2025 Virginia gubernatorial election


The 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2025, to elect the next governor of Virginia. The election was concurrent with other elections for Virginia's statewide offices, the [2025 Virginia Virginia House of Delegates|House of Delegates election|House of Delegates], and other various political offices. Incumbent Republican governor Glenn Youngkin was ineligible to run for re-election, as the Constitution of Virginia prohibits its governors from serving consecutive terms.
Neither former Democratic U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger nor Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears received opposition in their respective primaries. In April 2025, Spanberger and Earle-Sears were confirmed as the major party nominees. Spanberger defeated Earle-Sears by roughly 527,000 votes which is the largest raw vote margin in state history. She won by 15.36% — a landslide margin and the largest gubernatorial percentage margin since 2009. Democrats won all three statewide executive offices and a trifecta in Virginia's government for the first time since 2019.
The central issues of the campaign were the economy and affordability, which included the federal layoffs from the Trump administration. Transgender rights and political rhetoric followed behind as secondary issues. President Trump's general unpopularity and perceived performance on the economy, healthcare, immigration, and other issues were viewed as contributing factors for Earle-Sears' loss.
Spanberger was elected the first female governor in the state's history, winning by the largest Democratic gubernatorial margin since 1961. She was sworn in as the 75th governor of Virginia on January 17, 2026.

Background

Since the 2008 presidential election, Virginia has voted Democratic for president, which is due in part to Northern Virginia's growth and Democratic trends. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris won the state by 5.78%. After the 2024 Virginia elections, Democrats maintained control of both U.S. Senate seats and their 6-5 majority in the House of Representatives.
In the 2021 gubernatorial election, Youngkin defeated Terry McAuliffe by two points a year after Joe Biden won the state in 2020 by 10 points. The central issues were the economy and education, which led to Republican flips in all three statewide executive offices and the House of Delegates. In the 2023 Virginia elections, Democrats narrowly flipped the House of Delegates and maintained control of the Virginia Senate due to abortion rights.
In the 2024 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump was re-elected into office, which Democrats hoped would energize their voter base in the off-year elections. Trump's personal popularity and voters' position on the economy were viewed as crucial to the gubernatorial race. In January 2025, President Trump and Elon Musk introduced the Department of Government Efficiency. DOGE laid off thousands of federal workers which were relevant in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, since 140,000 federal workers resided in the state. Since 1977, Virginia elected the party out of presidential power for governor – with the exception of 2013 – which made Democrats the initial favorite.
Due to Virginia's blue lean, the state was viewed as a likely gubernatorial pickup for Democrats as national circumstances were unfavorable for Republicans. The economy became the most prominent issue, while healthcare and education followed behind. The concern on the economy was based on tariffs and federal cuts from the Trump Administration.

Republican primary

On September 4, 2024, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears declared her candidacy for governor. She received criticism from Attorney General Jason Miyares for her announcement ahead of the 2024 presidential election. He was widely viewed as a potential candidate for the Republican nomination. In November 2024, Miyares declined to run for governor and unsuccessfully ran for re-election as attorney general in 2025. After his declination, Earle-Sears was viewed as the presumptive nominee.
On February 27, 2025, Earle-Sears received opposition from former state senator Amanda Chase and former state delegate Dave LaRock. They affiliated themselves more with President Trump and criticized Earle-Sears' previous comments on him. Despite the newfound opposition, Earle-Sears was still viewed the favorite in the primary.
Neither Chase nor LaRock reached the signature deadline before April 5, 2025, to qualify for the primary ballot. LaRock criticized Governor Youngkin's endorsement of Earle-Sears while Chase expressed support for the Republican nominee regardless of who it was.
On April 5th, Earle-Sears became the official Republican nominee for governor.

