2018 United States Senate election in California


The 2018 United States Senate election in California took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent California, concurrently with 2018 [United States Senate elections|other elections] to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
Under California's non-partisan blanket primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the primary, voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. In the California system, the top two finishers — regardless of party — advance to the general election in November, even if a candidate receives a majority of the votes cast in the primary election. Washington and Louisiana have similar "jungle primary" style processes for U.S. Senate elections, as does Mississippi for U.S. Senate special elections.
The candidate filing deadline was March 8, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 5, 2018.
Democratic incumbent Dianne Feinstein won re-election in 2012 with 63% of the vote, taking the record for the most popular votes in any U.S. Senate election in history, with 7.86 million votes. Feinstein, at the time, was the ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee. She turned 85 years old in 2018, leading some to speculate that she would retire in January 2019, as her long-time colleague Barbara Boxer did in January 2017. However, Feinstein ran for re-election to her fifth full term, winning 44.2% of the vote in the top-two primary; she faced Democratic challenger Kevin de León in the general election, who won 12.1% of the primary vote. For the second time since direct elections to the Senate began after the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment in 1913, no Republican appeared on the general election ballot for the U.S. Senate in California. The highest Republican finisher in the primary won only 8.3 percent of the vote, and the 10 Republicans only won 31.2 percent of the vote among them. Briefly, during the early stages of the primary, Patrick Little, a Neo-Nazi running as a Republican polled at 18% which at the time put him in second place and the likely runoff candidate against Feinstein, however, his campaign collapsed after the media reported on his views.
In the general election, Feinstein defeated de León by an eight-point margin, 54% to 46%. This was Feinstein's closest election since 1994, as well as her last run for elected office, as she died in office in September 2023.

Candidates

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

  • Adrienne Nicole Edwards, Vice Chairwoman on the HDT Community Development Foundation board
  • Pat Harris, attorney
  • Alison Hartson, national director of Wolf PAC
  • David Hildebrand, legislative analyst
  • Herbert G. Peters, retired aerospace engineer and candidate for U.S. Senate in California in 2016
  • Douglas Howard Pierce
  • Gerald Plummer
  • Donnie O. Turner, Air Force veteran

Withdrawn

  • Topher Brennan
  • John Melendez, television writer and radio personality
  • Steve Stokes, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016

Declined

Republican Party

Declared

  • Arun K. Bhumitra, businessman
  • James P. Bradley, businessman
  • Jack Crew, bus driver
  • Erin Cruz, published author
  • Rocky De La Fuente, entrepreneur and perennial candidate
  • Jerry Joseph Laws, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016
  • Patrick Little, neo-Nazi and Holocaust denier
  • Kevin Mottus, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016
  • Mario Nabliba, scientist
  • Tom Palzer, activist, retired city planner and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016
  • Paul Allen Taylor, businessman

Withdrawn

  • Donald R. Adams, businessman
  • Gary Coson
  • John Estrada
  • Timothy Charles Kalemkarian, perennial candidate
  • Ernie Konnyu, former U.S. Representative
  • Caren Lancona, businesswoman
  • Jazmina Saavedra, businesswoman and activist
  • Stephen James Schrader, veteran

Declined

Libertarian Party

Declared

  • Derrick Michael Reid, retired attorney and engineer and candidate for president in 2016

Green Party

Declared

  • Michael V. Ziesing

Peace and Freedom Party

Declared

  • John Thompson Parker

No party preference

Declared

  • Colleen Shea Fernald, perennial candidate
  • Rash Bihari Ghosh
  • Tim Gildersleeve, businessman and researcher
  • Michael Fahmy Girgis
  • Don J. Grundmann, California Constitution Party chairman and perennial candidate
  • Jason M. Hanania
  • David Moore
  • Lee W. Olson
  • Ursula M. Schilling
  • Ling Ling Shi, evangelist

Withdrawn

  • Jerry Leon Carroll
  • Michael Eisen, biologist
  • Charles Junior Hodge
  • Richard Thomas Mead
  • Clifton Roberts

Primary election

Polling

with Timothy Charles Kalemkarian, Caren Lancona, John Melendez, and Stephen Schrader

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kevin
de León
Dianne
Feinstein
Timothy
Charles
Kalemkarian
Caren
Lancona
Patrick
Little
John
Melendez
Stephen
Schrader
Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSAMarch 22–25, 2018517± 5.0%5%31%5%2%5%5%7%42%
SurveyUSAJanuary 7–9, 2018506± 4.4%4%34%6%5%5%2%5%38%

with Tom Steyer

Poll
source		Date
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kevin
de León
Dianne
Feinstein
Timothy
Charles
Kalemkarian
Caren
Lancona
Patrick
Little
Tom
Steyer
Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSAJanuary–9, 2018506± 4.4%3%29%5%5%5%5%46%

with John Cox

Poll
source		Date
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		John
Cox 		Kevin
de León 		Dianne
Feinstein 		Undecided
Sextant Strategies & ResearchSeptember 20171,197± 3.4%32%14%40%14%

with Xavier Becerra, Kevin Faulconer, Brad Sherman, Eric Swalwell, and Ashley Swearingin

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Xavier
Becerra 		Kevin
de León 		Kevin
Faulconer 		Brad
Sherman 		Eric
Swalwell 		Ashley
Swearingin 		Undecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 17–18, 2017882± 3.3%21%4%18%11%5%13%28%

Results

Democratic candidates won a combined total of 4,231,444 votes, Republican candidates 2,216,223 votes, and other candidates 223,053 votes.

