2022 Michigan gubernatorial election


The 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Michigan. Incumbent Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer ran for election to a second term and faced former political commentator Tudor Dixon in the general election. Whitmer defeated Dixon by a margin of nearly 11 percentage points, a wider margin than polls indicated as well as a wider margin than Whitmer's first victory four years prior. Whitmer won independent voters by double-digit margins.
This was the first gubernatorial election in Michigan history in which both major party candidates for governor were women, and the first since 1990 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president.

Process for ballot appearance and fraud allegations

In order to appear on a primary ballot for the August 2 Democratic and Republican primaries, candidates must submit between 15,000 and 30,000 signatures in addition to their filing paperwork. These signatures are submitted to the Board of State Canvassers, a bipartisan and independent board that verifies petition signatures. Within seven days of the filing deadline, citizens and organizations can challenge nomination signatures submitted by candidates. Voters are only allowed to sign one nomination petition.
After the filing deadline, the Board of State Canvassers received nearly 30 challenges to nomination petitions. Among them, the Michigan Democratic Party alleged that several Republican candidates engaged in signature fraud with their petitions. This was followed by a report by the Michigan Bureau of Elections which alleged that 36 paid signature circulators faked signatures and engaged in practices that added fraudulent signatures to other candidate's petitions.
An eight-hour meeting of the Board of State Canvassers reached a deadlock on whether to allow the candidates in question to stay on the ballot. Due to the deadlock, the candidates in question were not allowed to appear on the primary ballot. The rushed pace of the proceedings and the decision were criticized by Common Cause of Michigan, whose policy director suggested that the candidates in question had to plead their cases to the Board of Canvassers days after finding out about the alleged fraud themselves.
Several candidates filed lawsuits appealing the decision. These suits were rejected in the Michigan Court of Appeals. Three candidates appealed to the Michigan Supreme Court, but these appeals were denied.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Republican primary

Fourteen people declared their candidacy for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. At the filing deadline, 10 candidates submitted enough signatures to appear on the ballot, a state record. However, following challenges by the state Democratic party and other organizations, five candidates were deemed ineligible to appear on the ballot due to alleged fraudulent signatures. Several of these candidates, including former Detroit police chief James Craig and Michael Markey, pledged to appeal the decision to the State Supreme Court. Craig also mentioned that, should the appeal fail, he would still plan to run as a write-in candidate for both the primary and the general election. On June 15, 2022, Craig announced he was launching a write-in campaign for the nomination.
On June 9, 2022, candidate Ryan Kelley was arrested by the FBI following numerous tips that he had participated in the January 6 United States Capitol attack. The criminal complaint alleges that Kelley engaged in disorderly conduct on restricted grounds and engaged in acts of violence against a person or property. He agreed in June 2023 to plead guilty on a lesser charge in relation to his participation in the insurrection.
On August 19, 2022, Dixon announced former state representative Shane Hernandez as her running mate. However, shortly after, former gubernatorial candidates Ralph Rebandt and Garrett Soldano both announced that they were exploring the possibility of launching their own campaigns for lieutenant governor to contest Hernandez at the August 27 state GOP convention for not being conservative enough. On August 22, 2022, Soldano announced that he would not seek the position of lieutenant governor at the convention. Later that same day, Rebandt announced that he would seek the nomination at the convention. Hernandez secured his party's nomination at the convention, despite heated opposition from supporters of Rebandt.
On June 22, 2023, charges were filed against three individuals regarding the fraudulent signatures that disqualified five of the candidates in the Republican primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified, write-in campaign

Failed to qualify

  • Donna Brandenburg, businesswoman '
  • Mike Brown, captain in the Michigan State Police '
  • Perry Johnson, businessman
  • Michael Jay Markey Jr., businessman and media personality
  • Bob Scott, jelly maker and Vice President of the Evangelical Alliance Ministerial Association
  • Evan Space, Michigan Army National Guard veteran and candidate for governor in 2018

Withdrawn

  • Articia Bomer, Detroit document specialist
  • Austin Chenge, businessman and U.S. Army veteran

Declined

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Tudor
Dixon		Ryan
Kelley		Kevin
Rinke		Garrett
Soldano		Other
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsJuly 28 – August 1, 2022August 1, 202240.7%11.7%20.3%14.7%12.6%Dixon +20.4

John James vs. James Craig

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		John
James		James
Craig		Undecided
Target InsyghtMay 9–11, 2021304 ± 3.5%36%21%42%

