2022 United States Senate election in Arizona
The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona.
The seat was previously held by Republican John McCain, who won his final term in 2016 [United States Senate election in Arizona|2016] and died from glioblastoma on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of that year and Ducey replaced him with Martha McSally, who then lost to Democrat Mark Kelly in 2020.
Primaries in Arizona took place on August 2, 2022. Kelly won renomination without opposition, while venture capitalist Blake Masters won the Republican nomination against a large field of candidates. Although Arizona typically leans Republican, Kelly led Masters by low single digits in aggregate polling. Kelly held a significant fundraising advantage until many Republican-aligned groups began spending to assist Masters in the final weeks of the campaign. On November 1, Libertarian nominee Marc Victor dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters.
Kelly won re-election on his first full term in office, defeating Masters by a comfortable margin of about 5 points. This was the first time Democrats won a full term to this seat since 1962 [United States Senate election in Arizona|1962]. The 2022 race was competitive and seen as crucial to determining party control of the U.S. Senate; with Kelly's victory in Arizona and a Democratic victory in Nevada, in addition to a Democratic gain in Pennsylvania, it was projected on November 12 that the Democratic caucus would retain control of the Senate in the 118th United States Congress. Masters conceded the race to Kelly on November 15, 2022.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mark Kelly, incumbent U.S. Senator
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Blake Masters, former president of the Thiel Foundation and former chief operating officer of Thiel Capital
Eliminated in primary
- Mark Brnovich, Arizona attorney general
- Jim Lamon, solar power businessman
- Mick McGuire, retired U.S. Air Force major general and former adjutant general of the Arizona National Guard
- Justin Olson, member of the Arizona Corporation Commission
Did not file
- Craig Brittain
- Robert Paveza, software engineer
Declined
- Kirk Adams, former chief of staff to Governor Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives
- Andy Biggs, U.S. representative for
- Doug Ducey, outgoing governor of Arizona
- Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor
- Jack McCain, veteran and son of former U.S. Senator John McCain
- Martha McSally, former U.S. senator from Arizona
- Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party, former state senator, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018
- Kimberly Yee, state treasurer of Arizona ''''
Polling
Aggregate polls| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Mark Brnovich | Jim Lamon | Blake Masters | Michael McGuire | Justin Olson | Undecided | Margin |
| Real Clear Politics | July 27 – August 1, 2022 | August 2, 2022 | 14.5% | 22.0% | 37.0% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 17.7% | Masters +15.0 |
Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Brnovich | Jim Lamon | Blake Masters | Michael McGuire | Justin Olson | Other | Undecided |
| The Trafalgar Group | July 30 – August 1, 2022 | 1,064 | ± 2.9% | 16% | 24% | 39% | 7% | 4% | – | 9% |
| Emerson College | July 28–30, 2022 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 14% | 22% | 40% | 12% | 3% | – | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 27–28, 2022 | 710 | ± 4.0% | 16% | 19% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 6% | 15% |
| OH Predictive Insights | July 27, 2022 | 502 | ± 4.4% | 12% | 21% | 36% | 5% | 3% | – | 22% |
| Battleground Connect | July 26–27, 2022 | 800 | ± 3.7% | 16% | 30% | 28% | 8% | 6% | – | 12% |
| The Trafalgar Group | July 25–27, 2022 | 1,071 | ± 2.9% | 15% | 27% | 35% | 8% | 6% | – | 10% |
| Battleground Connect | July 17–18, 2022 | 800 | ± 3.7% | 16% | 33% | 28% | 7% | 2% | – | 14% |
| Cygnal | July 12–13, 2022 | 419 | ± 4.8% | 18% | 20% | 30% | 5% | 2% | – | 25% |
| Battleground Connect | July 7–9, 2022 | 800 | ± 3.7% | 16% | 29% | 27% | 4% | – | – | 24% |
| HighGround Public Affairs | July 2–7, 2022 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 13% | 14% | 23% | 5% | 2% | – | 44% |
| Alloy Analytics /J.L. Partners | July 5–6, 2022 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 10% | 14% | 26% | 5% | 0% | – | 45% |
| OH Predictive Insights | June 30 – July 2, 2022 | 515 | ± 4.3% | 14% | 18% | 25% | 6% | 2% | – | 35% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 28, 2022 | 595 | ± 4.0% | 15% | 10% | 29% | 5% | – | – | 41% |
| The Trafalgar Group | June 7–9, 2022 | 1,077 | ± 2.9% | 24% | 17% | 29% | 4% | 4% | – | 22% |
| Data Orbital | June 1–3, 2022 | 550 | ± 4.3% | 18% | 20% | 15% | – | – | 12% | 36% |
