2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election


The 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor and governor of Pennsylvania">governor of Pennsylvania">governor of Pennsylvania. Democratic state Attorney General Josh Shapiro defeated Republican state Senator Doug Mastriano to win his first term in office. Shapiro succeeded Democratic incumbent Tom Wolf, who was term limited.
In the primaries on May 17, 2022, Shapiro was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Mastriano, who was endorsed by Donald Trump, won the Republican nomination with 44% of the vote over former congressman Lou Barletta and former U.S. attorney William McSwain. Although the election was expected to be competitive due to Pennsylvania's reputation as a swing state, Mastriano had trouble fundraising, made few media appearances, committed multiple gaffes, was accused of antisemitism against Shapiro, and generated controversy from his far-right positions. Mastriano's struggles helped Shapiro take a strong polling lead that continued up to the election.
Shapiro defeated Mastriano by almost 15 points, the largest margin for a non-incumbent candidate for Pennsylvania governor since 1946, and earned the most votes of a Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate at just over three million. His large margin of victory was credited with helping down-ballot Democrats in concurrent elections. The victory also marked the first time since 1844 that the Democratic Party won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in Pennsylvania, and the first since 1950 that any party had done so. According to exit polls, Shapiro won independent voters by a 31-point margin, which contributed to Mastriano's defeat.

Democratic primary

Governor

Campaign

ran unopposed and was described as the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee by The [Philadelphia Inquirer] and the Pennsylvania Capital-Star early in the campaign, with the Capital-Star reporting that efforts to recruit a primary challenger to the left of Shapiro had failed.

Candidates

Nominee

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominee

Republican primary

In the Republican primary, leading candidates included former congressman Lou Barletta, Montgomery County commissioner Joe Gale, political strategist Charlie Gerow, former U.S. Attorney William McSwain, state Senator Doug Mastriano, and former Delaware County councilmember Dave White.
Several key issues, such as school choice, natural gas exploration in PA, and tax reform, were early themes in the Pennsylvania GOP debates before the primary election, while voting laws in the Commonwealth were a later topic of debate.
Due to his support for overturning the results of the 2020 presidential election and his role in the January 6 [United States Capitol attack|January 6 U.S. Capitol attack], many Republicans expressed concern about Mastriano's ability to win the general election. As a result, the party encouraged other candidates to drop out to allow for an alternative to Mastriano to gain traction.
On May 12, president pro tempore of the Pennsylvania Senate Jake Corman dropped out and endorsed Barletta. On May 14, former president Donald Trump endorsed Mastriano. On May 12, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that former U.S. Representative Melissa Hart would also drop out and endorse Barletta. Mastriano won the primary with almost 44% of the vote, defeating his nearest competitor, Barletta, by over 23 points.
York Times">York County, Pennsylvania">York Times reported in mid-June that Mastriano had been aided in the primary by the Pennsylvania Democratic Party and Shapiro's campaign with an ad equating him to Trump. Shapiro defended the move, saying the ad demonstrated the contrast between him and Mastriano as part of the general election campaign. The Times saw it as part of a nationwide strategy to gain easier opponents in November.

Governor

Candidates

Nominee

Polling

Graphical summary

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Lou
Barletta		Jake
Corman		Doug
Mastriano		William
McSwain		Dave
White		Other
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsMay 3–16, 2022May 17, 202220.3%2.7%34.3%15.3%9.8%17.6%Mastriano +14.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

  • Brandon Flood, former secretary of the Pennsylvania Board of Pardons ''''

Libertarian nomination

The Libertarian Party nominees qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.

Governor

Nominee

  • Matt Hackenburg, aerospace computer engineer

Eliminated in board vote

Withdrew

Lieutenant governor

Nominee

Withdrew

Green convention

The Green Party nominees qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.

Governor

Nominee

Withdrew

Lieutenant governor

Nominee

Keystone nomination

Governor

Nominee

Withdrew

  • Eddie Wenrich, store manager

Lieutenant governor

Nominee

General election

Campaign

Attorney General Josh Shapiro ran a progressive campaign emphasizing protecting abortion rights, voter rights, and raising the state's minimum wage to $15 an hour. On criminal justice issues, Shapiro promised to sign a bill abolishing the death penalty having previously supported it, but also faced criticism from some left-wing voters for adopting a "tough on crime" image. In addition, he has openly feuded with Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner.
State Senator Doug Mastriano positioned himself as a staunch ally of former president Donald Trump, promoting conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, defense of Confederate monuments, arming school teachers with firearms, and disregarding COVID-19 safety protocols. Mastriano also drew accusations of antisemitism for using anti-semitic dogwhistles against Shapiro. One of Mastriano's most vocal supporters was Andrew Torba, the CEO of far-right social media website Gab, a website on which the perpetrator of the Tree of Life Synagogue shooting posted before committing the massacre. Torba donated $500 to the Mastriano campaign, and Mastriano himself told the Gab founder in an interview, "Thank God for what you've done."
No debate was held during the general election, as Shapiro and Mastriano were unable to come to an agreement on how to debate. In addition, Mastriano did not release his first general election ads until October, while the more well-funded Shapiro had already spent $18.6 million in television broadcasting by that time. These factors, combined with Mastriano's refusal to talk to major media outlets and decision to ban journalists from campaign rallies, severely limited his voter outreach.

