2022 United States Senate election in Colorado


The 2022 United States Senate election in Colorado was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet won reelection to a third term, defeating the Republican candidate, businessman Joe O'Dea. Originally appointed to the seat in 2009, Bennet won full terms in 2010 and 2016.
Bennet won by nearly 15 points, significantly outperforming his polling. His margin was the highest for a Democrat in a Senate election in Colorado since 1974. This was the first time in Bennet's Senate career that he received a majority of the vote.
The election resulted in both the best performance by a Democrat, and the worst performance by a Republican in the Class 3 seat since 1974.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Bennet was appointed to the U.S. Senate in January 2009 by Governor Bill Ritter following the resignation of the incumbent Senator, Ken Salazar, who become the Secretary of the Interior under President Barack Obama. Bennet was then narrowly elected in 2010 for his first full term, defeating Representative Ken Buck with 48.08% of the vote. In the 2016 election, he was re-elected to a second term with 49.97% of the vote, defeating Republican El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn.
Due to some of his centrist positions, such as his opposition to Medicare for All and his support for fracking, Bennet faced a potential challenge from the left, particularly from Joe Salazar, a former state representative. Salazar ultimately opted to run for the Colorado State Senate, and thus Bennet was easily renominated at the Democratic convention.

Nominee

  • Michael Bennet, incumbent U.S. Senator

    Eliminated at convention

  • Karen Breslin, lawyer and university instructor

    Declined

  • Joe Salazar, former state representative and candidate for Colorado Attorney General in 2018 ''''

    Endorsements

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Initially, a wide field of candidates declared their intention to seek the Republican nomination. However, instead of gathering the required number of signatures to be placed on the primary ballot, Bremer and most of the other candidates sought to earn the nomination by winning the required 30% of the delegate vote at the Colorado GOP convention in April 2022. As a result of the crowded field of candidates, delegate support was divided, with only State Representative Ron Hanks crossing the 30% threshold. Debora Flora, a radio show host, missed the ballot by a single percentage point, receiving 29% of the vote.
With the other candidates eliminated, State Representative Ron Hanks and construction CEO Joe O'Dea were the only two candidates on the primary ballot. The contrast between the two Republicans was stark. Hanks supported a complete ban on abortion and echoed former president Donald Trump's assertions of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, while the more moderate O'Dea expressed support for LGBTQ rights, some abortion rights, and rejected Trump's claims of widespread voter fraud.
Though O'Dea was initially considered the frontrunner as a result of his fundraising advantage, Hanks was buoyed by an attempt by Democrats to influence the primary. Democratic Colorado, an entity formed in June 2022, received roughly $4 million from the Senate Majority Fund, a PAC associated with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. They ran ads characterizing Hanks as "too conservative", in order to elevate Hanks over O'Dea, who was perceived as a stronger general election candidate. This attempt to interfere in the GOP primary was denounced by numerous former Colorado Democratic officials, including former governor Roy Romer, and former senators Mark Udall, Tim Wirth, and Gary Hart, who previously mounted unsuccessful attempts to win the Democratic nomination for president in 1984 and 1988.
Despite the support from Democrats and his lobbying for the endorsement of Donald Trump, Hanks was defeated by O'Dea by a 9% margin. He performed best in rural parts of the state, while O'Dea was successful in urban areas, such as Denver.

Nominee

Polling

Results

General election

In recent years, Colorado has started voting more Democratic in the federal level, transitioning from a purple state to a moderately blue state, and the shift was largely contributed to the left-wing shift in the growing Denver metropolitan area, with President Joe Biden winning the state by 13.5% in the 2020 election, almost nine points to the left of the national result of around 4.9%. Prevailing in 2010, a year where Colorado was considered a swing state and Democrats performed very poorly, Bennet had a generally strong electoral history. He also outperformed Hillary Clinton on the same ballot in 2016. Ahead of 2022, Bennet was generally favored to win, though polling showed him as potentially vulnerable, largely due to the state of the economy and President Biden's low approval ratings. Colorado had not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Cory Gardner in 2014, another very strong year for Republicans nationwide and while Colorado was still considered a swing state, even then Gardner only won narrowly. Bennet ultimately won reelection by a comfortable 14.6 point margin, outperforming Biden's victory two years prior and his own polling averages. Bennet also flipped three counties he had lost in his 2016 re-election bid, flipping Grand County by a narrow 1.1% and Chaffee County, and Garfield County by wide margins. However, O'Dea did narrowly flip Conejos County by a slim 1%.

