Drought
A drought is a period of drier-than-normal conditions. A drought can last for days, months or years. Drought often has large impacts on the ecosystems and agriculture of affected regions, and causes harm to the local economy. Annual dry seasons in the tropics significantly increase the chances of a drought developing, with subsequent increased wildfire risks. Heat waves can significantly worsen drought conditions by increasing evapotranspiration. This dries out forests and other vegetation, and increases the amount of fuel for wildfires.
Drought is a recurring feature of the climate in most parts of the world, becoming more extreme and less predictable due to climate change, which dendrochronological studies date back to 1900. There are three kinds of drought effects, environmental, economic and social. Environmental effects include the drying of wetlands, more and larger wildfires, loss of biodiversity.
Economic impacts of drought result due to negative disruptions to agriculture and livestock farming, forestry, public water supplies, river navigation, electric power supply and impacts on human health.
Social and health costs include the negative effect on the health of people directly exposed to this phenomenon, high food costs, stress caused by failed harvests, water scarcity, etc. Drought can also lead to increased air pollution due to increased dust concentrations and wildfires. Prolonged droughts have caused mass migrations and humanitarian crisis.
Examples for regions with increased drought risks are the Amazon basin, Australia, the Sahel region and India. For example, in 2005, parts of the Amazon basin experienced the worst drought in 100 years. Australia could experience more severe droughts and they could become more frequent in the future, a government-commissioned report said on July 6, 2008. The long Australian Millennial drought broke in 2010. The 2020–2022 Horn of Africa drought surpassed the severe drought in 2010–2011 in both duration and severity.
Throughout history, humans have usually viewed droughts as disasters due to the impact on food availability and the rest of society. People have viewed drought as a natural disaster or as something influenced by human activity, or as a result of supernatural forces.
Definition
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report defines a drought simply as "drier than normal conditions". This means that a drought is "a moisture deficit relative to the average water availability at a given location and season".According to National Integrated Drought Information System, a multi-agency partnership, drought is generally defined as "a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time, resulting in a water shortage". The National Weather Service office of the NOAA defines drought as "a deficiency of moisture that results in adverse impacts on people, animals, or vegetation over a sizeable area".
Drought is a complex phenomenon − relating to the absence of water − which is difficult to monitor and define. By the early 1980s, over 150 definitions of "drought" had already been published. The range of definitions reflects differences in regions, needs, and disciplinary approaches.
Categories
There are three major categories of drought based on where in the water cycle the moisture deficit occurs: meteorological drought, hydrological drought, and agricultural or ecological drought. A meteorological drought occurs due to lack of precipitation. A hydrological drought is related to low runoff, streamflow, and reservoir and groundwater storage. An agricultural or ecological drought is causing plant stress from a combination of evaporation and low soil moisture. Some organizations add another category: socioeconomic drought occurs when the demand for an economic good exceeds supply as a result of a weather-related shortfall in water supply. The socioeconomic drought is a similar concept to water scarcity.The different categories of droughts have different causes but similar effects:
- Meteorological drought occurs when there is a prolonged time with less than average precipitation. Meteorological drought usually precedes the other kinds of drought. As a drought persists, the conditions surrounding it gradually worsen and its impact on the local population gradually increases.
- Hydrological drought happens when water reserves available in sources such as aquifers, lakes and reservoirs fall below average or a locally significant threshold. Hydrological drought tends to present more slowly because it involves stored water that is used but not replenished. Due to the close interaction with water use, this type of drought is can be heavily influenced by water management. Both positive and negative human influences have been discovered and strategic water management strategies seem key to mitigate drought impact. Like agricultural droughts, hydrological droughts can be triggered by more than just a loss of rainfall. For instance, around 2007 Kazakhstan was awarded a large amount of money by the World Bank to restore water that had been diverted to other nations from the Aral Sea under Soviet rule. Similar circumstances also place their largest lake, Balkhash, at risk of completely drying out.
- Agricultural or ecological droughts affect crop production or ecosystems in general. This condition can also arise independently from any change in precipitation levels when either increased irrigation or soil conditions and erosion triggered by poorly planned agricultural endeavors cause a shortfall in water available to the crops.
Indices and monitoring
- Palmer drought index : a regional drought index commonly used for monitoring drought events and studying areal extent and severity of drought episodes. The index uses precipitation and temperature data to study moisture supply and demand using a simple water balance model.
- Keetch-Byram Drought Index: an index that is calculated based on rainfall, air temperature, and other meteorological factors.
- Standardized precipitation index : It is computed based on precipitation, which makes it a simple and easy-to-apply indicator for monitoring and prediction of droughts in different parts of the world. The World Meteorological Organization recommends this index for identifying and monitoring meteorological droughts in different climates and time periods.
- Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index : a multiscalar drought index based on climatic data. The SPEI accounts also for the role of the increased atmospheric evaporative demand on drought severity. Evaporative demand is particularly dominant during periods of precipitation deficit. The SPEI calculation requires long-term and high-quality precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand datasets. These can be obtained from ground stations or gridded data based on reanalysis as well as satellite and multi-source datasets.
- Indices related to vegetation: root-zone soil moisture, vegetation condition index and vegetation health index. The VCI and VHI are computed based on vegetation indices such as the normalized difference vegetation index and temperature datasets.
- Deciles index
- Standardized runoff index
The application of multiple indices using different datasets helps to better manage and monitor droughts than using a single dataset, This is particularly the case in regions of the world where not enough data is available such as Africa and South America. Using a single dataset can be limiting, as it may not capture the full spectrum of drought characteristics and impacts.
Careful monitoring of moisture levels can also help predict increased risk for wildfires.
Causes
General precipitation deficiency
Mechanisms of producing precipitation include convective, stratiform, and orographic rainfall. Convective processes involve strong vertical motions that can cause the overturning of the atmosphere in that location within an hour and cause heavy precipitation, while stratiform processes involve weaker upward motions and less intense precipitation over a longer duration.Precipitation can be divided into three categories, based on whether it falls as liquid water, liquid water that freezes on contact with the surface, or ice.
Droughts occur mainly in areas where normal levels of rainfall are, in themselves, low. If these factors do not support precipitation volumes sufficiently to reach the surface over a sufficient time, the result is a drought. Drought can be triggered by a high level of reflected sunlight and above average prevalence of high pressure systems, winds carrying continental, rather than oceanic air masses, and ridges of high pressure areas aloft can prevent or restrict the developing of thunderstorm activity or rainfall over one certain region. Once a region is within drought, feedback mechanisms such as local arid air, hot conditions which can promote warm core ridging, and minimal evapotranspiration can worsen drought conditions.