican Party nominated Marco Rubio, and the Democratic Party nominated Representative Patrick Murphy. Rubio won with the largest raw vote total in Florida history, taking a greater percentage of the popular vote than Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who won the state in the election. He is the first Republican Senator from Florida since 1994, and only the second with Mack III|Connie Mack], to be reelected to a second term. Also, Mel Martinez's victory in 2004 marks the first time that Republicans had won one of Florida's Senate seats three times in a row.
Marco Rubio won 48% of the Hispanic vote and 17% of the African American vote during this election, at the time considered an exceptional number for a Republican during a presidential year. Additionally, Rubio's raw vote total was the highest vote total for any Republican Senate candidate up until Texas Senator John Cornyn broke it in 2020.
Rubio would later win by a larger 16.4% margin in 2022, including winning a majority of Hispanic voters in Florida.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size
error		Vern
Buchanan		Ben
Carson		Ron
DeSantis		Don
Gaetz		David
Jolly		George
LeMieux		Carlos
Bill
McCollum		Jeff
Miller		Tom
Rooney		Todd
Wilcox		Other/
Undecided
News 13/Bay News 9March 4–6, 2016724± 3.7%–56%–––––––––44%
Mason-DixonJuly 20–24, 2015500± 4.5%––8%–11%–7%22%6%–1%45%
Mason-DixonJuly 20–24, 2015500± 4.5%––9%–16%–10%–8%–2%55%
St. Pete Polls1,074± 3.0%–—9%—22%—11%—12%—–46%
Gravis Marketing729± 3.6%–—16%———7%25%6%—–46%
St. Leo University425± 4.5%–—6%4%6%3%7%16%8%—–43%
Mason-Dixon425± 4.8%7%–4%1%8%3%4%20%—5%–48%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Lateresa Jones, life coach and independent candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014

Declined

Libertarian primary

On October 1, 2015, Adrian Wyllie and Lynn House, chair and vice chair, respectively, of the Libertarian Party of Florida, resigned their seats in protest after the executive committee refused to oust candidate Augustus Invictus from the party. According to Wyllie, Invictus had defended eugenics, called for a new civil war, and brutally slaughtered a goat, and is not representative of the Libertarian Party. Invictus has refuted these claims, calling Wyllie's accusations "deliberate misrepresentation."

Candidates

Declared

Declined

  • Roger Stone, political consultant, lobbyist and strategist

Independent

Candidates

Declared

  • Basil Dalack, attorney and former Tequesta village councilman
  • Lateresa Jones, life coach and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014
  • Anton "Tony" Khoury, businessman
  • Steven Machat, music producer
  • Bruce Nathan, physical therapist

