2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
The 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor and Governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the [2018 United States Senate 2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania|election in Pennsylvania|election] of Pennsylvania's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. Incumbent Governor Tom Wolf won a second term by a double-digit margin, defeating Republican challenger Scott Wagner and two third-party candidates from the Green Party, Paul Glover and Libertarian Party, Ken Krawchuk. The primary elections were held on May 15. This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.
Wagner won 8 counties that Wolf won in 2014: Lawrence, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Clinton, Northumberland, Carbon, and Schuylkill. Meanwhile, this was the first time since Bob Casey Jr.'s landslide State Treasurer win in 2004 that Cumberland County voted for the Democrat in a statewide election.
Democratic primary
Governor
Candidate
Nominated
- Tom Wolf, incumbent governor
Results
Lieutenant governor
Incumbent Lieutenant Governor Mike Stack faced several controversies during his term, including mistreatment of state police officers assigned as his security detail. As a result, he faced several challengers in the primary, including 2016 Senate candidate John Fetterman. Stack was ultimately defeated by Fetterman, placing fourth overall.Candidates
Nominated
- John Fetterman, mayor of Braddock and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016
Eliminated in the primary
- Nina Ahmad, former deputy mayor of Philadelphia
- Kathi Cozzone, Chester County Commissioner
- Ray Sosa, banker and insurance broker
- Mike Stack, incumbent lieutenant governor
Withdrawn
- Aryanna Berringer, Iraq War veteran and nominee for PA-16 in 2012
- Madeleine Dean, state representative
- Craig Lehman, Lancaster County commissioner
Declined
- Erin McClelland, nominee for PA-12 in 2014 and 2016
Republican primary
Governor
Candidates
Nominated
Eliminated in the primary
- Laura Ellsworth, attorney
- Paul Mango, businessman and former U.S. Army officer
Withdrawn
- Mike Turzai, speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives and nominee for PA-04 in 1998
Declined
- Paul Addis, businessman
- Lou Barletta, U.S. representative
- Jake Corman, majority leader of the Pennsylvania State Senate
- Mike Kelly, U.S. representative
- Dave Reed, majority leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives
Polling
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Scott Wagner | Paul Mango | Mike Turzai | Undecided |
| McLaughlin & Associates | April 9–10, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 8% | 10% | 45% |
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Nominated
- Jeff Bartos, businessman
Eliminated in the primary
- Kathy Coder, political activist
- Peg Luksik, political activist
- Diana Irey Vaughan, Washington County commissioner
Removed from the ballot
- Joe Gale, Montgomery County commissioner
Withdrawn
- Gordon Denlinger, former state representative
- Otto Voit, candidate for state treasurer in 2016
Considered potential
- Dave Argall, state senator and nominee for PA-17 in 2010
- Erin Elmore, attorney, political correspondent and The Apprentice contestant
Declined
- Dan Meuser, former Pennsylvania secretary of revenue and candidate for PA-10 in 2008
- Justin Simmons, state representative
Green Party
Governor
Candidates
Nominated
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Nominated
- Jocolyn Bowser-Bostick
Libertarian Party
Governor
Candidates
Nominated
Lieutenant governor
Nominated
- Kathleen Smith, entrepreneur
General election
Candidates
- Paul Glover, author, community organizer
- Ken Krawchuk, IT entrepreneur, freelance writer
- Scott Wagner, former state senator
- Tom Wolf, incumbent governor
Debates
- October 1, 2018:
Polling
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tom Wolf | Scott Wagner | Other | Undecided |
| Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 1,833 | – | 53% | 42% | 3% | – |
| Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 39% | 1% | 6% |
| Muhlenberg College | October 28 – November 1, 2018 | 421 | ± 5.5% | 58% | 37% | – | – |
| Franklin & Marshall College | October 22–28, 2018 | 214 LV | ± 9.5% | 59% | 33% | – | 5% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | October 22–28, 2018 | 537 RV | ± 6.0% | 57% | 27% | 6% | 10% |
| Morning Consult | October 1–2, 2018 | 1,188 | ± 3.0% | 48% | 36% | – | 16% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | September 17–23, 2018 | 204 LV | – | 52% | 30% | – | 17% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | September 17–23, 2018 | 545 RV | ± 6.1% | 52% | 28% | 2% | 18% |
| Ipsos | September 12–20, 2018 | 1,080 | ± 3.0% | 55% | 38% | 2% | 6% |
| Muhlenberg College | September 13–19, 2018 | 404 | ± 5.5% | 55% | 36% | 6% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 12–13, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 52% | 40% | 3% | 5% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | August 20–26, 2018 | 222 LV | – | 52% | 35% | 1% | 12% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | August 20–26, 2018 | 511 RV | ± 6.1% | 51% | 32% | 5% | 14% |
| Marist College | August 12–16, 2018 | 713 | ± 4.2% | 54% | 40% | <1% | 6% |
| Commonwealth Leaders Fund | August 13–15, 2018 | 2,012 | ± 3.6% | 46% | 43% | 3% | 8% |
| Suffolk University | June 21–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 36% | 1% | 14% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | June 4–10, 2018 | 472 | ± 6.5% | 48% | 29% | 1% | 23% |
| Muhlenberg College | April 4–12, 2018 | 414 | ± 5.5% | 47% | 31% | 5% | 16% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 19–26, 2018 | 137 | ± 6.8% | 38% | 21% | 6% | 35% |
with Paul Mango
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tom Wolf | Paul Mango | Other | Undecided |
| Muhlenberg College | April 4–12, 2018 | 414 | ± 5.5% | 47% | 27% | 5% | 22% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 19–26, 2018 | 143 | ± 6.8% | 49% | 22% | 4% | 25% |
with Laura Ellsworth
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tom Wolf | Laura Ellsworth | Other | Undecided |
| Muhlenberg College | April 4–12, 2018 | 414 | ± 5.5% | 46% | 26% | 4% | 24% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 19–26, 2018 | 143 | ± 6.8% | 51% | 22% | 2% | 25% |
Results
The election was not close, with Wolf defeating Wagner by about 17 percentage points. Wolf won by running up large margins in Allegheny County, including Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia County, including Philadelphia. Wolf's victory can also be attributed to his strong performance in Philadelphia suburbs.Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Wolf won 12 of 18 congressional districts, including three that elected Republicans.| District | Wolf | Wagner | Representative |
| 1st | 59% | 40% | Brian Fitzpatrick |
| 2nd | 79% | 20% | Brendan Boyle |
| 3rd | 93% | 6% | Dwight Evans |
| 4th | 66% | 32% | Madeleine Dean |
| 5th | 69% | 29% | Mary Gay Scanlon |
| 6th | 61% | 37% | Chrissy Houlahan |
| 7th | 59% | 39% | Susan Wild |
| 8th | 56% | 43% | Matt Cartwright |
| 9th | 44% | 54% | Dan Meuser |
| 10th | 54% | 44% | Scott Perry |
| 11th | 45% | 53% | Lloyd Smucker |
| 12th | 39% | 59% | Tom Marino |
| 13th | 35% | 63% | John Joyce |
| 14th | 48% | 51% | Guy Reschenthaler |
| 15th | 38% | 60% | Glenn Thompson |
| 16th | 50% | 49% | Mike Kelly |
| 17th | 59% | 39% | Conor Lamb |
| 18th | 72% | 26% | Mike Doyle |