Climate change in Tanzania
Climate change in Tanzania is affecting the natural environment and residents of Tanzania. Temperatures in Tanzania are rising with a higher likelihood of intense rainfall events and of dry spells.
Water scarcity has become an increasing problem and many major water bodies have had extreme drops in water levels, including Lake Victoria, Lake Tanganyika, Lake Jipe, and Lake Rukwa. Tanzania's agricultural sector, which employs over half of the population, is particularly vulnerable as farmers are predominantly dependent on rainfed agriculture. On the other hand, increasing intense rainfall events have resulted in flooding across the region, which has damaged infrastructure and livelihoods. A high percentage of the population of Tanzania lives along the coast and are dependent on fisheries and Aquaculture Sea level rise and changes in the quality of water are expected to impact these sectors and be a continued challenge for the country.
Tanzania produced a National Adaptation Programmes of Action in 2007 as mandated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The NAPA identifies the sectors of agriculture, water, health, and energy as Tanzania's most vulnerable sectors to climate change. In 2012, Tanzania produced a National Climate Change Strategy in response to the growing concern of the negative impact of climate change and climate variability on the country's social, economic and physical environment. In 2015, Tanzania submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions.
Impacts on the natural environment
Between 1981 and 2016 there are marked areas of drying in parts of northeast and much of southern Tanzania. In contrast, moderate wetting trends occurred in central Tanzania and stronger wetting trends in the northwest of the country. A clear warming trend is apparent in annual temperature. By 2050s, Tanzania's average annual temperatures could rise 1 to 3 °C above baseline. By the 2090s projected warming is in the range of 1.6 to 5.0 °C, also evenly distributed across the country. For rainfall there is strong agreement for decreases in the mean number of rain days and increases in the amount of rainfall on each rainy day. Taken together these changes suggest more variable rainfall, with both higher likelihood of dry spells and a higher likelihood of intense rainfall events. Climate change impacts of severe droughts, floods, livestock deaths, crop failures and outbreak of disease are likely to be regularly observed.Impacts on people
Economic impacts
Agriculture
Agriculture is the dominant sector in the Tanzanian economy, providing livelihood, income and employment. It is also identified as the sector most vulnerable to climate change. An increase in temperature by 2 °C - 4 °C is likely to alter the distribution of Tanzania's seven agro-ecological zones. Areas that used to grow perennial crops would be suitable for annual crops. Climate change would tend to accelerate plant growth and reduce the length of growing seasons. Vulnerability in the agricultural sector is likely to include decreased crop production of different crops exacerbated by climatic variability and unpredictability of seasonality, erosion of natural resource base and environmental degradation.A 2011 study found that crop yields are both affected by heating and increased variability. An increase in temperature by 2 °C during the growing season as projected by 2050 will likely reduce yields of rice, sorghum and maize by 7.6%, 8.8% and 13% respectively in Tanzania. A 20% increase in precipitation variability between seasons was found to decrease yields of rice, sorghum and maize by 7.6%, 7.2% and 4.2% respectively by 2050. For example, a severe drought in Dodoma resulted in an 80% decrease in harvest.
Health impacts
There are a number of climate-sensitive diseases in Tanzania that may become more prevalent during drought and flooding. Water related diseases such as cholera and malaria may increase in Tanzania due to climate change.In parts of Tanzania, cholera outbreaks have been linked with increased rainfall. Cholera outbreaks in North East, South East, Lake Victoria basin and coastal areas of Tanzania were due to high rainfall. Research has also shown that initial risk of cholera increased by 15% to 19% for every 1 °C temperature increase. It was further projected that in 2030 the total costs of cholera attributable to climate change variability will be in the range of 0.32% to 1.4% of national GDP for Tanzania.
The incidence of malaria are known to be highest during heavy rainfall and high temperatures as it makes mosquitoes' habitats suitable breeding sites. For example, a study conducted in Lushoto district, Tanzania, reported that malaria cases were prominent during high rainfall seasons and there was a link to an increase in temperatures.
Climate finance in Tanzania
Tanzania ratified the Paris Agreement in 2018, thereby affirming its dedication to global initiatives aimed at combating climate change. Through the implementation of its Nationally Determined Contributions, the country seeks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance its resilience to climate-related risks. Climate finance is a critical component in facilitating the realization of these objectives. In Tanzania, a developing nation with a largely agrarian economy, the impacts of climate change have become increasingly pronounced. The country faces rising temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events, all of which threaten livelihoods, food security, and economic stability.In 2012, Tanzania produced a National Climate Change Strategy in response to the growing concern of the negative impacts of climate change and climate variability on the country's social, economic and physical environment. In 2015, Tanzania submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions.
Key climate finance projects in Tanzania
Sustainable land management and climate-resilient agriculture: Tanzania has implemented several projects aimed at promoting climate-resilient agricultural practices. These initiatives are designed to enhance food security, improve water management, and reduce the vulnerability of farmers to climate change impacts. Climate finance from the GCF and the World Bank has been instrumental in supporting these efforts.Renewable energy development: The expansion of renewable energy in Tanzania is a key priority to meet the country's growing energy needs while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Climate finance has facilitated the development of solar, wind, and mini-hydropower projects that provide clean and affordable energy, particularly to rural areas.
Forest conservation and REDD+: Tanzania is one of the pioneering countries in the implementation of REDD+, a global initiative aimed at reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. Through REDD+ projects, Tanzania has received financial resources for forest conservation, sustainable forest management, and community-based initiatives that provide alternative livelihoods for people living in forested areas
Policies and legislation for adaptation
Tanzania produced a National Adaptation Programmes of Action in 2007 as mandated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The overall vision of Tanzania's NAPA is to identify immediate and urgent climate change adaptation actions that are robust enough to lead to long-term sustainable development in a changing climate. The NAPA identifies the sectors of agriculture, water, health, and energy as Tanzania's most vulnerable sectors to climate change. Dissemination and expansion of low-cost, readily available technology such as fuel wood-burning stoves, as well as continued investment in alternative energy sources such as wind and solar.Tanzania has outlined priority adaptation measures in their NAPA, and various national sector strategies and research outputs. The NAPA has been successful at encouraging climate change mainstreaming into sector policies in Tanzania; however, the cross-sectoral collaboration crucial to implementing adaptation strategies remains limited due to institutional challenges such as power imbalances, budget constraints and an ingrained sectoral approach. Most of the projects in Tanzania concern agriculture and water resource management ; however, energy and tourism also play an important role.''''''