No party affiliation

Candidates

Declared
  • Bruce Nathan, physical therapist

General election

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Marco
Rubio 		Patrick
Murphy 		Paul
Stanton 		OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkeyNovember 1–7, 20164,092± 4.6%48%49%——3%
Quinnipiac UniversityNovember 3–6, 2016884± 3.3%50%43%—2%5%
Alliance/ESA PollNovember 2–6, 2016875± 4.2%51%40%——9%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 31–November 6, 20163,574± 4.6%48%49%——3%
CBS News/YouGovNovember 2–4, 20161,188± 3.6%47%44%—3%6%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 28–November 3, 20163,356± 4.6%49%49%——2%
Breitbart/Gravis MarketingNovember 1–2, 20161,220± 2.8%47%46%——7%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion SavvyNovember 1–2, 2016603± 4.0%50%46%——4%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 27–November 2, 20162,901± 4.6%49%48%——3%
CNN/ORCOctober 27–November 1, 2016773 LV± 3.5%49%48%——2%
CNN/ORCOctober 27–November 1, 2016884 RV± 3.5%50%47%——3%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 27–November 1, 2016626± 3.9%50%44%—1%4%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 26–November 1, 20162,715± 4.6%49%47%——4%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 25–31, 20162,809± 4.6%49%47%——4%
TargetSmart/William & MaryOctober 25–28, 2016718± 3.4%49%43%—7%1%
Emerson CollegeOctober 26–27, 2016500± 4.3%49%47%—3%1%
New York Times Upshot/Siena CollegeOctober 25–27, 2016814± 3.4%51%42%——5%
Breitbart/Gravis MarketingOctober 25–26, 20161,301± 2.7%46%46%——8%
Public Policy PollingOctober 25–26, 2016742± 3.6%46%46%——8%
NBC/WSJ/MaristOctober 25–26, 2016779 LV± 3.5%51%43%—4%2%
NBC/WSJ/MaristOctober 25–26, 2016990 RV± 3.1%50%42%—4%3%
St. Leo UniversityOctober 22–26, 20161,028± 3.0%44%39%——17%
University of North FloridaOctober 20–25, 2016836± 3.6%49%43%——8%
Bloomberg/SelzerOctober 21–24, 2016953± 3.2%51%41%——8%
Florida Atlantic UniversityOctober 21–23, 2016500± 4.3%46%42%——12%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSAOctober 20–24, 20161,251± 2.8%45%41%—6%8%
CBS News/YouGovOctober 20–21, 20161,042± 3.6%44%42%—6%8%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion SavvyOctober 20, 2016538± 4.2%46%46%——8%
Google Consumer SurveysOctober 18–20, 2016500± 4.2%57%38%——5%
Associated Industries of FloridaOctober 19, 20161,000± 3.1%43%38%—8%11%
Florida Chamber of CommerceOctober 16–19, 2016507± 4.4%51%37%—1%11%
The Times-Picayune/LucidOctober 17–18, 2016892± 3.0%45%44%——11%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 10–16, 2016660± 3.8%49%47%——4%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkeyOctober 8–16, 20161,702± 0.5%51%45%——4%
Public Policy PollingOctober 12–13, 2016985± 3.1%44%38%6%—12%
Public Policy PollingOctober 12–13, 2016985± 3.1%48%43%——9%
Breitbart/Gravis MarketingOctober 11–13, 20161,799± 2.3%44%36%——20%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion SavvyOctober 10–11, 2016533± 4.2%48%44%——8%
NBC/WSJ/MaristOctober 3–5, 2016700± 3.7%48%46%—2%4%
Associated Industries of FloridaOctober 2–5, 2016600± 4.0%49%41%—1%9%
Breitbart/Gravis MarketingOctober 4, 2016821± 3.4%44%40%——16%
Emerson CollegeOctober 2–4, 2016600± 3.6%47%39%—6%8%
University of North FloridaSeptember 27–October 4, 2016667± 3.8%48%41%—1%10%
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 27–October 2, 2016545± 4.2%48%44%——8%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion SavvySeptember 28–29, 2016619± 4.0%47%43%——10%
Mason-DixonSeptember 27–29, 2016820± 3.5%47%40%5%2%6%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 27–28, 2016826± 3.4%42%35%9%—15%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 27–28, 2016826± 3.4%47%44%——9%
Suffolk UniversitySeptember 19–21, 2016500± 4.4%43%34%2%4%17%
Florida Chamber of CommerceSeptember 15–20, 2016617± 4.0%46%42%——11%
Monmouth UniversitySeptember 16–19, 2016400± 4.9%47%45%—3%5%
Saint Leo UniversitySeptember 10–16, 2016502± 4.5%44%35%——21%
New York Times Upshot/Siena CollegeSeptember 10–14, 2016867± 3.3%48%42%——8%
CNN/ORCSeptember 7–12, 2016788 LV± 3.0%54%43%—1%2%
CNN/ORCSeptember 7–12, 2016886 RV± 3.0%51%45%—1%4%
Global Strategy GroupSeptember 6–11, 2016800± 3.5%47%45%——8%
JMC Analytics (R)September 7–8, 2016781± 3.5%43%38%—4%15%
Quinnipiac UniversityAugust 31–September 7, 2016601± 4.0%50%43%—1%6%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 4–6, 2016744± 3.6%40%37%10%—13%
Mason-DixonAugust 22–24, 2016625± 4.0%46%43%——11%
iCitizenAugust 18–24, 2016600± 4.0%43%42%——16%
Florida Atlantic UniversityAugust 19–22, 20161,200± 2.7%44%39%——17%
St. Leo UniversityAugust 14–18, 20161,380± 3.0%46%38%——16%
Monmouth UniversityAugust 12–15, 2016402± 4.9%48%43%—3%5%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion SavvyAugust 10, 2016622± 4.0%45%43%——12%
Civis AnalyticsAugust 9–15, 20161,436± 2.8%44%45%——9%
NBC/WSJ/MaristAugust 4–10, 2016862± 3.3%49%43%—3%5%
Public Policy PollingAugust 5–7, 2016938± 3.2%42%40%——18%
Quinnipiac UniversityJuly 30–August 7, 20161,056± 3.0%48%45%——7%
Suffolk UniversityAugust 1–3, 2016500± 4.4%46%33%——21%
JMC Analytics (R)July 9–10, 2016700± 3.7%40%33%—5%21%
NBC/WSJ/MaristJuly 5–11, 2016871± 3.3%47%44%—2%7%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 30–July 11, 20161,015± 3.1%50%37%—1%8%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSAJune 25–27, 20161,678± 2.4%43%43%—7%8%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%47%40%——13%
Public Policy PollingJune 15–16, 2016508± 4.4%41%42%——17%
Public Policy PollingJune 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%43%44%——13%
Associated Industries of FloridaApril 25–27, 2016604± 5.0%49%41%——10%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%46%40%——14%
Public Policy PollingMarch 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%48%41%——11%
Mason-DixonMarch 3–5, 2015800± 3.5%50%38%——12%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 4–7, 2014818± 3.4%46%41%——12%