Polling

Aggregate polls

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Josh
Shapiro 		Doug
Mastriano 		OtherUndecided
Research Co.November 4–6, 2022450 ± 4.6%53%41%2%4%
Targoz Market ResearchNovember 2–6, 2022631 ± 3.8%52%46%3%–
InsiderAdvantage November 3, 2022750 ± 3.6%51%43%3%4%
The Trafalgar Group November 1–3, 20221,097 ± 2.9%50%45%2%3%
Remington Research Group November 1–2, 20221,180 ± 2.8%52%40%3%4%
Marist CollegeOctober 31 – November 2, 20221,152 ± 3.8%54%39%1%7%
Marist CollegeOctober 31 – November 2, 20221,021 ± 4.0%54%40%–5%
Susquehanna Polling & Research October 28 – November 1, 2022700 ± 3.7%52%38%1%9%
Emerson CollegeOctober 28–31, 20221,000 ± 3.0%50%41%5%5%
Emerson CollegeOctober 28–31, 20221,000 ± 3.0%53%43%5%–
Suffolk UniversityOctober 27–30, 2022500 ± 4.4%52%40%1%7%
Fox NewsOctober 26–30, 20221,005 ± 3.0%53%37%4%6%
Big Data PollOctober 27–28, 20221,005 ± 3.1%49%44%4%4%
co/efficient October 26–28, 20221,716 ± 3.4%51%41%4%4%
Muhlenberg CollegeOctober 24–28, 2022460 ± 6.0%54%40%2%4%
Wick Insights October 26–27, 20221,000 ± 3.2%49%43%2%6%
Siena Research/NYTOctober 24–26, 2022620 ± 4.4%53%40%<1%7%
InsiderAdvantage October 25, 2022750 ± 3.6%50%42%4%4%
YouGov/CBS NewsOctober 21–24, 20221,084 ± 4.1%54%45%––
Franklin & Marshall CollegeOctober 14–23, 2022620 ± 5.3%54%32%6%10%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeOctober 14–23, 2022384 ± 6.8%58%36%––
Rasmussen Reports October 19–20, 2022972 ± 3.0%43%40%6%10%
Echelon InsightsOctober 18–20, 2022500 ± 4.8%50%38%3%8%
InsiderAdvantage October 19, 2022550 ± 4.2%49%42%3%6%
CNN/SSRSOctober 13–17, 2022901 ± 4.1%56%39%5%–
CNN/SSRSOctober 13–17, 2022703 ± 4.6%56%41%2%–
Wick InsightsOctober 8–14, 20221,013 ± 3.1%49%46%2%3%
Patriot PollingOctober 10–12, 2022857 –50%45%–5%
Fabrizio Ward /Impact Research October 4–12, 20221,400 ± 4.4%53%42%1%4%
The Trafalgar Group October 8–11, 20221,078 ± 2.9%53%44%1%2%
Monmouth UniversitySeptember 29 – October 3, 2022610 ± 4.8%54%38%–8%
Suffolk UniversitySeptember 27–30, 2022500 ± 4.4%48%37%2%13%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 23–26, 20221,000 ± 3.0%51%41%2%7%
Fox NewsSeptember 19–25, 20221,008 ± 3%51%40%–9%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeSeptember 19–25, 2022517 ± 5.6%51%37%–12%
InsiderAdvantage September 23–24, 2022550 ± 4.2%52%37%4%7%
Marist CollegeSeptember 19–22, 20221,242 ± 3.5%53%40%<1%6%
Marist CollegeSeptember 19–22, 20221,043 ± 3.8%54%42%–4%
The Phillips Academy PollSeptember 16–19, 2022759 ± 3.6%46%43%12%
Muhlenberg CollegeSeptember 13–16, 2022420 ± 6.0%53%42%1%3%
The Trafalgar Group September 13–15, 20221,078 ± 2.9%47%45%4%3%
Monmouth UniversitySeptember 8–12, 2022605 ± 4.0%54%36%––
YouGov/CBS NewsSeptember 6–12, 20221,188 ± 3.8%55%44%–1%
RABA ResearchAugust 31 – September 3, 2022679 ± 3.8%47%41%4%9%
Survey Monkey August 31 – September 1, 20221,012 ± 3.0%53%32%–15%
Survey Monkey August 31 – September 1, 2022616 ± 3.0%56%35%–9%
Emerson CollegeAugust 22–23, 20221,034 ± 3.0%47%44%3%6%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeAugust 15–21, 2022522 ± 5.3%48%36%4%12%
The Trafalgar Group August 15–18, 20221,096 ± 2.9%49%45%2%5%
Public Opinion Strategies August 7–10, 2022600 ± 4.0%51%37%–11%
Fox NewsJuly 22–26, 2022908 ± 3.0%50%40%1%8%
Blueprint Polling July 19–21, 2022712 ± 3.7%51%39%–10%
Beacon Research July 5–20, 20221,012 ± 3.1%49%35%1%12%
Beacon Research July 5–20, 2022609 ± 4.0%52%39%1%7%
Global Strategy Group July 14–19, 20221,200 ± 2.9%50%42%–7%
Fabrizio Ward /Impact Research June 12–19, 20221,382 ± 4.4%49%46%–5%
Cygnal June 16–17, 2022535 ± 4.2%48%45%–7%
Suffolk UniversityJune 10–13, 2022500 ± 4.4%44%40%3%13%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Generic
Democrat		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies May 12–18, 2022600 ± 4.6%47%45%8%

