2016 South Carolina Republican presidential primary

The 2016 South Carolina Republican presidential primary took place on February 20 in the U.S. state of South Carolina, marking the Republican Party's third nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
The Democratic Party held its Nevada caucuses on the same day, while their South Carolina primary would only take place a week later on February 27.
The states delegates are allocated in this way: 29 delegates are awarded to the winner of the primary; 3 delegates are awarded to the winner of each of the seven congressional districts.
Donald Trump demonstrated his strength over the other candidates, winning among Southern White Evangelical Christians. Marco Rubio, who had the support of then-Governor Nikki Haley, managed second place due to his support among college graduates.
Following a poor result in the primary, [Jeb Jeb Bush|Bush presidential campaign, 2016|Jeb Bush] announced the suspension of his campaign.

Forums and debates

January 9, 2016 – Columbia, South Carolina
The Kemp Forum was held in the Columbia Metropolitan Convention Center by the Jack Kemp Foundation. Bush, Carson, Christie, Fiorina, Huckabee, Kasich, and Rubio attended. The forum was moderated by Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Senator Tim Scott.
January 14, 2016 – North Charleston, South Carolina

Candidate	Airtime	Polls
Trump	17:12	34.5%
Cruz	17:52	19.3%
Rubio	14:19	11.8%
Carson	8:26	9.0%
Christie	14:25	3.5%
Bush	12:36	4.8%
Kasich	12:26	2.3%

On December 8, 2015, it was announced that Fox Business Network would host an additional debate two days after the State of the Union address. The debate was held in the Charleston Coliseum in North Charleston, South Carolina. The anchor and managing editor of Business News, Neil Cavuto, and anchor and global markets editor, Maria Bartiromo, reprised their roles as moderators for the prime-time debate, which began at 9 p.m. EST. The earlier debate, which started at 6 p.m. EST, was again moderated by anchors Trish Regan and Sandra Smith.
On December 22, 2015, Fox Business Network announced that in order to qualify for the prime-time debate, candidates had to either: place in the top six nationally, based on an average of the five most recent national polls recognized by FOX News; place in the top five in Iowa, based on an average of the five most recent Iowa state polls recognized by FOX News; or place in the top five in New Hampshire, based on an average of the five most recent New Hampshire state polls recognized by FOX News. In order to qualify for the first debate, candidates must have registered at least one percent in one of the five most recent national polls.
On January 11, 2016, seven candidates were revealed to have been invited to the prime-time debate: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump. The participants were introduced in order of their poll rankings at the debate.
Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum participated in the undercard debate. Rand Paul was also invited to the undercard debate, but said, "I won't participate in anything that's not first tier because we have a first tier campaign." The candidates were introduced in order of their poll rankings. The first question was to assess the economy. The next questions asked Fiorina about the role of the US in the world, Santorum about the Iran deal, and Huckabee about the solution to Afghanistan's problems.
February 13, 2016 – Greenville, South Carolina
The ninth debate, and second debate in the month of February, was held in another early primary state of South Carolina, and aired on CBS News. The debate was moderated by John Dickerson in the Peace Center, began at 9 p.m. ET and lasted for 90 minutes.