with Ron DeSantis

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ron
DeSantis 		Alan
Grayson 		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%33%41%1%24%
Quinnipiac UniversityApril 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%38%36%—26%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%34%40%—26%
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 25-October 5, 20151,173± 2.9%31%37%1%26%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%37%36%—28%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 4–15, 20151,147± 2.9%32%38%1%29%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ron
DeSantis 		Patrick
Murphy 		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%32%42%1%25%
Quinnipiac UniversityApril 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%35%36%—29%
Associated Industries of FloridaApril 25–27, 2016604± 5%28%40%—32%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%31%43%—26%
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 25-October 5, 20151,173± 2.9%30%37%1%29%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%35%40%—25%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 4–15, 20151,147± 2.9%31%39%1%29%
St. Leo UniversityMay 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%14%33%—53%

with David Jolly

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		David
Jolly 		Alan
Grayson 		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%34%41%1%24%
Public Policy PollingJune 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%33%40%—27%
Quinnipiac UniversityApril 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%37%35%—28%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%38%35%—26%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%39%36%—26%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		David
Jolly 		Patrick
Murphy 		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%34%41%1%25%
Public Policy PollingJune 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%29%44%—27%
Quinnipiac UniversityApril 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%34%37%—29%
Associated Industries of FloridaApril 25–27, 2016604± 5%33%40%—27%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%34%38%—27%
Democracy CorpsOctober 24–28, 2015400± 4.9%44%43%—13%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%35%40%—25%
St. Leo UniversityMay 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%14%35%—52%

with Carlos Lopez-Cantera

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Carlos
López-Cantera 		Alan
Grayson 		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%35%40%1%24%
Quinnipiac UniversityApril 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%37%37%—26%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%35%38%—26%
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 25-October 5, 20151,173± 2.9%32%35%1%27%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%34%41%—24%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 4–15, 20151,147± 2.9%31%37%1%31%
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 17–28, 20151,087± 3%33%32%1%34%
Public Policy PollingMarch 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%36%40%—24%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Carlos
López-Cantera 		Patrick
Murphy 		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%32%41%1%26%
Quinnipiac UniversityApril 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%34%38%—28%
Associated Industries of FloridaApril 25–27, 2016604± 5%31%42%—27%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%31%40%—29%
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 25-October 5, 20151,173± 2.9%29%37%1%30%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%35%41%—24%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 4–15, 20151,147± 2.9%28%40%1%32%
St. Leo UniversityMay 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%15%30%—56%
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 17–28, 20151,087± 3%31%35%1%33%
Public Policy PollingMarch 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%34%41%—25%

with Jeff Atwater

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Atwater 		Alan
Grayson 		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 17–28, 20151,087± 3%42%32%1%25%
Public Policy PollingMarch 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%41%40%—19%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Atwater 		Patrick
Murphy 		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 17–28, 20151,087± 3%38%34%1%27%
Public Policy PollingMarch 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%41%39%—20%
Mason-DixonMarch 3–5, 2015800± 3.5%46%32%—22%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Atwater 		Debbie
Wasserman
Schultz 		Undecided
Mason-DixonMarch 3–5, 2015800± 3.5%45%35%20%

