2002–03 South Pacific cyclone season
The 2002–03 South Pacific cyclone season was the most active and longest tropical cyclone season since 1997–98, with ten tropical cyclones occurring within the South Pacific basin between 160°E and 120°W. The season started earlier than normal, with two systems developing before the official start of the season on November 1, 2002, while the final system dissipated on June 9, 2003, after the season had officially ended on April 30. During the season, tropical cyclones were officially monitored by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre in Nadi, Fiji and the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres in Brisbane, Australia and Wellington, New Zealand. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, also monitored the basin and issued unofficial warnings for American interests. RSMC Nadi attaches a number and an F suffix to tropical disturbances that occur within the basin, while the JTWC designates significant tropical cyclones with a number and a P suffix. RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington and TCWC Brisbane all use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds over a ten-minute period, while the JTWC estimates sustained winds over a one-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale.
The season began with Tropical Depression 17F on July 3, several months prior to the official start of the season. In late December, the strongest cyclone of the season, Cyclone Zoe severely affected many islands in the South Pacific, particularly the island of Tikopia. Zoe remained the strongest cyclone recorded in the Southern Hemisphere until Winston surpassed. Shortly after, in mid-January, Cyclone Ami struck Fiji as a Category 3 cyclone, where it caused US$51.2 million in damage. Cyclone Erica caused considerable damage to New Caledonia as a Category 4 cyclone, causing numerous power outages. The final storm of the season, Cyclone Gina, formed well outside the bounds of the conventional tropical cyclone season, existing entirely in the month of June and causing some damage to Tikopia. As a result of tropical cyclones in the 2002–03 season, US$67.2 million in damages was caused, along with 20 fatalities.
Seasonal forecasts
During November 2002, New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research predicted that there would be an eastwards shift in activity during the season, with more tropical cyclones than normal expected to the east of the date line, due to well established weak to moderate El Niño conditions. As a result, the island nations of Wallis and Futuna, Niue, Samoa, Tokelau, and the Southern Cook Islands were predicted to experience a higher than average number of tropical cyclones. The Solomon Islands, Fiji, Tuvalu, Tonga, French Polynesia, New Zealand and the Northern Cook Islands were predicted to experience an average number of tropical cyclones, while Southern Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and New Caledonia were predicted to experience a reduced number of tropical cyclones. In January 2003, NIWA issued an updated outlook, listing the Northern Cook Islands and French Polynesia as areas predicted to experience an above average number of tropical cyclones. In contrast, Vanuatu was predicted to experience below average cyclone activity. The Solomon Islands and Tonga were now predicted to experience a reduced number of tropical cyclones, with all other countries expected to face the same risk as the November outlook.Seasonal summary
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After three seasons of below average cyclone activity, the 2002–03 season was slightly above average, featuring ten cyclones and seven severe tropical cyclones. One of the cyclones, Cyclone Erica, originated from the Australian region but later moved into the South Pacific, where it impacted New Caledonia. Throughout the season, a moderately warm El Niño–Southern Oscillation generated a shift of cyclone activity away from Australia and towards the open waters of the southern Pacific. As a result, the Southern Oscillation Index between November 2002 and June 2003 was negative, averaging -7.2. Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific were above average; for most of the tropical regions, SSTs were above 29 °C. At various times, Madden–Julian oscillation pulses increased convective activity and thus cyclone development in the basin. Five pulses of the MJO and Equatorial Rossby waves were responsible for most of the cyclone activity during the season. Cyclone Zoe, the strongest cyclone of the season, was the only cyclone with no connection to any identified MJO or ER wave. By April, an easterly trade wind anomaly took place, signifying the end of the El Niño pattern that had persisted for much of the year.
Over the course of the season, cyclones were active for a total of 40 days, and severe tropical cyclones were active for a total of 19 days, both above average. A total of five tropical disturbances formed during 2002, of which two were cyclones. The first disturbance of the season, Tropical Depression 17F, along with another depression, 01F, formed well before the start of the cyclone season on July 3 and October 21 respectively. Cyclone Yolande was the first cyclone of the season, forming on November 29, but did not impact any land masses. In December, two disturbances formed, Tropical Depression 03F and Cyclone Zoe. The latter was the season's strongest cyclone and the strongest cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, affecting areas of the Solomon Islands.
In the first half of 2003, thirteen disturbances formed, of which eight developed into tropical cyclones; six intensified further and became severe tropical cyclones. January 2003 featured four disturbances and three cyclones. Cyclones Ami and Beni were both severe tropical cyclones, with the first extensively impacting Fiji. The month of February was less active compared to January; only two disturbances formed, Cyclone Dovi and Tropical Disturbance 10F, although Dovi would become a Category 5 cyclone on the Australian cyclone scale. March was slightly more active than February; the month featured three tropical depressions and two severe tropical cyclones, Cyclone Erica and Cyclone Eseta, although Erica originally formed west of 160°E. After an easterly wind anomaly arose in April, cyclone activity was suppressed during the month, totalling three tropical disturbances and one cyclone. In June, Cyclone Gina formed as a result of a strong ER wave and later became a severe tropical cyclone, well after the end of the season. Its dissipation on June 9 marked the end of the cyclone season.