Candidates

Nominee

Failed to qualify

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jason
Miyares		Winsome
Earle-Sears		Undecided
Cygnal October 27–29, 2024600 ± 4.0%12%48%40%
Cygnal March 13–14, 2024510 ± 4.3%16%44%41%
Differentiators DataFebruary 21–24, 2023500 ± 4.5%17%48%35%

Democratic primary

In 2020, U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger received advice from then-governor Ralph Northam to someday run for governor. On November 13, 2023, she announced her candidacy for governor – she did not run for re-election in the House of Representatives in [2024 United States United States House of Representatives|House of Representatives elections|2024].
In December 2023, mayor of Richmond, Levar Stoney declared his candidacy for governor one month after Spanberger announced her bid. He was considered the underdog in primary polls because of low statewide name recognition. In April 2024 – a year before the filing deadline in April 2025 – Stoney withdrew from the race with private pressure from Democrats to withdraw to clear the primary for Spanberger. He unsuccessfully sought the nomination for lieutenant governor in the Democratic primary.
In December 2024, U.S. Representative Bobby Scott, explored the possibility of running for governor, despite doubt from internal sources over whether he would actually do so. In February 2025, Scott hinted he would not run for governor, and he did not file a candidacy for governor.
On April 3rd, Spanberger became the official Democratic nominee for governor after no other candidates filed for governor.

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Declined

Third parties and independents

Candidates

Withdrawn

  • Donna Charles, former U.S. Air Force officer and federal civil servant ''''

General election

Campaign

Since Spanberger and Earle-Sears were the only candidates to qualify for the ballot, they were confirmed as the major party nominees in April 2025. This was the first gubernatorial election in the state's history in which both major party nominees were women. The election was widely viewed as the main referendum on President Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the 2026 midterms.
In mid-July, Earle-Sears changed campaign managers after trailing Spanberger in fundraising and polling. On August 21, an opponent of Earle-Sears held up a sign outside her speech at an Arlington County School Board meeting stating "Hey Winsome, if trans can't share your bathroom, then Blacks can't share my water fountain", which received widespread attention and was condemned by both Earle-Sears and Spanberger.
The impact of the Department of Government Efficiency and Trump's federal mass layoffs reinforced the economy as the top issue for voters, particularly during the [2025 United States Federal government of the United States|federal government shutdown|October federal government shutdown]. During an interview on September 30 with Meet the Press, Earle-Sears did not answer whether she would ask Trump not to fire any more federal workers.
In October 2025, following messages revealed by the National Review of Jay Jones encouraging political violence towards former Virginia Speaker of the House Todd Gilbert, Spanberger and Ghazala Hashmi called for Jones to apologize and take full responsibility for his messages. Governor Glenn Youngkin called for both of them to call for Jay Jones to step down as a candidate, though neither did. Earle-Sears spent $1 million on ads in the wake of the scandal tying Jones to Spanberger.
Throughout the campaign, Earle-Sears mostly ran campaign attack ads on Spanberger on transgender issues, replicating the attack ads against Kamala Harris for being "for they/them" in the 2024 presidential election, would despite top election issues being the economy, affordability, threats against democracy and the federal workforce.
In October 2025, during a football game at James Madison University, a fan hurled a racist remark at Earle-Sears, telling her to "go back to Haiti." The incident was quickly condemned and the fan was suspended from attending all future sporting events.
The in-person early voting period ran from September 19 to November 1, 2025.

Debates

Spanberger and Earle-Sears met on October 9, 2025, at Norfolk State University for their one televised debate. Topics discussed during the debate included the Virginia car tax, text messages sent by Jay Jones, the federal government shutdown, affordability, energy and data centers, parents' roles in education, policies relating to transgender students in K-12 schools, reproductive rights, and policies related to marijuana. During the debate, Earle-Sears pressed on Spanberger to call for Jones to exit the race and whether she still endorses Jones. When asked on whether she would tell Trump to reopen the government, Earle-Sears accused Spanberger of "politicizing" the 2025 federal mass firings by the Trump administration. Spanberger claimed that Earle-Sears had previously stated that same-sex couples should not be allowed to marry and that firing employees for being gay was acceptable. After both claims, Earle-Sears interrupted Spanberger by adding "that's not discrimination". When asked about these comments in an interview on October 28, she claimed that she had misspoken and that she meant to say that she had not personally discriminated against gay people in that manner.

