2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin


The 2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Wisconsin. The party primaries were held on August 9, 2022. Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson won election to a third term, defeating Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes by 26,718 votes—a one-point margin of victory. In this election, Johnson won 5 counties he lost in 2016.
In 2016, Johnson had pledged to serve only two terms in the Senate. He reversed this decision in 2022. The race was one of the most competitive of the cycle, and it followed considerable Democratic success in recent statewide elections. In 2018, Democrats won every statewide contest on the ballot, including the election for the state's 2018 [United States Senate election in Wisconsin|other Senate seat]. This was one of the two Republican-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Joe Biden won in the 2020 [United States presidential election|2020 presidential election].
Barnes led in most polls during the summer of 2022. In the final weeks prior to the election, Johnson took a lead of more than three points in the polling average. Though Johnson ultimately prevailed, this election was the closest of his three Senate victories. This was the first Senate election in Wisconsin since 1998 in which the winning candidate was of a different party than the winner of the concurrent gubernatorial election.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

  • Brad Beyer, U.S. Army veteran
  • Keith Neubert, paramedic

Withdrawn

Declined

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Did not file

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Graphical summary

General election

Polling

Aggregate polls

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ron
Johnson
Mandela
Barnes
OtherUndecided
CiviqsNovember 4–7, 2022739 ± 3.7%50%49%1%
Research Co.November 4–6, 2022450 ± 4.6%51%45%4%
Data for Progress November 2–5, 20221,504 ± 2.0%53%47%
The Trafalgar Group November 2–4, 20221,095 ± 2.9%50%47%3%
Marquette UniversityOctober 24 – November 1, 2022802 ± 4.6%48%45%5%1%
Marquette UniversityOctober 24 – November 1, 2022679 ± 4.8%50%48%1%1%
Clarity Campaign Labs October 27–31, 2022888 ± 3.3%46%48%6%
Siena CollegeOctober 27–31, 2022655 ± 4.8%47%45%2%6%
Fox NewsOctober 26–30, 20221,000 ± 3.0%48%45%3%5%
Wick InsightsOctober 26–30, 20221,089 ± 3.2%50%46%2%2%
Emerson CollegeOctober 27–29, 20221,000 ± 3.0%50%46%2%3%
Emerson CollegeOctober 27–29, 20221,000 ± 3.0%51%46%3%
Patriot PollingOctober 20–23, 2022801 52%43%5%
Data for Progress October 14–22, 20221,376 ± 3.0%51%46%2%
CNN/SSRSOctober 13–17, 2022905 ± 4.2%45%48%5%1%
CNN/SSRSOctober 13–17, 2022714 ± 4.5%50%49%1%
Clarity Campaign Labs October 7–11, 2022874 ± 3.3%47%48%5%
Marquette UniversityOctober 3–9, 2022801 ± 4.3%47%47%5%2%
Marquette UniversityOctober 3–9, 2022652 ± 4.8%52%46%2%1%
YouGov/CBS NewsOctober 3–7, 20221,138 ± 3.7%50%49%1%
Public Policy Polling September 26–27, 2022574 47%47%6%
Fox NewsSeptember 22–26, 20221,012 ± 3.0%48%44%3%5%
Fabrizio Ward /Impact Research September 18–25, 20221399 ± 4.4%51%46%5%
Data for Progress September 20–23, 2022999 ± 3.0%50%48%3%
The Trafalgar Group September 15–19, 20221087 ± 2.9%49%47%5%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 16–18, 2022860 ± 3.27%48%44%3%6%
Big Data Poll September 17–18, 2022852 ± 3.4%49%46%
Siena CollegeSeptember 14–15, 2022651 ± 4.5%47%48%2%4%
OnMessage Inc. September 11–13, 2022800 49%45%6%
CiviqsSeptember 10–13, 2022780 ± 3.7%49%48%1%2%
Marquette UniversitySeptember 6–11, 2022801 ± 4.3%48%47%5%
Marquette UniversitySeptember 6–11, 2022632 ± 4.7%49%48%3%
The Trafalgar Group August 22–25, 20221,091 ± 2.9%47%49%4%
Fox NewsAugust 12–16, 20221,006 ± 3.0%46%50%1%4%
Marquette UniversityAugust 10–15, 2022811 ± 4.2%44%51%1%4%
Marquette UniversityAugust 10–15, 2022713 ± 4.5%45%52%0%3%
Marquette UniversityJune 14–20, 2022803 ± 4.3%44%46%1%8%
Clarity Campaign Labs September 8–11, 2021756 ± 3.6%43%43%14%

Ron Johnson vs. Sarah Godlewski

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ron
Johnson
Sarah
Godlewski
OtherUndecided
Marquette UniversityJune 14–20, 2022803 ± 4.3%43%45%2%10%
Clarity Campaign Labs September 8–11, 2021756 ± 3.6%44%41%15%

Ron Johnson vs. Alex Lasry

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ron
Johnson
Alex
Lasry
OtherUndecided
Marquette UniversityJune 14–20, 2022803 ± 4.3%45%42%2%11%
Clarity Campaign Labs September 8–11, 2021756 ± 3.6%45%41%14%

Ron Johnson vs. Tom Nelson

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ron
Johnson
Tom
Nelson
OtherUndecided
Marquette UniversityJune 14–20, 2022803 ± 4.3%43%44%2%11%
Change Research March 25–27, 20211,723 ± 2.6%44%48%5%

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Johnson won six of eight congressional districts.
DistrictJohnsonBarnesRepresentative
52%48%Bryan Steil
28%72%Mark Pocan
53%47%Ron Kind
53%47%Derrick Van Orden
23%77%Gwen Moore
63%37%Scott L. Fitzgerald
59%41%Glenn Grothman
61%39%Tom Tiffany
59%41%Mike Gallagher