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Nominated

Constitution convention

Candidates

Nominee

General election

Polling

Aggregate polls

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gretchen
Whitmer 		Tudor
Dixon 		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group November 5–7, 20221,097 ± 2.9%48%49%1%2%
Cygnal November 1–4, 20221,603 ± 2.5%50%47%2%1%
Mitchell ResearchNovember 3, 2022658 ± 3.8%50%48%1%2%
Cygnal October 31 – November 2, 20221,754 ± 2.3%51%46%2%2%
EPIC-MRAOctober 28 – November 1, 2022600 ± 4.0%54%43%1%2%
Emerson CollegeOctober 27–31, 20221,584 ± 2.5%50%45%3%3%
Emerson CollegeOctober 27–31, 20221,584 ± 2.5%51%46%3%–
Cygnal October 27–31, 20221,584 ± 2.5%51%45%2%3%
InsiderAdvantage October 30, 2022550 ± 4.2%45%45%5%5%
Wick InsightsOctober 26–30, 20221,137 ± 3.2%49%47%2%2%
KAConsulting October 27–29, 2022501 ± 4.4%48%41%5%7%
Cygnal October 25–29, 20221,543 ± 2.5%51%44%2%3%
The Glengariff Group, Inc.October 26–28, 2022600 ± 4.0%52%43%3%2%
Cygnal October 23–27, 20221,822 ± 2.3%51%44%3%2%
Cygnal October 21–25, 20221,378 ± 2.6%51%45%3%2%
Cygnal October 19–23, 20221,459 ± 2.6%50%44%3%3%
The Trafalgar Group October 18–21, 20221,022 ± 2.9%48%48%2%2%
Cygnal October 17–21, 20221,904 ± 2.3%50%44%3%4%
Mitchell ResearchOctober 19, 2022541 ± 4.2%49%47%1%3%
Cygnal October 15–19, 20221,793 ± 2.3%49%44%3%4%
CNN/SSRSOctober 13–18, 2022901 ± 4.2%55%41%4%1%
CNN/SSRSOctober 13–18, 2022651 ± 4.9%52%46%2%–
Emerson CollegeOctober 12–14, 2022580 ± 4.0%49%44%3%4%
Cygnal October 12–14, 2022640 ± 3.9%49%44%4%4%
Wick Insights October 8–14, 20221,136 ± 3.1%47%48%2%3%
InsiderAdvantage October 12, 2022550 ± 4.2%44%44%6%7%
EPIC-MRAOctober 6–12, 2022600 ± 4.0%49%38%4%9%
YouGov/CBS NewsOctober 3–6, 20221,285 ± 3.6%53%47%––
The Glengariff Group, Inc.September 26–29, 2022600 ± 4.0%50%32%9%9%
The Trafalgar Group September 24–28, 20221,075 ± 2.9%51%45%4%1%
EPIC-MRASeptember 15–19, 2022600 ± 4.0%55%39%–6%
EPIC-MRASeptember 7–13, 2022800 ± 3.5%51%40%7%2%
The Glengariff Group, Inc.August 29 – September 1, 2022600 ± 4.0%48%35%4%13%
The Trafalgar Group August 22–25, 20221,080 ± 2.9%49%45%3%2%
EPIC-MRAAugust 18–23, 2022600 ± 4.0%50%39%–11%
Blueprint Polling August 15–16, 2022611 ± 4.0%51%39%3%8%
Fabrizio Ward /Impact Research August 8–14, 20221,365 ± 4.4%51%46%–3%
The Glengariff Group, Inc.July 5–8, 2022600 ± 4.0%51%40%–9%
Target InsyghtMay 26–27, 2022600 ± 4.0%58%21%–21%
The Glengariff Group, Inc.January 3–7, 2022600 ± 4.0%50%31%–19%
Strategic National September 18–19, 2021600 ± 4.0%46%41%–13%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Ryan Kelley

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gretchen
Whitmer 		Ryan
Kelley 		Undecided
The Glengariff Group, Inc.July 5–8, 2022600 ± 4.0%50%41%9%
Target InsyghtMay 26–27, 2022600 ± 4.0%57%23%19%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Ralph Rebandt

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gretchen
Whitmer 		Ralph
Rebandt 		Undecided
The Glengariff Group, Inc.July 5–8, 2022600 ± 4.0%52%37%10%
Target InsyghtMay 26–27, 2022600 ± 4.0%58%19%23%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Kevin Rinke

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gretchen
Whitmer 		Kevin
Rinke 		Undecided
The Glengariff Group, Inc.July 5–8, 2022600 ± 4.0%52%40%8%
Target InsyghtMay 26–27, 2022600 ± 4.0%58%24%18%
The Glengariff Group, Inc.January 3–7, 2022600 ± 4.0%50%33%17%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Garrett Soldano