Polling

Aggregate polls
Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Winsome
Earle-Sears 		Abigail
Spanberger 		OtherUndecided
Quantus Insights November 3, 20251,201 ± 2.7%44%53%1%2%
InsiderAdvantage November 2–3, 2025800 ± 3.5%40%50%5%5%
Research Co.November 2–3, 2025423 ± 4.6%46%54%––
Research Co.November 2–3, 2025450 ± 4.6%43%51%–6%
The Trafalgar Group November 1–2, 20251,057 ± 2.9%43%50%1%6%
Emerson CollegeOctober 30–31, 2025880 ± 3.2%44%55%0%1%
Echelon InsightsOctober 28–31, 2025606 ± 4.7%43%55%–2%
AtlasIntelOctober 25–30, 20251,325 ± 3.0%45%54%0%1%
SoCal Strategies October 28–29, 2025800 –43%53%–4%
State NavigateOctober 26–28, 2025614 ± 4.0%41%54%–5%
InsiderAdvantage /
The Trafalgar Group 		October 27–28, 2025800 ± 3.5%42%46%4%8%
Roanoke CollegeOctober 22–27, 20251,041 ± 4.1%41%51%3%5%
YouGovOctober 17–28, 20251,179 ± 4.0%42%57%2%–
YouGovOctober 17–28, 20251,179 ± 4.0%41%55%0%4%
A2 InsightsOctober 24–26, 2025776 –46%54%–1%
Christopher Newport UniversityOctober 21–23, 2025803 ± 4.1%43%50%–6%
Suffolk UniversityOctober 19–21, 2025500 ± 4.4%43%52%1%4%
Quantus Insights October 19–20, 20251,302 ± 2.8%46%51%1%2%
State NavigateOctober 17–20, 2025694 ± 4.0%42%55%–3%
The Washington Post/Schar SchoolOctober 16–20, 2025927 ± 3.5%42%54%2%2%
The Washington Post/Schar SchoolOctober 16–20, 2025927 ± 3.5%40%53%5%2%
Kaplan Strategies October 16–18, 2025556 ± 4.2%41%51%–7%
co/efficient October 15–17, 2025937 ± 3.2%44%49%1%6%
Clarity Campaign Labs October 14–17, 2025958 ± 3.2%43%53%–4%
The Trafalgar Group /
InsiderAdvantage 		October 13–15, 20251,039 ± 2.9%45%47%1%6%
Virginia Commonwealth UniversityOctober 6–14, 2025842 ± 4.0%42%49%–9%
The Trafalgar Group October 8–10, 20251,034 ± 2.9%45%48%2%6%
Public Policy Polling October 7–8, 2025558 –43%52%–5%
Cygnal October 6–7, 2025600 ± 4.0%45%49%–6%
Christopher Newport UniversitySeptember 29 – October 1, 2025805 ± 3.9%42%52%–6%
The Trafalgar Group September 29 – October 1, 20251,034 ± 2.9%42%47%2%9%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 28–29, 2025725 ± 3.6%42%52%–5%
The Washington Post/Schar SchoolSeptember 25–29, 20251,002 ± 3.4%43%55%1%2%
The Washington Post/Schar SchoolSeptember 25–29, 20251,002 ± 3.4%40%53%4%3%
A2 InsightsSeptember 16–28, 2025771 –45%48%1%6%
co/efficient September 22–23, 20251,024 ± 3.1%43%49%1%7%
OnMessage Inc. September 15–18, 2025800 ± 3.5%45%50%–5%
Christopher Newport UniversitySeptember 8–14, 2025808 ± 3.9%40%52%–8%
Cygnal September 7, 2025– –43%50%–7%
Pulse Decision Science September 3–5, 2025512 ± 4.4%43%48%1%8%
SoCal Strategies August 31 – September 1, 2025700 –41%53%–6%
Virginia Commonwealth UniversityAugust 18–28, 2025764 ± 4.1%40%49%2%11%
co/efficient August 23–26, 20251,025 ± 3.1%43%48%3%7%
Roanoke CollegeAugust 11–15, 2025702 ± 4.3%39%46%1%14%
Wick InsightsJuly 9–11, 20251,000 ± 3.0%40%50%2%8%
American Directions Research Group/AARPJune 25 – July 8, 20251,001 ± 3.1%34%49%8%9%
Virginia Commonwealth UniversityJune 19–July 3, 2025806 ± 4.7%37%49%2%12%
co/efficient June 8–10, 20251,127 ± 3.1%43%46%2%9%
Roanoke CollegeMay 12–19, 2025609 ± 5.3%26%43%3%28%
Pantheon Insight/HarrisXMay 9–13, 20251,000 ± 3.1%48%52%––
Pantheon Insight/HarrisXMay 9–13, 20251,000 ± 3.1%45%48%7%–
Cygnal February 26–28, 2025600 ± 4.0%40%46%–14%
Roanoke CollegeFebruary 17–20, 2025690 ± 4.7%24%39%4%33%
co/efficient January 18–20, 2025867 ± 3.3%40%40%5%15%
Virginia Commonwealth UniversityDecember 18, 2024 – January 15, 2025806 ± 4.7%34%44%5%17%
Christopher Newport UniversityJanuary 6–13, 2025806 ± 3.6%39%44%6%12%
Emerson CollegeJanuary 6–8, 20251,000 ± 3.0%41%42%4%13%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyDecember 15–19, 2024625 ± 4.0%44%47%–9%
Research America Inc.September 3–9, 20241,000 ± 3.1%39%39%10%12%
co/efficient September 7–10, 2023834 ± 3.4%26%27%–47%

