October 2024 Iranian strikes on Israel
On 1 October 2024, Iran launched about 200 ballistic missiles at targets in Israel, in at least two waves, then the largest attack during the ongoing Iran–Israel conflict. Iran's codename for the attack was Operation True Promise II. It was the second direct attack by Iran against Israel, the first being the April 2024 strikes.
Iran claimed that the attack was an act of "self-defense" in retaliation for Israel's assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and IRGC general Abbas Nilforoushan. The attacks, while more successful at saturating Israeli air defenses than in April, did not appear to cause extensive damage. Israel said it had shot down most of the missiles and there had been no harm to its Air Force's capabilities. The US Navy and Jordan also reported intercepting missiles. The two fatalities caused by the attacks were a Palestinian man killed by debris from an intercepted missile and an Israeli man who died due to a heart attack. Four Palestinians, two Israelis and two Jordanians sustained minor injuries.
The area of the Nevatim Airbase in the Negev was hit by 20 to 32 missiles, which damaged a hangar and taxiway. Several other missiles hit the Tel Nof Airbase, a school in the nearby town of Gedera, and an area north of Tel Aviv around the headquarters of the Israeli intelligence services Mossad and Unit 8200, damaging homes and a restaurant. Israeli media were barred from publishing the exact locations of impacts. Analysts suggested that Israel had deprioritized protecting Nevatim since "the cost of repairing a damaged hangar or runway is far lower than the cost of using an Arrow interceptor." Iran used the Fattah-1 and Kheibar Shekan.
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it a "big mistake" and vowed that Iran "will pay" for it. The US promised "severe consequences" and pledged to work with Israel to ensure Iran faces repercussions for its actions. Iran claimed the targets it attacked were those involved in the Gaza war.
Israel retaliated the same month, striking air-defense and missile production facilities. Ultimately, the subsequent events and the high tensions between the two countries would escalate to become the Iran–Israel war in June 2025.
Background
On October 7, the Gaza war broke out. Hamas-lead militant groups killed 1,139 Israelis, while Israel during the first year killed 41,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children. On October 8, Hezbollah joined the conflict in solidarity with the Palestinians, promising to stop attacking Israel, if Israel stops attacking Gaza. During the war Iran has repeatedly accused Israel of carrying out genocide in Gaza, and threatened Israel with "far-reaching consequences if it didn't stop its war crimes.Previous attacks inside Iran and Israel
On 1 April, Israel aircraft attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing two Iranian generals, seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers, and a Syrian woman and her child. Iran retaliated on 13 April by launching attacks against Israel with loitering munitions, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. The attacks were launched by the IRGC, in collaboration with several Iranian-backed Islamist militas. The strike sent around 170 drones, over 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles toward Israel and the Golan Heights.Israel said that the coalition whose defensive efforts were codenamed Iron Shield, destroyed 99 percent of the incoming weapons, most before they reached Israeli airspace. American, British, French, and Jordanian air forces also shot some down. The missiles caused minor damage to the Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel, which remained operational. In Israel, a child was injured by part of a missile, and 31 other people either suffered minor injuries while rushing to shelters or were treated for anxiety. The attack was the largest attempted drone strike in history, Iran's attacks drew criticism from the United Nations, several world leaders, and political analysts, who warned that they risk escalating into a full-blown regional war.
Israel retaliated by executing limited strikes on Iran on 18 April 2024. The Israeli strike reportedly destroyed an air defense radar site guarding the Natanz nuclear facility, aiming to communicate Israel's capabilities to strike Iran without escalating tensions further.
On 31 July 2024, Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was assassinated in the Iranian capital Tehran by an apparent Israeli attack. Nasser Kanaani, the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, condemned this assassination and said that Haniyeh's "blood will never be wasted".
Prior escalation in the Middle East
In September 2024, a major escalation took place in the Hezbollah–Israel conflict that started after the Iranian-backed group initiated attacks against Israel on 8 October 2023, a day after Hamas's 7 October attack on Israel. During this month, Hezbollah suffered major setbacks that degraded its capabilities and killed many of its leadership, including the 17 and 18 September explosions of its handheld communication devices and the 20 September assassination of Ibrahim Aqil, commander of the elite Redwan Force. Airstrikes by the Israeli Air Force also targeted Hezbollah's military bases, command centers, airstrips, and weapons caches across southern Lebanon. These setbacks culminated in the 27 September assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and other senior commanders, including Ali Karaki, commander of Hezbollah in south Lebanon, in an airstrike that destroyed their underground headquarters in Beirut's Dahieh suburbs. On 27 September 2024, Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut. On 29 September, the New York Times reported that Iranian officials debated how to respond to Nasrallah's death.These events substantially weakened Iranian allies, and damaged Iran's overall deterrence capabilities. Hamas, having seen its command structure devastated, has been driven into guerrilla warfare. The Houthi movement have been cut off from supply routes, while Hezbollah has suffered considerable losses, including most of its senior leadership, numerous mid-level commanders, and a large portion of its Iranian-supplied missile arsenal. These developments have significantly reduced the threat posed by Iran and its proxies to Israel, while also damaging Iran's overall deterrence capability.