with Pam Bondi

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Pam
Bondi 		Alan
Grayson 		Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%45%42%13%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Pam
Bondi 		Patrick
Murphy 		Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%45%41%14%

with Don Gaetz

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Don
Gaetz 		Patrick
Murphy 		Undecided
St. Leo UniversityMay 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%9%36%55%

with Jeff Miller

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Miller 		Patrick
Murphy 		Undecided
St. Leo UniversityMay 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%15%34%52%

with Marco Rubio

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Marco
Rubio 		Alex
Sink 		Undecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%45%42%13%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Marco
Rubio 		Debbie
Wasserman
Schultz 		Undecided
Mason-DixonMarch 3–5, 2015800± 3.5%53%36%11%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 4–7, 2014818± 3.4%47%43%9%
Public Policy PollingJune 6–9, 2014672± 3.8%48%40%12%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%46%43%11%

with Allen West

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Allen
West 		Alan
Grayson 		Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%39%42%19%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Allen
West 		Patrick
Murphy 		Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%39%41%20%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Allen
West 		Alex
Sink 		Undecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%38%44%18%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Allen
West 		Debbie
Wasserman
Schultz 		Undecided
Public Policy PollingJune 6–9, 2014672± 3.8%41%40%19%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%40%44%16%

with Todd Wilcox

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Todd
Wilcox 		Alan
Grayson 		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%34%39%2%24%
Quinnipiac UniversityApril 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%37%35%—28%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Todd
Wilcox 		Patrick
Murphy 		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%31%41%1%26%
Quinnipiac UniversityApril 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%33%38%—27%

with Carlos Beruff

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Carlos
Beruff 		Alan
Grayson 		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac UniversityJuly 30–August 7, 20161,056± 3.0%39%43%1%17%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 30–July 11, 20161,015± 3.1%38%38%1%19%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%33%40%1%25%
Public Policy PollingJune 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%32%41%—28%
Quinnipiac UniversityApril 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%35%36%—29%

with Alan Grayson

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Marco
Rubio 		Alan
Grayson 		OtherUndecided
iCitizenAugust 18–24, 2016600± 4.0%44%39%—16%
St. Leo UniversityAugust 14–18, 20161,380± 3.0%47%34%—19%
Monmouth UniversityAugust 12–15, 2016402± 4.9%50%39%5%6%
Quinnipiac UniversityJuly 30–August 7, 20161,056± 3.0%49%43%1%8%
Suffolk UniversityAugust 1–3, 2016500± 4.4%45%31%—24%
JMC Analytics (R)July 9–10, 2016700± 3.7%41%33%4%22%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 30–July 11, 20161,015± 3.1%50%38%1%8%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%50%38%1%11%
Public Policy PollingJune 15–16, 2016508± 4.4%42%40%—17%
Public Policy PollingJune 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%43%38%—19%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%48%38%—14%
Public Policy PollingMarch 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%49%40%—11%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

Counties that from Independent to Republican

By congressional district

Rubio won 16 of 27 congressional districts, with the remaining 11 going to Murphy. Each candidate won a congressional district that elected a representative of the other party.
DistrictRubioMurphyRepresentative
70%25%Jeff Miller
70%25%Matt Gaetz
66%30%Gwen Graham
66%30%Neal Dunn
59%37%Ted Yoho
68%28%Ander Crenshaw
68%28%John Rutherford
41%56%Corrine Brown
41%56%Al Lawson
57%39%Ron DeSantis
49%46%John Mica
49%46%Stephanie Murphy
59%36%Bill Posey
46%50%Alan Grayson
46%50%Darren Soto
40%56%Daniel Webster
40%56%Val Demings
62%33%Rich Nugent
62%33%Daniel Webster
56%38%Gus Bilirakis
47%48%David Jolly
47%48%Charlie Crist
44%52%Kathy Castor
54%41%Dennis Ross
55%40%Vern Buchanan
62%33%Tom Rooney
52%45%Patrick Murphy
52%45%Brian Mast
65%31%Curt Clawson
65%31%Francis Rooney
21%77%Alcee Hastings
42%55%Lois Frankel
43%55%Ted Deutch
40%58%Debbie Wasserman Schultz
20%78%Frederica Wilson
60%38%Mario Díaz-Balart
49%48%Carlos Curbelo
48.5%49.3%Ileana Ros-Lehtinen