Polling

Aggregate polls

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	3rd	Other
Primary results	February 20, 2016	Donald Trump32.51%	Marco Rubio22.48%	Ted Cruz22.33%	Jeb Bush 7.84%, John Kasich 7.61%, Ben Carson 7.23%
Opinion Savvy/ Augusta Chronicle Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 780	February 18–19, 2016	Donald Trump 26.9%	Marco Rubio 24.1%	Ted Cruz 18.8%	Jeb Bush 10.6%, Ben Carson 8.2%, John Kasich 7.5%, Undecided 3.9%
South Carolina House GOP Margin of error: ± 2.0% Sample size: 3500	February 18, 2016	Donald Trump 33.51%	Ted Cruz 18.96%	Marco Rubio 18.07%	Jeb Bush 11.56%, John Kasich 8.49%, Ben Carson 5.22%, Undecided 4.19%
National Research Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 500	February 17–18, 2016	Donald Trump 32%	Ted Cruz 19%	Marco Rubio 18%	Jeb Bush 8%, John Kasich 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Refused 2%, Undecided 7%
ARG Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 401	February 17–18, 2016	Donald Trump 34%	Marco Rubio 22%	John Kasich 14%	Ted Cruz 13%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 4%, Other 1%, Undecided 3%
Emerson College Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 418	February 16–18, 2016	Donald Trump 36%	Ted Cruz 19%	Marco Rubio 18%	John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 10%, Ben Carson 6%
Clemson University Margin of error: ± 3.0% Sample size: 650	February 14–18, 2016	Donald Trump 28%	Ted Cruz 19%	Marco Rubio 15%	Jeb Bush 10%, John Kasich 9%, Ben Carson 6%, Undecided 13%
ARG Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400	February 16–17, 2016	Donald Trump 33%	Marco Rubio 20%	John Kasich 15%	Ted Cruz 13%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ben Carson 3%, Other 1%, Undecided 7%
Harper Polling Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 599	February 16–17, 2016	Donald Trump 29%	Ted Cruz 17%	Marco Rubio 15%	Jeb Bush 14%, John Kasich 13%, Ben Carson 8%, Undecided 5%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 722	February 15–17, 2016	Donald Trump 28%	Ted Cruz 23%	Marco Rubio 15%	Jeb Bush 13%, Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 9%, Undecided 5%
Fox News Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 759	February 15–17, 2016	Donald Trump 32%	Ted Cruz 19%	Marco Rubio 15%	Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 6%, Other 1%, Undecided 8%
Emerson College Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 315	February 15–16, 2016	Donald Trump 33%	Ted Cruz 20%	Marco Rubio 19%	John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 5%, Other 1%, Undecided 4%
ARG Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400	February 14–16, 2016	Donald Trump 33%	Marco Rubio 16%	Ted Cruz 14%	John Kasich 14%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 3%, Other 2%, Undecided 8%
Monmouth University Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400	February 14–16, 2016	Donald Trump 35%	Ted Cruz 19%	Marco Rubio 17%	John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ben Carson 7%, Undecided 5%
Bloomberg/Selzer Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 502	February 13–16, 2016	Donald Trump 36%	Ted Cruz 17%	Marco Rubio 15%	Jeb Bush 13%, Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 7%, Undecided 3%
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 3.3% Sample size: 897	February 14–15, 2016	Donald Trump 35%	Ted Cruz 18%	Marco Rubio 18%	John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 7%, Ben Carson 7%, Undecided 6%
South Carolina House GOP Margin of error: ± 2.4% Sample size: 1700	February 15, 2016	Donald Trump 33.57%	Ted Cruz 15.54%	Marco Rubio 14.83%	Jeb Bush 14.54%, John Kasich 7.98%, Ben Carson 6.55%, Undecided 7.03%
CNN/ORC Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 404	February 10–15, 2016	Donald Trump 38%	Ted Cruz 22%	Marco Rubio 14%	Jeb Bush 10%, Ben Carson 6%, John Kasich 4%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Someone Else 1%, Undecided 1%, No Opinion 3%
ARG Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400	February 12–13, 2016	Donald Trump 35%	John Kasich 15%	Marco Rubio 14%	Ted Cruz 12%, Jeb Bush 10%, Ben Carson 2%, Other 2%, Undecided 10%
South Carolina House GOP Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 1200	February 11–12, 2016	Donald Trump 34.5%	Ted Cruz 15.5%	Jeb Bush 13%	Marco Rubio 12.5%, John Kasich 8.5%, Ben Carson 5%, Undecided 11%
CBS News/YouGov Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 744	February 10–12, 2016	Donald Trump 42%	Ted Cruz 20%	Marco Rubio 15%	John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 6%, Ben Carson 6%, Chris Christie 1%, Carly Fiorina 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 1%
