2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election


The 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2023, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Kentucky. Incumbent [Kentucky Kentucky Democratic Party|Democratic Party|Democratic] governor Andy Beshear won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron. This was the only statewide victory in 2023 for Democrats in Kentucky.
This race was one of two Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2023 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020. The other was held in Louisiana, where the incumbent Democratic governor was ineligible to seek re-election, and which Jeff Landry flipped for the Republicans.
This was the first gubernatorial election in the state's history in which both major party candidates had previously held the position of attorney general; Beshear held the position from 2016 to 2019, after which he was succeeded by Cameron.
Beshear's victory has been attributed to his broad popularity among Democrats and independents, as well as approximately half of Republicans in the state. Compared to 2019, Beshear most improved his performance in suburban precincts; he increased his margins by nearly 6 percentage points in suburban areas, compared to 4.5 percentage points in urban and rural precincts.

Background

A socially conservative southern state, Kentucky is considered safely Republican in federal elections, with Republicans holding both of its U.S. Senate seats and all but one of its U.S. House seats. In the 2020 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump carried Kentucky by 26 percentage points. However, the state was much more competitive as recently as the 1990s, when it voted for Bill Clinton twice, and Democrats remain competitive in many local and some state-level elections.
Beshear was first elected in 2019, narrowly defeating incumbent Republican Matt Bevin, who had become widely unpopular for signing a pension reform bill for teachers and opposing a subsequent teachers' strike. In that same year, Cameron was elected attorney general, becoming the first African-American to be elected to that position.
Cameron gained national recognition as attorney general, especially due to his involvement in the Breonna Taylor case in 2020. He spoke at the 2020 Republican National Convention on August 25, 2020. In September 2020, Cameron appeared on a shortlist of potential nominees to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court by President Trump.
On May 16, 2023, Cameron won the Republican nomination with 47.7% of the vote, a 26% margin over the second-place candidate, and Beshear won the Democratic nomination with 91.3% of the vote over two perennial candidates.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Fundraising

Beshear was the only candidate who filed a financial disclosure.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Did not file

  • Anthony Moore, wellwater drilling contractor

Withdrew

Declined

Fundraising

Financial disclosures for major candidates are below:

General election

A viral ad featuring Hadley Duvall, who had been raped and impregnated by her stepfather at age 12, was widely credited by Republican leadership for contributing to Beshear's victory, as Kentucky was one of 12 states that had anti-abortion laws that allowed no exceptions for rape or incest, which was initially supported by Cameron.

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Andy
Beshear 		Daniel
Cameron 		OtherUndecided
Concord Public Opinion PartnersNovember 1–2, 2023470 ± 4.5%48%40%–12%
Data for Progress November 1–2, 2023660 ± 4.0%50%48%–2%
Emerson CollegeOctober 30 – November 2, 20231,000 ± 3.0%47%47%2%4%
co/efficient October 18–19, 20231,845 ± 3.2%47%45%−8%
Garin-Hart-Yang October 14–16, 2023721 ± 3.6%52%44%−4%
Emerson CollegeOctober 1–3, 2023450 ± 4.6%49%33%5%13%
WPA Intelligence September 25–28, 2023500 ± 4.4%48%42%–10%
WPA Intelligence September 5–8, 2023500 ± 4.4%47%40%–12%
Garin-Hart-Yang August 30 – September 1, 2023716 ± 3.6%51%42%–7%
Public Policy Polling August 9–10, 2023737 –49%41%–10%
Public Opinion Strategies July 19–20, 2023500 ± 4.4%49%45%–5%
Garin-Hart-Yang Late July 2023716 ± 3.6%48%45%–7%
Public Opinion Strategies June 22–29, 2023800 ± 3.95%52%42%–0%
Cygnal May 22–23, 2023600 ± 3.9%47%47%–6%
co/efficient May 18–19, 2023987 ± 3.1%45%43%–12%
Mason-DixonJanuary 18–23, 2023625 ± 4.0%49%40%–11%

Andy Beshear vs. Kelly Craft

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Andy
Beshear 		Kelly
Craft 		Undecided
Mason-DixonJanuary 18–23, 2023625 ± 4.0%57%32%11%

Andy Beshear vs. Mike Harmon

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Andy
Beshear 		Mike
Harmon 		Undecided
Mason-DixonJanuary 18–23, 2023625 ± 4.0%53%33%14%

Andy Beshear vs. Ryan Quarles

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Andy
Beshear 		Ryan
Quarles 		Undecided
Mason-DixonJanuary 18–23, 2023625 ± 4.0%52%35%13%

Results

Beshear won re-election by a 5% margin. Key to his victory was his performance in the state's two most populous counties, Jefferson and Fayette, each of which he carried with more than 70% of the vote. Beshear also over-performed in several Republican-leaning suburban counties in Northern Kentucky and the Bluegrass region, and in several historically Democratic rural counties in the Eastern Coalfield which have swung sharply towards the Republican Party in the 21st century. Beshear's gains in the Eastern Coalfield were attributed to his response to flooding in the region in 2022.

By county

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Despite winning the election, Beshear won only two of the state's six congressional districts, including one represented by a Republican.
DistrictBeshearCameronRepresentative
44%56%James Comer
46%54%Brett Guthrie
72%28%Morgan McGarvey
48%52%Thomas Massie
42%58%Hal Rogers
60%40%Andy Barr