By county

By congressional district

Shapiro won 11 of 17 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.
DistrictShapiroMastrianoRepresentative
59%39%Brian Fitzpatrick
76%22%Brendan Boyle
92%6%Dwight Evans
66%32%Madeleine Dean
70%28%Mary Gay Scanlon
61%37%Chrissy Houlahan
55%43%Susan Wild
54%44%Matt Cartwright
38%59%Dan Meuser
55%43%Scott Perry
46%52%Lloyd Smucker
68%30%Mike Doyle
68%30%Summer Lee
34%64%John Joyce
44%55%Guy Reschenthaler
38%60%Glenn Thompson
48%50%Mike Kelly
62%36%Conor Lamb
62%36%Chris Deluzio

Analysis

Josh Shapiro defeated Doug Mastriano by 14.8%. While this marked a 2.73% Republican swing from 2018, it was still 13.18% larger than Joe Biden's win in the 2020 [United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|presidential race in Pennsylvania] two years earlier in 2020, and 9.86% larger than Shapiro's 2020 [Pennsylvania Attorney General election|reelection for Attorney General] that same year. All counties in the Keystone State voted the exact same way they did in 2018, with Shapiro doing best in heavily populated Southeastern Pennsylvania, which is made up of Philadelphia and its suburbs, Berks County, the Lehigh Valley, the Wyoming Valley, the Susquehanna Valley, Erie County in the northwest corner, and finally, Greater Pittsburgh in the southwest.
Doug Mastriano, meanwhile, piled up large margins in Pennsylvania's rural counties, but also won some populous places located in the western part of the state, like Butler, Washington, and Westmoreland counties near Pittsburgh. However, Mastriano significantly underperformed President Donald Trump's margins in the 2020 Presidential election in some of those counties; Westmoreland County, for example, voted for Trump by 28 points in 2020, but only backed Mastriano by 6 points in 2022. A similar leftward shift happened in neighboring Washington County, with Shapiro only losing the county by 2 points despite Joe Biden losing the county by over 20 points 2 years earlier. Mastriano also carried Lancaster, including the counties contained either fully or partially within his State Senate district, namely Adams, Franklin and York. Except for Adams and Franklin counties, Lancaster and York were once again carried by single digits by the Republican gubernatorial candidate just like 2018, as Mastriano's extremist views likely turned off moderate independents and Republicans in these areas.
Southeastern Pennsylvania, a strong Democratic area during elections, shifted more Democratic. This region, with strongly Democratic Philadelphia, anchored by its suburbs, has become a Democratic stronghold in elections. Shapiro comfortably won all Delaware Valley counties and piled up large margins in its suburbs. Its electorate is highly educated, affluent, and diverse. In addition to the region's strong Democratic tilt, abortion rights were a significant campaign issue among voters. According to CNN polling data, 62% of Pennsylvania voters believed abortion should be legal, and those voters broke for Shapiro by a landslide margin of 81%–18%. College-educated voters, who made up 41% of the electorate, also voted heavily for Shapiro by a 64%–35% margin. Shapiro won 92% of Black voters, 72% of Latino voters, and 50% of White voters. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Shapiro won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Mastriano's defeat.

Voter demographics

Voter demographic data for 2022 was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by 2,657 voters in person as well as by phone.