Winsome Earle-Sears vs. Bobby Scott

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Winsome
Earle-Sears 		Bobby
Scott 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyDecember 15–19, 2024625 ± 4.0%46%44%10%

Jason Miyares vs. Abigail Spanberger

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jason
Miyares 		Abigail
Spanberger 		Undecided
Research America Inc.September 3–9, 20241,000 ± 3.1%39%40%12%
co/efficient September 7–10, 2023834 ± 3.4%22%26%52%

Results

By county and independent city

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Spanberger won eight of 11 congressional districts, including two held by Republicans.
DistrictEarle-SearsSpanbergerRepresentative
48.6%51.2%Rob Wittman
46.1%53.7%Jen Kiggans
27.9%71.9%Bobby Scott
29.2%70.6%Jennifer McClellan
53.5%46.3%John McGuire
58.2%41.6%Ben Cline
42.2%57.6%Eugene Vindman
19.6%80.1%Don Beyer
68.1%31.7%Morgan Griffith
39.6%60.1%Suhas Subramanyam
26.2%73.5%James Walkinshaw

Aftermath and analysis

The result was a landslide victory for Spanberger who set a record for most votes received by a gubernatorial candidate in Virginia. Spanberger's sizable victory was attributed to concerns over affordability, Earle-Sears' tendency to change staff and failure to find a convincing message, Spanberger's fundraising advantage, a significant decline in turnout in heavily-Republican Southwest Virginia, and outrage in Northern Virginia over the mass layoffs of federal workers as part of President Donald Trump's efforts to downsize the federal government. Additionally, many furloughed federal workers were energized by the ongoing federal government shutdown. Discontentment with the U.S. economy under Trump, which many Virginians blamed on his tariff policies, also played a factor in motivating Spanberger voters. The layoffs boosted Spanberger in Northern Virginia which contributed to her large victory margin.
Northern Virginia backed 88% of her statewide margin where every locality in the region saw her margin increase significantly from McAuliffe's performance in 2021. She could've won statewide without Northern Virginia by three points.
Spanberger did well with college-educated voters, winning voters with college degrees by 27 points. Many college campuses shifted leftward by 18 points on average due to young voters. Virginia Tech shifted 34 points to the left, which was the largest shift of all the college campuses. Spanberger’s strongest independent city was Charlottesville where the University of Virginia is — her alma mater. The evangelical Liberty University in Lynchburg shifted to the left by six points. College-educated voters made up more of the electorate compared to 2021. Spanberger narrowly won non-college educated voters despite Youngkin's 19-point margin with non-college educated voters from 2021.
This is the first time since 1985 that a Democrat carried Spotsylvania County, a notable Republican stronghold, as well as Waynesboro City. Stafford County also flipped for the first time since 1985, though Harris won Stafford in 2024. Nelson County and Caroline County also voted Democratic for the first time since 2013. James City County voted Democratic for the first time since 2005, although it voted Democratic in 2020 and 2024. Spanberger's closest victory was in York County, which voted Democratic for the first time since 1965. Spanberger improved with Latino voters from 2024.