Bellwether (politics)


A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the smaller region might predict the eventual result in the larger region.

Overview

In politics, a bellwether can apply in a metaphorical sense to a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In a Westminster-style election, for example, a constituency, the control of which tends frequently to change, can have a popular vote that mirrors the result on a national scale.
An electoral bellwether can be a ward, precinct, town, county, or other district that accurately reflects how a geographic region will vote during elections. Bellwethers change over time and sometimes can only be accurately identified in retrospect, with election cycles with major shifts sometimes called "realignments" that shake up the status of which areas are bellwethers. Bellwethers can also differ by the type of elections: a bellwether in a general election can differ from a party primary bellwether.

Specific countries

Australia

In Australian federal elections, the Division of Robertson in New South Wales became the nation's new longest-running bellwether seat, continuously won by the party that also won government since the 1983 federal election.
Previously, the electoral division of Eden-Monaro elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election from 1972 until 2016, when the record was broken after Labor won the seat, while the Coalition won government. The Division of Lindsay in NSW, has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since its creation in 1984 until 2016. Both Lindsay and Eden-Monaro lost their bellwether status at the 2016 federal election, both electing Labor MPs, despite a narrow Coalition win nationwide.
The Division of Makin in South Australia was a bellwether division from 1984 to 2010, although ceased its bellwether record in 2013, when Makin stayed Labor as the Coalition regained power nationwide. Also, in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Robertson and Makin have bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the 1998 federal election. In purely statistical terms, the state of New South Wales, which has the largest population of any Australian state or territory, could also be considered a "bellwether", as, until the 2016 federal election the party which wins government has won the majority of House of Representatives seats in that state at every election since 1963. Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect the median of Australia.

List of electorates described as bellwethers

Below are seats that have been classified as bellwether seats won by the party forming government at least once at one of the past 10 elections. Below the winning party is the two-party-preferred vote.

Canada

In the Canadian province of Ontario, Sarnia—Lambton voted for the winning party in every federal election from 1963 until 2011. This streak was broken in 2015, when the Conservative Party held the district while the Liberal Party won government, and the riding has become reliably Conservative since. Toronto—St. Paul's has only elected three opposition MPs since it contested its first election, as St. Paul's, in 1935, although it has become reliably Liberal in recent years. Burlington and St. Catharines currently share the longest active streak, having elected an MP from the winning party since 1984. Also in Ontario, Peterborough—Kawartha has consistently elected the party which has won the provincial election since 1977. In federal politics, the coterminous federal electoral district Peterborough—Kawartha elected a member of the winning party from 1965 to 1979 and 1984 until 2021, inclusive.
In Alberta, the provincial electoral district Peace River has elected only three opposition MLAs since the province was founded in 1905.
In Manitoba, the federal district of Winnipeg South has voted for the winning party in each election since it was re-formed in 1988; a previous version of the same riding, which elected MPs from 1917 until 1974 inclusive, voted against the national winner only three times, most recently in 1965. Also in Manitoba, the provincial riding of Rossmere, which has existed since 1969, has voted for the candidate from the governing party in every general election since it was first contested except for that of 1977; it also elected opposition MLAs at by-elections in 1979 and 1993.

Germany

Since the creation of the Federal Republic of Germany in 1949, the state where the leading party list vote matched the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor the most times is Schleswig-Holstein, followed by the state of Lower Saxony. Both states lie in the North of the country, neither containing many large industrial cities, nor large rural Catholic populations, the traditional base of the SPD and CDU/CSU respectively. Schleswig-Holstein is also famous for having had several state elections result in a one-seat majority for the winning coalition and Lower Saxony's 1998 election is often seen as a "trial run" for the subsequent federal election.
Of the first vote constituencies, the constituency of Pinneberg has voted for the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor in all elections except for 1949.
Both the 1949 and the 1969 elections were rather narrow, the former resulting in a one-vote majority in the election for chancellor and the latter resulting in a 12-seat majority that had broken down due to defections by 1972. In 2005 SPD and CDU/CSU were only separated by one percentage point and four seats in the final tally. In the 2021 German federal election the SPD placed first in 12 out of 16 states, including Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony as well as federally while being led by former First Mayor of Hamburg, Olaf Scholz, the State of Hamburg borders both Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein, but Scholz did not run in Hamburg during that election, instead representing the District Potsdam – Potsdam-Mittelmark II – Teltow-Fläming II in Brandenburg.