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gretchen
Whitmer 		Garrett
Soldano 		Undecided
The Glengariff Group, Inc.July 5–8, 2022600 ± 4.0%52%38%10%
Target InsyghtMay 26–27, 2022600 ± 4.0%58%22%20%
The Glengariff Group, Inc.January 3–7, 2022600 ± 4.0%50%33%17%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. James Craig

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gretchen
Whitmer 		James
Craig 		Undecided
Blueprint Polling February 1–4, 2022632 ± 3.9%44%44%12%
EPIC-MRAJanuary 15–20, 2022600 ± 4.0%46%41%13%
The Glengariff Group, Inc.January 3–7, 2022600 ± 4.0%49%39%12%
ARW Strategies January 4–6, 2022800 ± 3.5%46%46%8%
Strategic National September 18–19, 2021600 ± 4.0%47%46%7%
The Trafalgar Group September 13–15, 20211,097 ± 3.0%44%50%5%
EPIC-MRAAugust 9–15, 2021600 ± 4.0%45%44%11%
Competitive Edge Research & Communication May 26 – June 4, 2021809 ± 4.0%38%45%17%
Target InsyghtMay 9–11, 2021800 ± 3.5%48%42%10%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. John James

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gretchen
Whitmer 		John
James 		Undecided
Competitive Edge Research & Communication May 26 – June 4, 2021809 ± 4.0%50%45%5%
Target InsyghtMay 9–11, 2021800 ± 3.5%49%39%12%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Candice Miller

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gretchen
Whitmer 		Candice
Miller 		OtherUndecided
EPIC-MRAFebruary 19–25, 2021600 ± 4.0%46%45%–9%
Denno ResearchDecember 14–15, 2020600 ± 4.0%46%42%13%–

Gretchen Whitmer vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gretchen
Whitmer 		Generic
Republican		Undecided
EPIC-MRAMay 11–17, 2022600 ± 4.0%45%46%9%
ARW Strategies April 18–20, 2022600 ± 4.0%45%46%8%
Cygnal June 2–6, 2021600 ± 4.0%41%52%7%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. generic opponent

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gretchen
Whitmer 		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
The Glengariff Group, Inc.February 3–6, 2021600 ± 4.0%39%41%20%

Debates

The first debate was held on Thursday, October 13 in Grand Rapids hosted by local TV station WOOD-TV. The two clashed on various issues such as abortion, the economy and COVID-19. Analysts determined this debate to be a draw.
The second debate was held on Tuesday, October 25 on the campus of Oakland University in Rochester. The debate was co-sponsored by Oakland University's Center for Civic Engagement and E.W. Scripps owned TV stations WXYZ-TV in Detroit, WXMI-TV in Grand Rapids and WSYM-TV in Lansing. News stories about the debate specifically noted a question Whitmer gave Dixon when they argued on school safety and library books: "Do you really think books are more dangerous than guns?"

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Whitmer won nine of 13 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.
DistrictWhitmerDixonRepresentative
44%54%Jack Bergman
40%58%John Moolenaar
55%43%Peter Meijer
55%43%Hillary Scholten
50%49%Bill Huizenga
41%57%Tim Walberg
66%32%Debbie Dingell
54%44%Elissa Slotkin
55%43%Dan Kildee
41%57%Lisa McClain
55%43%John James
64%35%Haley Stevens
76%23%Rashida Tlaib
77%22%Shri Thanedar

Analysis

Whitmer led Dixon in most of the polls. Most Republican donors chose not to fund campaign ads for Dixon, causing the TV airwaves to be dominated by ads for Whitmer, which included negative ads against Dixon. Whitmer also spent a lot more in digital advertising compared to Dixon. Abortion rights, which were on the ballot in the same election, were the subject of negative ads against Dixon, who opposed abortion rights. Although aggregate polling had Whitmer up by about 3%, and a last-minute poll by Trafalgar Group had Dixon ahead by 1%, the election was not close. Whitmer defeated Dixon at the same time Michigan voters approved a ballot measure that would guarantee abortion rights in the Michigan constitution. Democrats swept the other statewide partisan races and won control of both the state House and state Senate. This marked the first time Democrats took control of both houses of the Michigan legislature since 1984.
Exit polls found that Whitmer won nearly 70% of college-educated White women and 94% of Black voters.
Despite Dixon's loss, she managed to flip Gogebic County in the Upper Peninsula, making this the first election since 1932 where a Democrat won the Michigan governor's mansion without carrying Gogebic County. Conversely, Whitmer flipped the counties of Benzie and Grand Traverse; the last time the Democratic candidate won these counties were 2006 and 1986, respectively.