2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election


The 2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2019, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Kentucky. The Democratic nominee, Andy Beshear, defeated Republican incumbent governor Matt Bevin. It was the closest gubernatorial election by votes since 1899, and was the closest race of the 2019 gubernatorial election cycle. This was the only statewide victory in 2019 for Democrats in Kentucky.
Beshear won by 0.37 percentage points, receiving 49.20% of the vote to Bevin's 48.83%. Bevin won 97 counties, while Beshear won 23 counties. Beshear also carried only two of the state's six congressional districts, but those districts were the state's two most urbanized, the Louisville-based [Kentucky's Kentucky's 3rd congressional district|3rd congressional district|3rd] and the Lexington-based [Kentucky's Kentucky's 6th congressional district|6th congressional district|6th].
Beshear won with overwhelming support in the major population hubs of Louisville and Lexington and their suburbs, as well as major vote swings in the Republican-leaning Cincinnati suburbs. Beshear was also aided by Bevin's lackluster performance in counties that had previously been swinging heavily towards Republicans, particularly the coal country of Eastern Kentucky, where Beshear won multiple counties that overwhelmingly voted Republican in 2016. Voter turnout was high across the state compared to past Kentucky elections, with a statewide turnout of about 42%. Fayette County saw a 20% increase in voter turnout, and Beshear received over twice as many votes in the county than the 2015 Democratic nominee for governor, Jack Conway. Unusually high turnout was seen as a major factor in Beshear's win.
Beshear's win coincided with Democratic momentum nationwide in elections in 2017, 2018, and 2019, following the election of Donald Trump in 2016. However, Republicans won all other statewide races in Kentucky in 2019, including the attorney general and secretary of state offices which Democrats had held going into the election., this is the last time a Republican governor in any state lost reelection.
Bevin conceded on November 14, after a recanvass took place that day that did not change the vote count. Libertarian John Hicks also qualified for the ballot and received 2% of the vote. Statewide turnout was just over 42%, much higher than for the 2015 gubernatorial election.

Background

Major-party primary elections occurred on May 21, 2019. Incumbent Republican governor Matt Bevin was renominated by the Republican Party. Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear won the Democratic nomination with 37.9% of the vote in a three-way contest, in which due to his father he had the greatest name recognition.
Bevin announced on January 25, 2019, that he would run for a second term, choosing State Senator Ralph Alvarado as his running mate over incumbent lieutenant governor Jenean Hampton. No Republican governor of Kentucky has ever been elected to more than one term, even after the state's constitutional prohibition of governors serving consecutive terms was repealed in 1992. The only Republican before Bevin to run for reelection, Ernie Fletcher, was defeated by Democrat Steve Beshear in 2007. Bevin was the second Republican governor of Kentucky in the last 50 years. Andy Beshear was the first governor of Kentucky to be a direct relative of a former governor.
Beshear had the support of 2020 Senate candidate Amy McGrath, his father and former governor Steve Beshear, former governor Paul Patton, and representative and primary challenger Rocky Adkins, all well-known Democrats in the state. Bevin had the support of President Donald Trump, who remained relatively popular in the state, particularly in rural areas. Trump and US senator Rand Paul held a rally in support of Bevin and Republican Attorney General nominee Daniel Cameron the day before the election. Many considered the decisive factor in this election whether voters would vote based on local issues, as Bevin and his policies were deeply unpopular, or as a referendum on Trump, with whom Bevin closely aligned. The former would be more favorable for Democrats, the latter for Republicans.
Bevin was the least popular governor in the United States, with a 33% approval rating in April 2019.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

  • James Comer, incumbent U.S. representative and candidate for governor of Kentucky in 2015

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Other candidates

Libertarian Convention

The Libertarian Party of Kentucky is currently recognized as a "political organization" under state law, a status that grants the party ballot access, but denies it a state-operated primary. Libertarian candidates were nominated at the party's nominating convention, held in March 2019.
Nominated

Write-in

Declared
  • Amy Husk, medical assistant and trade unionist
  • * Running mate: Samir Hazboun, journalist
  • Blackii Effing Whyte

