Segal–Cover score


A Segal–Cover score is an attempt to measure the "perceived qualifications and ideology" of nominees to the United States Supreme Court. The scores are created by analyzing pre-confirmation newspaper editorials regarding the nominations from The New York Times, Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and The Wall Street Journal. Each nominee receives two scores that range from 0 to 1 based on the average score of all articles from these sources:Qualifications: 0 means unqualified and 1 means extremely qualified
  • * Qualification scores are based on the characterization of each editorial as positive, neutral, or negative toward the nominee. Positive articles are coded as 1, neutral articles as 0.5, and negative articles as 0.Ideology: 0 means most conservative, and 1 means most liberal.
  • * Ideology scores are based on each editorial's characterization of the nominee as liberal, moderate, conservative, or not applicable. Articles characterizing the nominee as liberal are coded as 1, moderate as.5, conservative as 0; articles deemed not applicable are omitted from the ideology score.
The Segal–Cover scoring was introduced by Jeffrey Segal and Albert Cover in their 1989 article "Ideological Values and the Votes of U.S. Supreme Court Justices". The scores have since been updated as part of The Supreme Court Justices Database, a project led by USC Gould School of Law Professor Lee Epstein. The updated scores cover all nominees from Hugo Black in 1937 to Amy Coney Barrett in 2022. A score for Kentanji Brown Jackson has not yet been published.
Because the scores are based on perceptions before the nominee takes a seat on the Court, they provide a measure of the ideological values of Supreme Court justices that is independent of the votes they later cast.

Scores

The Segal–Cover perceived qualifications and ideology scores for all nominees to the Court between 1937 and 2022:
Nom.
Order
NomineeChief
Justice
Senate
Vote
Ideology
Score
Qualifications
Score
Nominator Year
167 – 180.8750.160Franklin D. Roosevelt 1937
2Voice Vote0.7250.875Franklin D. Roosevelt 1938
3Voice Vote0.6650.965Franklin D. Roosevelt 1939
462 – 40.7300.820Franklin D. Roosevelt 1939
5Voice Vote1.0000.650Franklin D. Roosevelt 1940
6CJVoice Vote0.3001.000Franklin D. Roosevelt 1941
7Voice Vote0.3300.800Franklin D. Roosevelt 1941
8Voice Vote1.0000.915Franklin D. Roosevelt 1941
9Voice Vote1.0001.000Franklin D. Roosevelt 1943
10Voice Vote0.2800.930Harry S. Truman 1945
11CJVoice Vote0.7500.785Harry S. Truman 1946
1273 – 80.5000.125Harry S. Truman 1949
1348 – 160.7200.355Harry S. Truman 1949
14CJVoice Vote0.7500.855Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953
1571 – 110.8750.750Dwight D. Eisenhower 1955
16Voice Vote1.0001.000Dwight D. Eisenhower 1956
17Voice Vote0.5001.000Dwight D. Eisenhower 1957
1870 – 170.7501.000Dwight D. Eisenhower 1958
19Voice Vote0.5000.500John F. Kennedy 1962
20Voice Vote0.7500.915Lyndon B. Johnson 1965
21Voice Vote1.0001.000Lyndon B. Johnson 1965
2269 – 111.0000.835Lyndon B. Johnson 1967
23CJ45 – 43 *0.8450.635Lyndon B. Johnson 1968
24CJ74 – 30.1150.960Richard M. Nixon 1969
2545 – 550.1600.335Richard M. Nixon 1969
2645 – 510.0400.111Richard M. Nixon 1969
2794 – 00.1150.970Richard M. Nixon 1970
2889 – 10.1651.000Richard M. Nixon 1972
2968 – 260.0450.885Richard M. Nixon 1972
3098 – 00.2500.960Gerald Ford 1975
3199 – 00.4151.000Ronald Reagan 1981
32CJ65 – 330.0450.400Ronald Reagan 1986
3398 – 00.0001.000Ronald Reagan 1986
3442 – 580.0950.790Ronald Reagan 1987
35Withdrawn0.0000.320Ronald Reagan 1987
3697 – 00.3650.890Ronald Reagan 1988
3790 – 90.3250.765George H. W. Bush 1990
3852 – 480.1600.415George H. W. Bush 1991
3996 – 30.6801.000Bill Clinton 1993
4087 – 90.4750.545Bill Clinton 1994
41CJ78 – 220.1200.970George W. Bush 2005
42Withdrawn0.2700.360George W. Bush 2005
4358 – 420.1000.810George W. Bush 2006
4468 – 310.7800.810Barack Obama 2009
4563 – 370.7300.730Barack Obama 2010
46Lapsed0.7301.000Barack Obama 2016
4754 – 450.1100.930Donald Trump 2017
4850 – 480.0700.400Donald Trump 2018
49Amy Coney Barrett52 – 480.2300.820Donald Trump 2020
50Ketanji Brown Jackson53– 47??Joe Biden 2022

* The vote on Fortas for the Chief Justice position was on cloture and failed to receive the necessary two-thirds majority.
  • A highlighted row indicates that the Justice is currently serving on the Court.
  • A Senate vote in red text indicates that the nomination was blocked.
  • A question mark indicates that no Segal-Cover score is available for this Justice.

Predictive power

Segal and Cover found that their ideology score is strongly correlated with the subsequent votes of the justices in civil liberties cases, with a correlation of 0.80 and an r² of 0.64.
Segal-Cover scores require subjective assessment of subjective sources. They are not based on any observed voting behavior of judges.
In a 1995 paper revisiting the Segal-Cover score, Segal and his coauthors concluded that the ideology score was significantly more accurate for justices who served during and after the Warren Court. For earlier Court eras Segal et al. conclude that "scholars should be sensitive to changes in the legal, political, and social environments and use appropriate diagnostic tools to tease out their potential effects." They caution that researchers analyzing the ideology of earlier justices should supplement the ideology scores of earlier judges with "other potential determinants of the vote, or redefine their ideological variables to reflect as precisely as possible the issues that their Court addressed."