| Fabrizio Lee | May 17–18, 2022 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 18% | 18% | 22% | 7% | 2% | – | 34% |
| Cygnal | April 28–30, 2022 | – | – | 19% | 20% | 19% | 7% | 2% | – | 33% |
| The Trafalgar Group | April 25–28, 2022 | 1,064 | ± 3.0% | 24% | 25% | 19% | 8% | 3% | – | 21% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | April 21–24, 2022 | – | – | 22% | 25% | 16% | 6% | – | – | 31% |
| OH Predictive Insights | April 4–5, 2022 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 21% | 16% | 9% | 6% | 3% | – | 45% |
| Data Orbital | April 1–3, 2022 | 550 | ± 4.3% | 20% | 26% | 10% | 7% | 4% | – | 33% |
| HighGround Public Affairs | March 26–27, 2022 | 264 | ± 6.0% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 4% | – | 8% | 61% |
| Fabrizio Lee | March 13–14, 2022 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 3% | 1% | – | 52% |
| Alloy Analytics /J.L. Partners | March 9–12, 2022 | 433 | ± 4.7% | 20% | 15% | 15% | 3% | 1% | – | 45% |
| Data Orbital | March 2022 | – | – | 23% | 17% | 14% | 4% | 5% | – | 37% |
| Data Orbital | February 11–13, 2022 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 22% | 17% | 15% | 5% | 5% | – | 37% |
| co/efficient | February 6–8, 2022 | 755 | ± 3.6% | 17% | 13% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 11% | 44% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 11–13, 2022 | 302 | ± 5.6% | 25% | 7% | 6% | 11% | 4% | – | 47% |
| OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 252 | ± 6.2% | 27% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 2% | – | 46% |
| Fabrizio Lee | October 26–28, 2021 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 26% | 4% | 14% | 2% | 2% | <1% | 52% |
| OnMessage Inc. | September 9–12, 2021 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 5% | 7% | 4% | – | – | 43% |
| OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 311 | ± 5.6% | 27% | 3% | 6% | 14% | – | – | 51% |
| Fabrizio Lee | August 4–8, 2021 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 29% | 7% | 5% | 3% | – | <1% | 56% |
| HighGround Public Affairs | May 3–5, 2021 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 28% | – | 1% | 1% | – | – | 61% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kirk Adams | Andy Biggs | Mark Brnovich | Doug Ducey | Jim Lamon | Blake Masters | Michael McGuire | Justin Olson | Other | Undecided |
| co/efficient | February 6–8, 2022 | 755 | ± 3.6% | – | – | 14% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 9% | 38% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 11–13, 2022 | 302 | ± 5.6% | – | – | 13% | 35% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 2% | – | 34% |
| WPA Intelligence | April 5–6, 2021 | 505 | ± 4.4% | – | 46% | – | 45% | – | – | – | – | – | 9% |
| OH Predictive Insights | March 8–12, 2021 | 690 | ± 3.7% | 2% | 27% | – | – | – | 2% | 3% | – | – | 67% |
| OH Predictive Insights | March 8–12, 2021 | 690 | ± 3.7% | 6% | 26% | – | – | – | 2% | 10% | – | – | 56% |
| Data Orbital | February 17–19, 2021 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 2% | 36% | – | – | 1% | 1% | 3% | – | 4% | 53% |
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Marc Victor, attorney and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012
General election
In what was initially expected to be one of the most widely contested elections in the nation, Kelly amassed a massive fundraising advantage over Masters, raising a record $75 million compared to Masters's $12 million. Due to the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson [Women's Health Organization] decision, which reversed Roe v. Wade, Kelly spent the campaign heavily attacking Masters over his anti-abortion stance, which was seen as hurting Masters especially among women voters. He also attacked Masters's support for privatizing Social Security, as Arizona has many retired seniors who use the program. Masters's claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen also hurt him among voters. Steven J. Law, the leader of a Republican-aligned super PAC, said that Masters "had scored the worst focus group results of any candidate he had ever seen," and cancelled all of its Arizona television advertisements supporting Masters to divert money to other races.With the limited amount of money he had, Masters attempted to portray Kelly as weak on illegal immigration, supportive of spending programs that caused inflation, and too supportive of President Joe Biden. In the final weeks of the campaign, Republican groups increased the amount of money they were spending on the race and polls began to tighten, and many news outlets moved the race from lean Democrat to tossup. However, in the end, Kelly relatively easily defeated Masters, which helped Democrats in retaining the Senate. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Masters's defeat.
