2011 alleged Iran assassination plot
On 11 October 2011, United States officials alleged there was a plot tied to the Iranian government to assassinate Saudi ambassador Adel al-Jubeir in the United States. The plot was referred to as the "Iran assassination plot" or the "Iran terror plot" in the media, while the Federal Bureau of Investigation named the case "Operation Red Coalition". Iranian nationals Manssor Arbabsiar and Gholam Shakuri were charged on 11 October 2011 in federal court in New York with plotting to assassinate Al-Jubeir. According to U.S. officials, the two planned to kill Al-Jubeir at a restaurant with a bomb and subsequently bomb the Saudi embassy and the Israeli embassy in Washington, D.C. Bombings in Buenos Aires were also discussed. Arbabsiar was arrested on 29 September 2011 at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York while Shakuri remained at large. On 24 October 2011, Arbabsiar pleaded not guilty. In May 2013, after pleading guilty, Arbabsiar was sentenced to 25-years imprisonment.
It is debated whether the Iranian government condoned or facilitated the plot; some experts suggested that the planners may be rogue elements within the Iranian secret service.
Assassination plot
Charges announced
On 11 October 2011, the U.S. Attorney General and the Director of the FBI announced two individuals have been charged in federal court for their participation in a plot allegedly directed by elements of the Iranian government to murder the Saudi Ambassador to the United States with explosives while the Ambassador was in the United States. "The criminal complaint unsealed today exposes a deadly plot directed by factions of the Iranian government to assassinate a foreign Ambassador on U.S. soil with explosives," said Attorney General Eric Holder. "Though it reads like the pages of a Hollywood script, the impact would have been very real and many lives would have been lost," FBI Director Robert Mueller said. The criminal complaint charged Manssor Arbabsiar, a 56-year-old naturalized U.S. citizen holding both Iranian and U.S. passports, and Gholam Shakuri, a commander in Iran's Quds Force, the special-operations unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.The U.S. Government alleged that the Quds Force "conducts sensitive covert operations abroad, including terrorist attacks, assassinations and kidnappings, and is believed to sponsor attacks against Coalition Forces in Iraq." In October 2007, the U.S. Treasury Department had designated the Quds Force as providing material support to the Taliban and other terrorist organizations. The defendants were charged with conspiracy to murder a foreign official, conspiracy to engage in foreign travel and use of interstate and foreign commerce facilities in the commission of murder-for-hire, conspiracy to use a weapon of mass destruction, and conspiracy to commit an act of international terrorism transcending national boundaries.
Plot
The details of the plot were established in later court proceedings. According to these events, Arbabsiar met with Shakuri from the spring of 2011 to October 2011 to plot the murder of the Saudi Ambassador, and met with a Drug Enforcement Administration source in Mexico who posed as an associate of an international drug trafficking cartel. According to the complaint, Arbabsiar arranged to hire the source to murder the Ambassador using explosives, and Shakuri and other Iran-based co-conspirators were aware of and approved the plan. With Shakuri's approval, Arbabsiar caused $100,000 to be wired into a bank account in the United States as a down payment for the killing. In June and July 2011, the complaint stated, Arbabsiar returned to Mexico and held additional meetings with the DEA source, where Arbabsiar explained that his associates in Iran had discussed a number of further missions they wanted the source and his associates to perform, including the murder of the Ambassador.During a 14 July 2011 meeting in Mexico, the source and Arbabsiar agreed that four men would be used to orchestrate the Ambassador's killing and that the total price would be $1.5 million for the murder. Arbabsiar also assured the source that $100,000 would be forthcoming from Iran as a further payment towards the assassination and discussed the manner in which that payment would be made. During the meeting, Arbabsiar described having a cousin in Iran who was a "big general" in the military, and had requested that Arbabsiar find someone to carry out the Ambassador's assassination. In a 17 July 2011 meeting in Mexico, the source told Arbabsiar that one of his workers had traveled to Washington, D.C. and had observed the Ambassador. They discussed bombing a restaurant in the United States that the Ambassador frequented. The source told Arbabsiar there might be innocent civilian casualties, to which Arbabsiar replied "They want that guy done, if a hundred go with him, f**k 'em", and that such concerns were "no big deal". On 1 August 2011 and 9 August 2011, with Shakuri's approval, Arbabsiar caused two overseas wire transfers totaling approximately $100,000 to be sent as a down payment for carrying out the assassination.
