2014 Michigan gubernatorial election
The 2014 Michigan gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Michigan, concurrently with the election of Michigan's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
This was one of nine Republican-held governorships up for election in a state that Barack Obama won in the 2012 presidential election. Incumbent Republican Governor Rick Snyder ran for election to a second term in office. Primary elections took place on August 5, 2014, in which Snyder and former U.S. representative Mark Schauer were unopposed in the Republican and Democratic primaries, respectively.
Snyder was considered vulnerable in his bid for a second term, as reflected in his low approval ratings. The consensus among The Cook Political Report, Governing, The Rothenberg Political Report, and Sabato's Crystal Ball was that the contest was a "tossup". Snyder was saddled with a negative approval rating, while his Democratic opponent, former U.S. representative Mark Schauer, suffered from a lack of name recognition. Despite having a more centrist voting record in the House of Representatives, Schauer ran as more of a populist who put education, unions and taxes as his top priorities.
Despite concerns about his approval rating hurting his chances at victory, Snyder was re-elected with 50.9% of the vote. As of, this is the last time a Republican was elected Governor of Michigan, and the last time the Republican candidate won the counties of Kalamazoo, Oakland, Clinton, Macomb, Kent, Leelanau, and Isabella, and the last time the Democratic candidate won the counties of Alger, Baraga, and Manistee. This is also the last time that the winner of the Michigan gubernatorial election won a majority of counties. This was the first time since 1990 that Michigan simultaneously voted for gubernatorial and U.S. Senate candidates of different political parties.
Republican primary
Polling indicated significant opposition from Republican primary voters in Michigan towards Snyder's bid for re-election. This came in the midst of discussions by the Tea Party network regarding whether incumbent lieutenant governor Brian Calley should be replaced as Snyder's running mate. Snyder started running campaign ads in September 2013, immediately following the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference and formally declared that he is seeking re-election in January 2014.In August 2013, Tea Party leader Wes Nakagiri announced that he would challenge Calley for the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor. At the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference, speculation reported by the media also included Todd Courser as a potential challenger to Calley. At the Michigan Republican Party state convention, which took take place on August 23, 2014, incumbent lieutenant governor Brian Calley won renomination.
On January 3, 2014, Mark McFarlin, announced that he would be running for the Republican nomination. He believed that his populist platform was too conservative for the Democratic ticket, and that he could get crossover support in the general election. However, he did not submit his filing petitions in time to qualify for the August primary ballot.
Candidates
Declared
- Rick Snyder, incumbent governor of Michigan
Failed to qualify
- Mark McFarlin, private investigator and Independent write-in candidate for governor in 2002
Declined
- Mike Bishop, former Majority Leader of the Michigan Senate
- Todd Courser, Tea Party activist, candidate for the Michigan Board of Education in 2012 and for chairman of the Michigan Republican Party in 2013
Polling
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Snyder | Dave Agema | Undecided |
| Harper Polling | September 4, 2013 | 958 | ±3.17% | 64% | 16% | 20% |
| iCaucus Michigan | August 26–30, 2013 | 744 | ± 4.08% | 32.39% | 42.34% | 25.27% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Snyder | Mike Bishop | Undecided |
| iCaucus Michigan | August 26–30, 2013 | 744 | ± 4.08% | 36.83% | 24.19% | 38.98% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Snyder | Keith Butler | Undecided |
| iCaucus Michigan | August 26–30, 2013 | 744 | ± 4.08% | 38.98% | 11.29% | 49.73% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Snyder | Betsy DeVos | Undecided |
| iCaucus Michigan | August 26–30, 2013 | 744 | ± 4.08% | 40.59% | 18.41% | 40.99% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Snyder | Gary Glenn | Undecided |