General election

Debates

  • , October 17, 2018

Predictions

Because of California's top-two runoff system, the seat was guaranteed to be won/held by a Democrat since the initial primary produced two Democratic candidates.
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportSeptember 28, 2018
Inside ElectionsNovember 14, 2017
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 15, 2017
Daily KosApril 9, 2018
Fox NewsJuly 9, 2018
CNNJuly 12, 2018
RealClearPoliticsJune 27, 2018
FiveThirtyEightOctober 20, 2018

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Dianne
Feinstein 		Kevin
de León 		-OtherUndecided
Change ResearchNovember 2–4, 20181,108–42%32%–––
Research Co.November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%47%28%––25%
SurveyUSANovember 1–2, 2018806± 4.7%50%36%––14%
Probolsky ResearchOctober 25–30, 2018900± 3.3%41%35%––24%
UC BerkeleyOctober 19–25, 20181,339± 4.0%45%36%––19%
YouGovOctober 10–24, 20182,178± 3.1%36%29%19%–16%
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaOctober 12–21, 2018989± 4.2%43%27%23%–8%
Emerson CollegeOctober 17–19, 2018671± 4.1%41%23%––37%
SurveyUSAOctober 12–14, 2018762± 4.9%40%26%––35%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles TimesSeptember 17 – October 14, 2018794 LV± 4.0%44%31%––25%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles TimesSeptember 17 – October 14, 2018980 RV± 4.0%41%30%––29%
1st Tuesday CampaignsOctober 1–3, 20181,038± 3.0%43%30%––27%
Vox Populi PollingSeptember 16–18, 2018500± 4.4%55%45%–––
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaSeptember 9–18, 2018964± 4.8%40%29%23%–8%
IpsosSeptember 5–14, 20181,021± 4.0%44%24%–17%15%
Probolsky Research (R)August 29 – September 2, 2018900± 5.8%37%29%––34%
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaJuly 8–17, 20181,020± 4.3%46%24%20%–9%
SurveyUSAJune 26–27, 2018559± 5.9%46%24%––31%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles TimesJune 6–17, 2018767± 4.0%36%18%––46%
Probolsky Research (R)April 16–18, 2018900± 3.3%38%27%––35%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles TimesOctober 27 – November 6, 20171,296± 4.0%58%31%31%10%–
Sextant Strategies & ResearchSeptember 20171,554–36%17%28%–19%

with Feinstein, de León, and Tom Steyer

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kevin
de León 		Dianne
Feinstein 		Tom
Steyer 		Not
voting		Other
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles TimesOctober 27 – November 6, 2017949± 4.0%24%50%17%31%9%

with Feinstein, de León, and John Cox

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		John
Cox 		Kevin
de León 		Dianne
Feinstein 		Undecided
Sextant Strategies & ResearchSeptember 20171,197± 3.4%30%15%38%17%

Results

The race had an undervote of around 1.3 million votes compared to the gubernatorial election, likely by Republican voters choosing neither candidate. De León won many of the same counties and congressional districts won by Republican gubernatorial nominee John Cox, as many voters may have expressed opposition to the incumbent senator. No county voted for both Feinstein and Cox. Congressional districts 39, 45, and 48 were the only congressional districts that voted for both Feinstein and Cox.

