2016 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary
The 2016 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary was held on Tuesday March 1, as one of the Republican Party's 2016 presidential primaries. Massachusetts was one of eleven states that held both their Democratic and Republican presidential primaries on that day, dubbed "Super Tuesday". 42 delegates were allocated proportionally to all candidates who received at least 5 percent of the vote in the primary.
State of the campaign
Donald Trump won the Massachusetts primary comfortably, in keeping with polls that had shown him with double-digit leads over his primary rivals in the state. Trump's victory also reflected his relative strength among Republicans in the Northeastern United States. Trump received about 49% of the vote statewide. John Kasich and Marco Rubio came in second and third, respectively, each with about 18% of the vote. Ted Cruz came in fourth with just under 10% of the vote. Of the state's 42 delegates, Trump received 22 of them, Kasich and Rubio each received eight, and Cruz received four.Donald Trump enjoyed the endorsement of former Senator Scott Brown, who stumped for him in Massachusetts and New Hampshire ahead of the primary.
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
| Primary results | March 1, 2016 | Donald Trump48.99% | John Kasich17.94% | Marco Rubio17.75% | Ted Cruz 9.50%, Ben Carson 2.57%, Jeb Bush 1.03%, Chris Christie 0.30%, Rand Paul 0.29%, Carly Fiorina 0.18%, Jim Gilmore 0.12%, Mike Huckabee 0.11%, Mike Huckabee 0.08%, George Pataki 0.08%, Rick Santorum 0.05% |
| Emerson College Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 408 | February 26–28, 2016 | Donald Trump 51% | Marco Rubio 20% | John Kasich 14% | Ted Cruz 10%, Ben Carson 1%, Undecided 1% |
| UMass Amherst/WBZ Margin of error: ± 6.3% Sample size: 292 | February 24–26, 2016 | Donald Trump 47% | Marco Rubio 15% | Ted Cruz 15% | John Kasich 11%, Ben Carson 2%, Other 7%, Don't Know 3% |
| Suffolk University Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 500 | February 24–26, 2016 | Donald Trump 42.6% | Marco Rubio 19.8% | John Kasich 17% | Ted Cruz 8.8%, Ben Carson 3.8%, Other 1%, Don't Know 7% |
| MassINC/WBUR Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 386 | February 21–23, 2016 | Donald Trump 39% | Marco Rubio 18% | John Kasich 17% | Ted Cruz 9%, Ben Carson 5%, Don't Know 12% |
| Emerson College Margin of error: ± 5.7% Sample size: 289 | February 19–21, 2016 | Donald Trump 50% | Marco Rubio 16% | John Kasich 13% | Ted Cruz 10%, Ben Carson 2% |
| Suffolk University Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 134 | November 19–22, 2015 | Donald Trump 32% | Marco Rubio 18% | Ted Cruz 10% | Jeb Bush 7%, Ben Carson 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Chris Christie 4%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 1%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 14% |
| Emerson College Margin of error: ± 5.9% Sample size: 271 | October 16–18, 2015 | Donald Trump 47.8% | Ben Carson 13.9% | Marco Rubio 11.8% | Jeb Bush 7.1%, Carly Fiorina 6.5%, Ted Cruz 5.1%, John Kasich 2.8%, Chris Christie 2.3%, Lindsey Graham 0.9%, Mike Huckabee 0.4%, Rand Paul 0.1%, Undecided 1.4% |
| Emerson College Margin of error: ± ? Sample size: 216 | March 14–19, 2015 | Jeb Bush 19% | Scott Walker 19% | Ben Carson 13% | Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Ted Cruz 6%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Other/Undecided 28% |
| Suffolk University Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400 | August 21–24, 2014 | Chris Christie 11% | Paul Ryan 11% | Jeb Bush 10.75% | Rand Paul 10.5%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Scott Walker 6.75%, Marco Rubio 5.75%, Rick Perry 4.75%, Ted Cruz 4.25%, Bobby Jindal 3.5%, Rick Santorum 2.75%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 1.75%, John Kasich 1%, Undecided 18.25%, Other 0.5%, Refused 0.5% |
| Suffolk University Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400 | August 21–24, 2014 | Mitt Romney 48.62% | Chris Christie 7.69% | Paul Ryan 5.54% | Jeb Bush 5.23%, Ted Cruz 3.69%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 3.38%, Bobby Jindal 3.38%, Rand Paul 3.38%, Scott Walker 3.38%, Mike Huckabee 3.08%, Marco Rubio 2.77%, Rick Perry 1.54%, John Kasich 1.23%, Rick Santorum 1.23%, Undecided 4.92%, Refused 0.92% |
Analysis
Massachusetts was Trump's best Super Tuesday state. According to exit polls by Edison Research, Trump's base were white non-college voters, whom he swept with 63% of the vote in a five-way contest.According to Pew Research, Massachusetts has the lowest percentage of Evangelicals of any Super Tuesday contest, but the highest percentage of Catholics.
Aside from a few Kasich-voting towns in the Boston Metro, Trump swept every town in the state.
Results
Results by county
Donald Trump won a majority or plurality of the vote in every county in Massachusetts.| County | Trump | Kasich | Rubio | Cruz |
| Barnstable | 17,227 | 5,889 | 5,248 | 2,897 |
| Berkshire | 3,418 | 1,303 | 1,521 | 1,010 |
| Bristol | 25,685 | 6,048 | 7,640 | 4,794 |
| Dukes | 692 | 283 | 214 | 137 |
| Essex | 43,629 | 14,779 | 14,037 | 7,381 |
| Franklin | 2,409 | 1,359 | 1,038 | 597 |
| Hampden | 18,700 | 6,350 | 5,847 | 4,636 |
| Hampshire | 5,345 | 2,440 | 1,936 | 1,297 |
| Middlesex | 69,588 | 30,515 | 28,750 | 12,949 |
| Nantucket | 484 | 149 | 176 | 100 |
| Norfolk | 35,540 | 15,838 | 15,398 | 6,511 |
| Plymouth | 34,849 | 10,523 | 10,237 | 6,018 |
| Suffolk | 12,995 | 5,633 | 6,031 | 2,176 |
| Worcester | 41,864 | 13,325 | 15,097 | 10,089 |
| Total | 312,425 | 114,434 | 113,170 | 60,592 |