Several days later, on 1 October 2024, Israel launched a ground operation into southern Lebanon, which, according to the IDF, aimed at dismantling Hezbollah's forces and infrastructure that posed a threat to civilian communities in northern Israel. The killing of Nasrallah delivered a significant setback to the Iranian-led "Axis of Resistance", a network of proxy Islamist militias that Iran has long employed to target both Israel and Western interests in the Middle East.
Strikes
A few hours before the strikes, Iran reportedly alerted Arab countries about the attacks, though this warning was significantly shorter than the 72 hour warning Iran gave in April. The United States warned about a possible Iranian attack in the hours prior to the attack but said it had no direct warning from Iran regarding the attacks. A U.S. official told Reuters, "A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran". Anonymous Pentagon officials stated that the U.S. troops that were stationed in the Middle East weren't attacked during the event.According to the IDF, around 200 missiles were fired by Iran in at least two waves, using hypersonic missiles such as the Fattah weapons system. Ballistic missiles are notably harder to intercept than the cruise missiles and drones that comprised a significant portion of the Iranian assault on Israel in April 2024. Iranian launch sites included Tabriz, Kashan, and the outskirts of Tehran. According to a senior Iranian official, the order to launch missiles at Israel came from the Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who stayed in a secure location. Iran's claim of responsibility for the attack was broadcast on state television. Within the statement was a warning that it was only a "first wave", without further elaboration. A senior U.S. official stated that many missiles either failed to launch or did not reach Israeli airspace.
One Israeli civilian died as a result of a heart attack caused by stress and anxiety triggered by the attacks and two Israeli civilians were reported to be injured lightly by the strikes. Several Palestinians in Jericho were injured by rocket fragments. A 37-year-old Palestinian man identified as Sameh al-Asali, a laborer originally from Gaza, was killed in Jericho by a shrapnel from an intercepted missile in an incident captured on CCTV.
Footage showed a mix of missile interceptions and impacts. The IDF said that the Israeli Air Force's operational capability remained intact during the attack, with its planes, air defenses, and air traffic control functioning normally. Missiles, or missile debris, were reported to have fallen in Tel Aviv, Dimona, Hora, Hod HaSharon, Beersheba, and Rishon LeZion. Fragments were also found in the Palestinian village of Sanur, near Jenin. KAN News and Hevrat HaHadashot reported that a blast caused damage to around 100 homes in Hod HaSharon, in central Israel. A missile struck an open area in northern Tel Aviv, damaging a restaurant, while another caused significant destruction at the Chabad School in Gedera, leaving a large crater.
Videos geolocated by CNN showed a significant number of Iranian rockets hitting the Nevatim Airbase. Iranian media claimed that several of Israel's most advanced aircraft had been destroyed, but provided no evidence to support this assertion. Tel Nof Airbase, which is thought to store Israel's nuclear bombs, appeared to have been struck by several ballistic missiles, with at least one impact resulting in secondary explosions, most likely from stored munitions. The headquarters of the Mossad near Tel Aviv were targeted, but escaped damage, with the closest ballistic missile apparently landing approximately 500 meters away and no other impacts reported. In some cases, the IDF censor barred Israeli media from publishing the exact locations of missile impacts and the extent of the damage. A Washington Post video analysis showed that at least two dozen Iranian missiles broke through air defenses and struck or landed near three intelligence and military targets, including 20 direct hits to the Nevatim airbase and three striking the Tel Nof airbase. A later report gave an expert estimation that 32 missiles had struck the Nevatim base, some close to hangars where F-35s were parked, with no apparent major damage to the base. Satellite images from Planet Labs analyzed by Decker Eveleth showed at least one destroyed building and one damaged concrete hangar in addition to several craters. Eveleth assessed the accuracy of the Nevatim strike to reflect an average 800-900m CEP for the missiles used. In addition, two missiles hit near the Mossad's headquarters near Tel Aviv. Accordingly, the Post suggested that this Iranian attack was more successful than the previous one in April. Satellite images taken after the attack showed four apparent impacts of Iranian missiles at the Nevatim base. One caused a large hole in the roof of a hangar complex near the southern runway. Another missile appeared to have struck a road on the base. The IDF said Iranian missiles damaged "office buildings and other maintenance areas" at its air bases but that no soldiers, weapons or aircraft were hit.
Iran claimed that some missiles they launched hit Israeli positions in the Netzarim Corridor in the Gaza Strip, where there was ongoing fighting between Hamas-led Palestinian forces and the IDF.
The IDF reported intercepting "a large number" of missiles, while Pentagon spokesperson Patrick S. Ryder confirmed that two United States Navy destroyers launched about a dozen interceptors against Iranian missiles. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan mentioned that other U.S. "partners" also helped thwart the attack, but did not specify who they were. Jordan stated that its air defenses intercepted missiles and drones over Jordanian airspace during the incident.