By county

Blue represents counties won by Feinstein. Cyan represents counties won by de León.
CountyFeinstein #Feinstein %de León #de León %Margin #Margin %Total
Alameda318,37758.38226,95041.6291,42716.77545,327
Alpine26748.8128051.19-13-2.38547
Amador5,83541.448,24458.56-2,409-17.1114,079
Butte32,41842.9243,10857.08-10,690-14.1575,526
Calaveras7,03140.4410,35759.56-3,326-19.1317,388
Colusa1,64335.093,03964.91-1,396-29.824,682
Contra Costa222,34958.34158,74841.6663,60116.69381,097
Del Norte2,59037.844,25462.16-1,664-24.316,844
El Dorado33,77246.5438,79153.46-5,019-6.9272,563
Fresno103,49147.68113,55752.32-10,066-4.64217,048
Glenn2,34134.794,38865.21-2,047-30.426,729
Humboldt21,33644.7726,31955.23-4,983-10.4647,655
Imperial13,12143.3517,15056.65-4,029-13.3130,271
Inyo2,34439.893,53260.11-1,188-20.225,876
Kern66,62839.9999,98160.01-33,353-20.02166,609
Kings9,59937.8715,74862.13-6,149-24.2625,347
Lake8,14244.1110,31755.89-2,175-11.7818,459
Lassen2,03029.774,78870.23-2,758-40.456,818
Los Angeles1,565,16757.731,146,04442.27419,12315.462,711,211
Madera13,28441.1119,03258.89-5,748-17.7932,316
Marin80,31965.3242,63834.6837,68130.65122,957
Mariposa2,74941.103,93958.90-1,190-17.796,688
Mendocino15,11349.3215,52950.68-416-1.3630,642
Merced23,65945.8127,98554.19-4,326-8.3851,644
Modoc75128.691,86771.31-1,116-42.632,618
Mono2,00147.672,19752.33-196-4.674,198
Monterey56,32052.6950,56247.315,7585.39106,882
Napa27,90454.5123,29045.494,6149.0151,194
Nevada22,19848.1423,91151.86-1,713-3.7246,109
Orange501,67854.38420,81445.6280,8648.77922,492
Placer66,57846.4676,73353.54-10,155-7.09143,311
Plumas2,81538.874,42861.13-1,613-22.277,243
Riverside269,56749.19278,40950.81-8,842-1.61547,976
Sacramento241,57153.03213,94946.9727,6226.06455,520
San Benito8,60747.889,37152.12-764-4.2517,978
San Bernardino233,10349.97233,36050.03-257-0.06466,463
San Diego526,62852.92468,56447.0858,0645.83995,192
San Francisco226,16764.23125,95435.77100,21328.46352,121
San Joaquin79,08846.1392,35153.87-13,263-7.74171,439
San Luis Obispo53,24249.6354,02750.37-785-0.73107,269
San Mateo168,67962.9899,13637.0269,54325.97267,815
Santa Barbara75,27455.1561,21744.8514,05710.30136,491
Santa Clara339,86659.78228,64240.22111,22419.56568,508
Santa Cruz64,17857.5147,41642.4916,76215.02111,594
Shasta19,39734.8736,22765.13-16,830-30.2655,624
Sierra50638.5180861.49-302-22.981,314
Siskiyou5,77239.268,93060.74-3,158-21.4814,702
Solano70,17452.8962,50647.117,6685.78132,680
Sonoma108,47256.0085,22044.0023,25212.00193,692
Stanislaus58,37542.8977,72457.11-19,349-14.22136,099
Sutter10,50142.5714,16657.43-3,665-14.8624,667
Tehama5,43532.5711,25367.43-5,818-34.8616,688
Trinity1,74638.092,83861.91-1,092-23.824,584
Tulare33,00539.8849,76560.12-16,760-20.2582,770
Tuolumne7,78340.8511,27159.15-3,488-18.3119,054
Ventura137,14151.32130,10148.687,0402.63267,242
Yolo35,07151.8632,55148.142,5203.7367,622
Yuba6,22439.179,66660.83-3,442-21.6615,890
Totals6,019,42254.165,093,94245.84925,4808.3311,113,364

By congressional district

Feinstein won 38 of the 53 congressional districts, with the remaining 15 going to De León, including seven held by Republicans.
DistrictFeinsteinDe LeónRepresentative
40%60%Doug LaMalfa
57%43%Jared Huffman
47%53%John Garamendi
45%55%Tom McClintock
56%44%Mike Thompson
57%43%Doris Matsui
51%49%Ami Bera
46%54%Paul Cook
49%51%Jerry McNerney
43%57%Josh Harder
60%40%Mark DeSaulnier
64%36%Nancy Pelosi
59%41%Barbara Lee
64%36%Jackie Speier
57%43%Eric Swalwell
48%52%Jim Costa
60%40%Ro Khanna
61%39%Anna Eshoo
58%42%Zoe Lofgren
54%46%Jimmy Panetta
43%57%TJ Cox
44%56%Devin Nunes
40%60%Kevin McCarthy
53%47%Salud Carbajal
49.7%50.3%Katie Hill
52%48%Julia Brownley
60%40%Judy Chu
58%42%Adam Schiff
55%45%Tony Cárdenas
62%38%Brad Sherman
51%49%Pete Aguilar
53%47%Grace Napolitano
62%38%Ted Lieu
52%48%Jimmy Gomez
52%48%Norma Torres
48%52%Raul Ruiz
64%36%Karen Bass
54%46%Linda Sánchez
56%44%Gil Cisneros
51%49%Lucille Roybal-Allard
52%48%Mark Takano
48%52%Ken Calvert
62%38%Maxine Waters
57%43%Nanette Barragán
54%46%Katie Porter
53%47%Lou Correa
55%45%Alan Lowenthal
55%45%Harley Rouda
53%47%Mike Levin
48%52%Duncan Hunter
48%52%Juan Vargas
56%44%Scott Peters
55%45%Susan Davis