India

Two individual seats, Valsad and West Delhi, have successfully voted for the victorious party for the last eleven general elections in India. Furthermore, the party that wins the majority of seats in Delhi has always gone on to form the national government since 1998.
The state of Uttar Pradesh is also seen as a bellwether, with the national government having been formed the majority of times by the party that won the most seats in the state.

Indonesia

For the past five elections, there have been 12 provinces where, if a presidential candidate wins them, it is guaranteed that they win the general election. Those 12 provinces are Bangka Belitung Islands, Central Java, North Sumatra, Central Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, East Java, Yogyakarta, Lampung, Papua, Riau Islands, Jakarta, and Central Sulawesi.

Ireland

Ireland has a proportional representation electoral system, in which politicians are elected by the single transferable vote. Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Between the 1981 general election and 2011 general election, Meath and its successors, Meath East and Meath West, have elected a majority of Fianna Fáil TDs in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority of Fine Gael and Labour TDs when those parties formed the government.

New Zealand

In New Zealand, there are three generally accepted bellwether electorates: Hamilton East and Hamilton West, both based around the city of Hamilton, and Northcote on Auckland's North Shore. Hamilton West and Northcote missed one election each since they were first contested in 1969 and 1996 respectively — the for Hamilton West and the for Northcote. Hamilton East, first contested in 1972, has missed three elections — 1993, 1999, and 2005. They were all held by the National Party in the 2017 election although Labour formed the government after the election. Since the National Party was still returned as the largest party in Parliament, however, the two electorates did in fact retain their bellwether status, albeit to a limited extent.

Philippines

In the Philippines, the winner of the Philippine presidential election has won in Negros Oriental in all instances since 1935 except for 1961 and 2016, and in Basilan since its creation in December 1973. After Negros Oriental voted for the runner-up in 2016, Agusan del Norte and Lanao del Sur then had the longest active streak, having its provincial winners be the elected president since the 1969 election. Lanao del Sur then voted for the loser in 2022, giving Agusan del Norte the longest streak.
For vice presidential elections, Pangasinan has voted for the winner in all elections save for 1986 and 2016.

Portugal

In every general election to the Portuguese National Assembly since the restoration of democracy in 1975, the electoral district of Braga has voted for the party or coalition that has won the most seats in the election.
In every general, European Union, mayoral, or presidential elections since the Carnation Revolution, the Portuguese capital of Lisbon voted for the party or coalition that won the highest percentage in the elections.

Romania

Presidential elections
The counties that voted in the first round for the winning candidate:
  • Bucharest - 1 miss, from 1990 on. The highest rate. The longest continuous streak.
  • Constanța - 1 miss, from 1990 on. The highest rate. The longest continuous streak.
  • Alba - 2 misses, from 1990 on. The longest continuous streak, still active.
  • Arad - 2 misses, from 1990 on. The longest continuous streak, still active.
  • Bihor - 2 misses, from 1990 on. The longest continuous streak, still active.
  • Brașov - 2 misses, from 1990 on. The longest continuous streak, still active.
  • Cluj - 2 misses, from 1990 on. The longest continuous streak, still active.
  • Sibiu - 2 misses, from 1990 on. The longest continuous streak, still active.
  • Timiș - 2 misses, from 1990 on. The longest continuous streak, still active.
  • Prahova - 2 misses, from 1990 on.
  • Ilfov - 2 misses, from 1990 on.
  • Bistrița-Năsăud - 3 misses, from 1990 on.
  • Satu Mare - 3 misses, from 1990 on.
  • Sălaj - 3 misses, from 1990 on.
  • Maramureș - 3 misses, from 1990 on.
  • Suceava - 3 misses, from 1990 on.
  • Caraș-Severin - 3 misses, from 1990 on.