Opinion Savvy/ Augusta Chronicle Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 779	February 10–11, 2016	Donald Trump 36.3%	Ted Cruz 19.6%	Marco Rubio 14.6%	Jeb Bush 10.9%, John Kasich 8.7%, Ben Carson 4.7%, Undecided 5.2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 718	January 17–23, 2016	Donald Trump 36%	Ted Cruz 20%	Marco Rubio 14%	Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 8%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Rand Paul 1%, John Kasich 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Other 0%, Undecided 6%
CBS/YouGov Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 804	January 18–21, 2016	Donald Trump 40%	Ted Cruz 21%	Marco Rubio 13%	Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No Preference 0%
Morris News/Opinion Savvy Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 683	January 15, 2016	Donald Trump 32%	Ted Cruz 18%	Jeb Bush 13%	Marco Rubio 11%, Ben Carson 9%, Chris Christie 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Undecided 3%
Associated Industries of Florida Margin of error: ± 3.9% Sample size: 600	December 16–17, 2015	Donald Trump 27%	Ted Cruz 27%	Marco Rubio 12%	Ben Carson 11%, Jeb Bush 7%, Others 5%, Undecided 11%
CBS News/YouGov Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 1469	December 14–17, 2015	Donald Trump 38%	Ted Cruz 23%	Marco Rubio 12%	Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 7%, Rand Paul 4%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 1%
Opinion Savvy/Augusta Chronicle Margin of error: ± 4.2% Sample size: 536	December 16, 2015	Donald Trump 28.3%	Ted Cruz 21.1%	Marco Rubio 11.6%	Jeb Bush 9.6%, Ben Carson 9.5%, Chris Christie 5.5%, Carly Fiorina 4.6%, Rand Paul 2.6%, Mike Huckabee 2.1%, Lindsey Graham 1.9%, John Kasich 1.4%, Rick Santorum 0.5%, George Pataki 0.2%, Undecided 1.3%
Winthrop University Margin of error: ± 3.4% Sample size: 828	November 30 – December 7, 2015	Donald Trump 24%	Ted Cruz 16%	Ben Carson 14%	Marco Rubio 11%, Jeb Bush 9%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%
Fox News Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 437	December 5–8, 2015	Donald Trump 35%	Ben Carson 15%	Marco Rubio/Ted Cruz 14%	Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 2%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, None of the Above 1%, Don't Know 5%
CBS News/YouGov Margin of error: ± 5.1% Sample size: ?	November 15–19, 2015	Donald Trump 35%	Ben Carson 19%	Marco Rubio 16%	Ted Cruz 13%, Jeb Bush 5%, Lindsey Graham 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 787	November 7–8, 2015	Donald Trump 25%	Ben Carson 21%	Ted Cruz 15%	Marco Rubio 13%, Jeb Bush 8%, Carly Fiorina 5%, John Kasich 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rand Paul 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, Undecided 3%
CBS News/YouGov Margin of error: ± 3.4% Sample size: 843	October 15–23, 2015	Donald Trump 40%	Ben Carson 23%	Ted Cruz 8%	Marco Rubio 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, No Preference 5%
Clemson-Palmetto Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 600	October 13–23, 2015	Donald Trump 23%	Ben Carson 19%	Ted Cruz 8%	Carly Fiorina 6%, Jeb Bush 7%, Marco Rubio 5%, Lindsey Graham 3%, Rand Paul 1%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, undecided/DK 15%
CNN/ORC Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 521	October 3–10, 2015	Donald Trump 36%	Ben Carson 18%	Marco Rubio 9%	Carly Fiorina 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Lindsey Graham 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Chris Christie 2%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore %, George Pataki % Bobby Jindal *%, None 1%, No opinion 4%
Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 762	October 1, 2015	Donald Trump 29.1%	Ben Carson 16.4%	Carly Fiorina 11.1%	Ted Cruz 8.1%, Marco Rubio 8%, Jeb Bush 5.9%, John Kasich 3.5%, Mike Huckabee 3.1%, Lindsey Graham 1.5%, Chris Christie 1.4%, Rand Paul 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.5%, George Pataki 0.3% Bobby Jindal 0.3%, Unsure 9.9%
CBS News/YouGov Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 1002	September 3–10, 2015	Donald Trump 36%	Ben Carson 21%	Ted Cruz 6%	Lindsey Graham 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, John Kasich 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Marco Rubio 3%, Scott Walker 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Perry 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 5%
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 764	September 3–6, 2015	Donald Trump 37%	Ben Carson 21%	Ted Cruz 6%	Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 4%, John Kasich 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Lindsey Graham 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Scott Walker 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%
Monmouth University Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 453	August 20–23, 2015	Donald Trump 30%	Ben Carson 15%	Jeb Bush 9%	Carly Fiorina 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Lindsey Graham 4%, Scott Walker 4%, John Kasich 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rick Perry 0%, George Pataki 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 11%