Polling
Aggregate pollsGraphical summary
Mark Kelly vs. Mark Brnovich
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Kelly | Mark Brnovich | Other | Undecided |
| Beacon Research | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 | ± 3.5% | 49% | 35% | 1% | 11% |
| Beacon Research | July 5–20, 2022 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 51% | 40% | 2% | 7% |
| Blueprint Polling | May 12–16, 2022 | 608 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 33% | – | 18% |
| Data for Progress | January 21–24, 2022 | 1,469 | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
| OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 39% | – | 18% |
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 | ± 3.2% | 46% | 36% | – | 18% |
Mark Kelly vs. Jim Lamon
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Kelly | Jim Lamon | Other | Undecided |
| Beacon Research | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 34% | 2% | 14% |
| Beacon Research | July 5–20, 2022 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | 2% | 9% |
| Change Research | June 24–27, 2022 | 705 | ± 3.7% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
| Blueprint Polling | May 12–16, 2022 | 608 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 34% | – | 18% |
| OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 36% | – | 21% |
Mark Kelly vs. Michael McGuire
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Kelly | Michael McGuire | Undecided |
| OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 | ± 3.3% | 44% | 37% | 19% |
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 35% | 21% |
Mark Kelly vs. Andy Biggs
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Kelly | Andy Biggs | Undecided |
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 | ± 3.2% | 47% | 36% | 18% |
Mark Kelly vs. Doug Ducey
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Kelly | Doug Ducey | Undecided |
| Data for Progress | January 21–24, 2022 | 1,469 | ± 3.0% | 50% | 47% | 4% |
Mark Kelly vs. Kelli Ward
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Kelly | Kelli Ward | Undecided |
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 | ± 3.2% | 47% | 36% | 18% |
Mark Kelly vs. Kari Lake
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Kelly | Kari Lake | Undecided |
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 | ± 3.2% | 46% | 35% | 19% |
Mark Kelly vs. Jack McCain
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Kelly | Jack McCain | Undecided |
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 | ± 3.2% | 43% | 29% | 28% |
Mark Kelly vs. Kimberly Yee
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Kelly | Kimberly Yee | Undecided |
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 35% | 19% |
Mark Kelly vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Kelly | Generic Republican | Other | Undecided |
| OH Predictive Insights | May 9–16, 2022 | 938 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 39% | – | 21% |
| HighGround Public Affairs | March 26–27, 2022 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 2% | 12% |
| OH Predictive Insights | March 7–15, 2022 | 753 | ± 3.6% | 37% | 39% | – | 24% |
| Change Research | March 2022 | – | – | 43% | 46% | – | 11% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 11–13, 2022 | 855 | ± 3.4% | 42% | 38% | – | 19% |
| OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 713 | ± 3.7% | 40% | 39% | – | 21% |
Mark Kelly vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Kelly | Generic Opponent | Undecided |
| Fabrizio Lee | July 13–14, 2022 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Undecided |
| Fabrizio Lee | July 13–14, 2022 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
Results
By congressional district
Kelly won five of nine congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.| District | Kelly | Masters | Representative |
| 52% | 46% | David Schweikert | |
| 46% | 51% | Tom O'Halleran | |
| 46% | 51% | Eli Crane | |
| 76% | 21% | Ruben Gallego | |
| 57% | 41% | Greg Stanton | |
| 44% | 54% | Andy Biggs | |
| 54% | 44% | Ann Kirkpatrick | |
| 54% | 44% | Juan Ciscomani | |
| 68% | 30% | Raúl Grijalva | |
| 46% | 52% | Debbie Lesko | |
| 38% | 60% | Paul Gosar |