General election

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Matt
Bevin 		Andy
Beshear 		John
Hicks 		Undecided
NBC News/MaristOctober 30 – November 3, 2019564 ± 5.2%47%47%2%4%
The Trafalgar Group October 29 – November 2, 20191,117 ± 3.0%52%47%1%0%
Targoz Market Research October 13–20, 2019401 ± 4.2%36%55%4%6%
Mason-DixonOctober 10–13, 2019625 ± 4.0%46%46%1%7%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research August 19–22, 2019501 ± 4.4%39%48%6%7%
Clarity Campaign Labs August 12–13, 2019792 ± 3.3%39%48%5%4%
Gravis Marketing June 11–12, 2019741 ± 3.6%48%42%–10%
Lake Research Partners June 4–11, 2019500 ± 4%36%51%––
Mason-DixonDecember 12–15, 2018625 ± 4.0%40%48%–12%

with Rocky Adkins

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Matt
Bevin 		Rocky
Adkins 		Undecided
Mason-DixonDecember 12–15, 2018625 ± 4.0%41%42%17%

with Alison Lundergan Grimes

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Matt
Bevin
Grimes 		Undecided
Mason-DixonDecember 12–15, 2018625 ± 4.0%47%46%7%

with generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Matt
Bevin 		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 6–7, 2019676± 3.8%39%49%11%

Results

By congressional district

Beshear won despite carrying only two of the state's six congressional districts. He defeated Bevin in the 3rd and 6th districts, which encompass Kentucky's two urban centers, Louisville and Lexington, and their close-in suburbs. Bevin won the state's other urbanized district, the Northern Kentucky-based 4th, and he won handily in the more rural and less populated 1st, 2nd, and 5th districts.
DistrictPVIAndy
Beshear		Matt
Bevin		Incumbent
representative
R+2339%59%James Comer
R+1944%54%Brett Guthrie
D+668%31%John Yarmuth
R+1845%52%Thomas Massie
R+3137%61%Hal Rogers
R+956%42%Andy Barr

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

Losing by a margin of less than 0.4 percentage points, Bevin did not immediately concede, and requested a recanvass, or review, of counted votes, which was held on November 14. According to the Kentucky state constitution, the swearing in of a Kentucky governor must be held on the fifth Tuesday following the election. While a recount law does exist in Kentucky, it does not permit recounts for gubernatorial elections. Should a candidate contest the election results, the state legislature would determine the winner after hearing a report from a randomly selected 11-member committee from the House and Senate. This process, which is enforced through the Goebel Election Law, has only been used once, during the 1899 Kentucky gubernatorial election. Kentucky Senate President Robert Stivers and some other Republican members of the Kentucky state legislature expressed skepticism of Bevin's voter fraud claims and on November 7 urged Bevin to concede if the recanvass did not go in his favor. On November 11, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, announced that "all indications are" Beshear would be the next governor. The recanvass did not result in any changes in the vote totals for either Beshear or Bevin, but found an additional vote for write-in candidate Blackii Effing Whyte.
Bevin carried 97 of Kentucky's 120 counties. However, Beshear swamped Bevin in urban areas. Beshear carried the state's two largest counties, Jefferson and Fayette–home to Louisville and Lexington, respectively–with over 60 percent of the vote. He also narrowly carried two of the three counties that make up the traditionally conservative Cincinnati suburbs, Kenton and Campbell.

Recanvassing

Beshear declared victory after the initial vote count, selecting J. Michael Brown to lead his transition team. Bevin refused to concede and requested a recanvassing of the vote, which took place on November 14. A recanvassing is a reprint of the voting receipts from each voting machine and is done to make sure county officials recorded vote totals correctly. It is not a recount, which the Kentucky State Constitution does not permit for gubernatorial races. The recanvass resulted in only one change, an additional vote for Independent candidate Blackii Effing Whyte, and Bevin conceded that day.
With the recanvass producing no change in his vote total, Bevin conceded the race on November 14. Beshear was sworn in as governor on December 10, 2019.