Arrest and confession
On 20 September 2011, the source told Arbabsiar that the operation was ready and requested that Arbabsiar either pay one half of the agreed upon price of $1.5 million or that Arbabsiar personally travel to Mexico as collateral for the final payment. According to the complaint, Arbabsiar agreed to travel to Mexico, and did so on 28 September 2011. He was refused entry by Mexican authorities and flown to John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York where he was promptly arrested by U.S. federal agents and subsequently confessed to the plot. According to the complaint, Arbabsiar told agents that he was "recruited, funded and directed by men he understood to be senior officials in Iran's Quds Force," including his cousin who he had "long understood to be a senior member of the Quds Force." Arbabsiar claimed he had met several times in Iran with Shakuri and another senior Quds Force official where they discussed blowing up a restaurant in the United States frequented by the Ambassador and that numerous bystanders could be killed.In early October 2011, according to the complaint, Arbabsiar made phone calls at the direction of law enforcement agents to Shakuri in Iran that were secretly monitored. During these phone calls, Shakuri confirmed that Arbabsiar should move forward with the plot to murder the Ambassador and that he should accomplish the task as quickly as possible, stating on 5 October 2011, "just do it quickly, it's late..." Investigations by the FBI disclosed that money had been wired from a Quds Force bank account, and that Arbabsiar correctly identified a known Quds Force officer from a photo array shown to him in custody.
Conviction
On 24 October 2011, Arbabsiar at first pleaded not guilty, but later changed his plea to guilty. On 30 May 2013, he was sentenced to 25 years in prison.Manssor Arbabsiar, register number, is now currently serving his sentence at Marion USP with a projected release date of 28 July 2033.
Alleged responsibility
U.S. officials said that it was "more than likely" that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the head of the Quds Force, Major General Qasem Soleimani, knew of the plot, but acknowledged this was based on analysis rather than hard evidence. They speculated it was inconceivable that in Iran's hierarchy Khamenei or Suleimani would not be aware of such an action, stating "it would be our assessment that this kind of operation would have been discussed at the highest levels of the regime." The officials acknowledged that the plot was far "outside the pattern" of the Quds Force past activity.Other commentators speculated that the men may have been acting as rogue elements in the Iranian government rather than the actual government itself. A senior U.S. law enforcement official who would speak only on the condition of anonymity stated, "It's so outside their normal track of activity. It's a rogue plan or they're using very different tactics. We just don't know." The government of Iran vehemently denied the accusations and Iran's United Nations representative called the confession "suspicious claims by an individual," and said his claims were fabricated. While the U.S. Department of Justice said Shakuri was still at large, Iran claimed Shakuri belonged to an Iranian exile opposition group aiming to overthrow the Iranian Government.
Skepticism
At the same time, a number of prominent Iran experts have questioned the Iranian government's link to the plot. Suzanne Maloney, senior fellow at The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, said much of what was known of the plot did "not fit the usual patterns of Iran's involvement with terrorist activities. It seems quite credible to me that it could be rogue elements, but I don't know to what degree the Iranian military tolerates such dissent." Alireza Nader, an Iran analyst at the Rand Corporation, found it "difficult" to believe that Khamenei or Suleimani would order such an attack that "would put all of Iran's objectives and strategies at risk". If an Iranian agent was responsible for planning the assassination attempt, it parallels event in 1998, when the murder of prominent Iranian nationalists and writers was organised by three rogue Iranian secret service operatives, part of the Quds ForcesKenneth Katzman, a Middle East analyst at the Congressional Research Service, said, "There is simply no precedent – or even reasonable rationale – for Iran working any plot, no matter where located, through a non-Muslim proxy such as Mexican drug gangs.... The Iranian modus operandi is only to trust sensitive plots to their own employees, or to trusted proxies such as Hezbollah, Saudi Hezbollah, Hamas, the Sadr faction in Iraq, Iran-friendly extremist Muslims in Afghanistan and other pro-Iranian Muslim groups." However, US officials argued that Iran may have needed to use "a far riskier proxy" because "it has far fewer agents in the United States". In 2013, Dexter Filkins described the attack as one of at least thirty directed by Iran's Quds force "in places as far flung as Thailand, New Delhi, Lagos, and Nairobi". Filkins noted that "The Quds Force appears to be more effective close to home, and a number of the remote plans have gone awry."