| iCaucus Michigan | August 26–30, 2013 | 744 | ± 4.08% | 39.11% | 30.78% | 30.11% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Snyder | Pete Hoekstra | Undecided |
| iCaucus Michigan | August 26–30, 2013 | 744 | ± 4.08% | 47.04% | 21.77% | 31.18% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Snyder | Bill Schuette | Undecided |
| iCaucus Michigan | August 26–30, 2013 | 744 | ± 4.08% | 31.85% | 38.44% | 29.70% |
Democratic primary
Michigan Democratic Party leadership rallied support behind former U.S. representative Mark Schauer, who ran unopposed in the Democratic Party primary. Party Chairman Lon Johnson encouraged all other potential challengers to stay out of the race so as to avoid a costly and potentially bitter primary campaign. Conservative Democrat and "birther" Mark McFarlin had announced on November 29, 2013, that he was running for the Democratic nomination for governor, but he switched parties on January 3, 2014, leaving Schauer as the only candidate for the Democratic nomination.Candidates
Declared
- Mark Schauer, former U.S. representative
Withdrew
- Mark McFarlin, private investigator and Independent write-in candidate for governor in 2002
Declined
- John C. Austin, president of the Michigan Board of Education
- Vicki Barnett, Minority Whip of the Michigan House of Representatives
- Jocelyn Benson, dean of Wayne State University Law School and nominee for Michigan Secretary of State in 2010
- Virgil Bernero, Mayor of Lansing and nominee for governor in 2010
- Mark Bernstein, attorney and Regent of the University of Michigan
- Mike Duggan, Mayor-elect of Detroit and former Wayne County Prosecutor
- Mark Hackel, Macomb County Executive
- Dan Kildee, U.S. representative
- Gary Peters, U.S. representative
- Bart Stupak, former U.S. representative
- Gretchen Whitmer, Minority Leader of the Michigan Senate
Polling
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Schauer | Bob King | Undecided |
| Mitchell Research | May 28, 2013 | 361 | ± 5.16% | 31% | 38% | 31% |
Minor parties
Candidates
Libertarian Party
- Mary Buzuma, nominee for Michigan's 2nd congressional district in 2012
- : Running mate: Scott Boman, activist, former chairman of the Libertarian Party of Michigan and perennial candidate
Green Party
- Paul Homeniuk
- : Running mate: Candace Caveny, nominee for the state senate in 2006, 2008 and 2010 and nominee for the State Board of Education in 2012
U.S. Taxpayers Party
- Mark McFarlin, Independent write-in candidate for governor in 2002
- : Running mate: Richard Mendoza
Independents
Candidates
Declared
- Robin Sanders, retired from the United States Navy and the Michigan Department of Corrections
General election
Debates
- , October 12, 2014 - C-SPAN
Polling
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Snyder | Virg Bernero | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | March 2–4, 2013 | 702 | ± 3.7% | 38% | 43% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling | December 13–16, 2012 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 38% | 49% | 12% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Snyder | Gary Peters | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | March 2–4, 2013 | 702 | ± 3.7% | 37% | 44% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling | December 13–16, 2012 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 39% | 47% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Snyder | Bart Stupak | Undecided |
| EPIC-MRA | April 13–16, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 39% | 38% | 23% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Snyder | Gretchen Whitmer | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | December 13–16, 2012 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 38% | 46% | 16% |
Results
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Snyder won nine of 14 congressional districts.| District | Snyder | Schauer | Representative |
| 54.0% | 43.28% | Dan Benishek | |
| 62.7% | 34.87% | Bill Huizenga | |
| 60.6% | 37.18% | Justin Amash | |
| 55.1% | 42.05% | John Moolenaar | |
| 39.95% | 57.59% | Dan Kildee | |
| 55.91% | 41.21% | Fred Upton | |
| 54.37% | 43.29% | Tim Walberg | |
| 58.07% | 39.99% | Mike Bishop | |
| 47.19% | 50.68% | Sander Levin | |
| 59.08% | 38.42% | Candice Miller | |
| 62.31% | 36.02% | David Trott | |
| 41.27% | 56.53% | Debbie Dingell | |
| 20.26% | 78.15% | John Conyers Jr. | |
| 27.52% | 71.43% | Brenda Lawrence |