Opinion Savvy/Insider Advantage Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 509	August 3, 2015	Donald Trump 31.3%	Jeb Bush 13.9%	Ben Carson 9.9%	Mike Huckabee 8.5%, Lindsey Graham 6.5%, Scott Walker 5.8%, Ted Cruz 4.3%, Chris Christie 4.1%, John Kasich 3.1%, Marco Rubio 2.3%, Carly Fiorina 1.8%, Rand Paul 1.7%, Bobby Jindal 0.7%, Rick Perry 0.6%, Rick Santorum 0.1%, George Pataki 0%, Someone else 3.1%, Undecided 2.5%
Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 609	July 29–30, 2015	Donald Trump 34%	Ben Carson 10.9%	Jeb Bush 10.5%	Scott Walker 10.3%, Marco Rubio 6%, Mike Huckabee 5.5%, Lindsey Graham 4.9%, Ted Cruz 3.4%, John Kasich 3.3%, Chris Christie 2.5%, Rick Perry 2.5%, Carly Fiorina 2.4%, Rick Santorum 1.3%, Rand Paul 1%, Bobby Jindal 0.9%, George Pataki 0.7%
Morning Consult Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 389	May 31 – June 8, 2015	Lindsey Graham 14%	Ben Carson 12%	Jeb Bush 11%	Scott Walker 10%, Marco Rubio 8%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Donald Trump 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Don't know/No Opinion/Refused 16%, Someone else 2%
Winthrop University Margin of error: ± 3.2% Sample size: 956	April 4–12, 2015	Scott Walker 13.6%	Jeb Bush 12.7%	Ted Cruz 8.1%	Lindsey Graham 7.6%, Rand Paul 6.2%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4.9%, Mike Huckabee 4.9%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Perry 1.9%, Donald Trump 1.9%, Bobby Jindal 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.3%, John Bolton 0.2%, Other 1.4%, Undecided 25.1%
Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 3% Sample size: 1,371	March 26–27, 2015	Scott Walker 17%	Jeb Bush 16%	Ted Cruz 13%	Lindsey Graham 9%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rand Paul 5%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Undecided 18%
Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 3% Sample size: 792	February 24–25, 2015	Jeb Bush 19%	Scott Walker 17%	Lindsey Graham 12%	Mike Huckabee 10%, Chris Christie 8%, Rand Paul 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Ted Cruz 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Undecided 16%
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 525	February 12–15, 2015	Jeb Bush 19%	Scott Walker 18%	Ben Carson 13%	Lindsey Graham 13%, Mike Huckabee 12%, Chris Christie 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Ted Cruz 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Other/Undecided 6%
NBC News/Marist Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 450	February 3–10, 2015	Lindsey Graham 17%	Jeb Bush 15%	Scott Walker 12%	Ben Carson 10%, Mike Huckabee 10%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Rick Perry 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Ted Cruz 1%, Undecided 11%
Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 3% Sample size: 831	January 21–22, 2015	Mitt Romney 20%	Jeb Bush 16%	Scott Walker 9%	Ted Cruz 8%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Marco Rubio 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Undecided 12%
Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 3% Sample size: 831	January 21–22, 2015	Jeb Bush 18%	Mike Huckabee 11%	Scott Walker 11%	Ted Cruz 9%, Marco Rubio 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Rand Paul 8%, Rick Perry 5%, Rick Santorum 4%, Undecided 17%
Clemson University Margin of error: ± 6% Sample size: 400	May 22–29, 2014	Jeb Bush 22%	Chris Christie 10%	Ted Cruz 9%	Rand Paul 9%, Marco Rubio 6%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Undecided/Don't know 48%
Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 735	March 6–7, 2014	Jeb Bush 22%	Mike Huckabee 19%	Chris Christie 12%	Ted Cruz 8%, Rand Paul 8%, Marco Rubio 6%, Scott Walker 5%, Rick Santorum 2%, Undecided 19%
Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 601	November 30 – December 2, 2013	Chris Christie 16.6%	Jeb Bush 16%	Mike Huckabee 15.8%	Ted Cruz 11.1%, Rand Paul 9.7%, Marco Rubio 7.2%, Rick Santorum 2.8%, Scott Walker 2.3%, Undecided 18.5%
Harper Polling Margin of error: ± 5.03% Sample size: 379	October 27–28, 2013	Chris Christie 19%	Ted Cruz 17%	Rand Paul 13%	Marco Rubio 12%, Paul Ryan 12%, Bobby Jindal 6%, Not sure 21%

Results

Primary date: February 20, 2016

District conventions: April 2016

State convention: May 7, 2016

National delegates: 50

Analysis

Donald Trump won the South Carolina primary by ten points. He carried the crucial Evangelical vote with 33% to Cruz at 27% and Rubio at 22%. Many pundits were perplexed by Trump's dominance among culturally conservative Southern whites who were expected to view him as immoral, but he benefitted from voters' racial, cultural, and economic angst that mattered more than shared values.
Marco Rubio, who enjoyed the endorsement of Governor Nikki Haley, came in second in the primary. Rubio won the two urban counties of Richland and Charleston, both of which have a higher percentage of college-educated voters.