Predictions

Endorsements

Polling

Aggregate polls

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Michael
Bennet
Joe
O'Dea
Brian
Peotter
OtherUndecided
co/efficient November 3–7, 2022856 ± 3.3%51%43%3%3%
Data for Progress November 2–5, 20221,983 ± 2.0%51%44%2%2%
The Trafalgar Group October 30 – November 1, 20221,084 ± 2.9%48%46%2%1%3%
Emerson CollegeOctober 26–29, 20221,000 ± 3.0%49%42%2%3%5%
Emerson CollegeOctober 26–29, 20221,000 ± 3.0%51%43%2%3%
co/efficient October 24–25, 2022826 ± 3.4%50%34%6%10%
CU Boulder/YouGovOctober 11–19, 2022709 ± 4.4%56%42%2%
CiviqsOctober 15–18, 2022600 ± 5.0%54%41%2%3%
Global Strategy Group October 6–11, 2022800 ± 3.5%49%38%7%7%
Global Strategy Group October 6–11, 2022800 ± 3.5%52%42%6%
Marist CollegeOctober 3–6, 20221,127 ± 4.7%48%41%2%9%
Marist CollegeOctober 3–6, 2022983 ± 5.0%49%43%2%7%
Data for Progress October 3–6, 20221,005 ± 3.0%50%41%3%1%5%
OnMessage Inc. September 20–27, 2022600 ± 4.0%46%45%4%5%
Keating Research/Magellan StrategiesSeptember 18–26, 20221,060 ± 3.0%46%36%18%
The Trafalgar Group September 20–24, 20221,078 ± 2.9%49%43%4%<1%5%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 18–19, 20221,000 ± 3.0%46%36%4%14%
Public Policy Polling August 30–31, 2022782 ± 3.5%46%35%7%12%
The Tarrance Group August 22–25, 2022600 ± 4.1%48%47%5%
The Trafalgar Group August 15–19, 20221,087 ± 2.9%47%42%5%1%5%
McLaughlin & Associates July 24–26, 2022500 ± 4.4%48%40%12%
Global Strategy Group June 2–8, 2022400 ± 4.9%49%36%14%

Michael Bennet vs. Ron Hanks

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Michael
Bennet
Ron
Hanks
Undecided
Global Strategy Group June 2–8, 2022400 ± 4.9%50%37%13%
Global Strategy Group October 19–24, 2021400 ± 4.9%52%34%13%

Michael Bennet vs. Eli Bremer

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Michael
Bennet
Eli
Bremer
Undecided
Global Strategy Group October 19–24, 2021400 ± 4.9%48%35%17%
co/efficient September 9–12, 2021742 ± 3.6%40%32%22%

Michael Bennet vs. Gino Campana

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Michael
Bennet
Gino
Campana
Undecided
Blueprint Polling April 6–8, 2022612 ± 4.0%46%40%14%

Michael Bennet vs. Lauren Boebert

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Michael
Bennet
Lauren
Boebert
Undecided
Global Strategy Group June 17–23, 2021800 ± 3.5%51%38%11%

Michael Bennet vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Michael
Bennet
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Global Strategy Group June 2–8, 2022800 ± 3.4%49%37%14%
Cygnal January 12–13, 2022630 ± 3.9%45%46%9%
Global Strategy Group June 17–23, 2021800 ± 3.5%48%40%12%

Michael Bennet vs. generic opponent

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Michael
Bennet
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates July 24–26, 2022500 ± 4.4%44%42%14%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
co/efficient September 9–12, 2021742 ± 3.6%44%42%14%