2016 Arkansas Republican presidential primary
The 2016 Arkansas Republican presidential primary was won by Donald Trump with a plurality 32.8% support over Senator Ted Cruz, who competed heavily in Arkansas and hailed from neighboring Texas, with 30.5% support. While Marco Rubio earned the endorsement of Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, Ted Cruz competed aggressively with Trump for the state's Evangelical base.
Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot.
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
| Primary results | March 1, 2016 | Donald Trump32.79% | Ted Cruz30.50% | Marco Rubio24.80% | Ben Carson 5.72%, John Kasich 3.72%, Mike Huckabee 1.17%, Jeb Bush 0.58%, Rand Paul 0.28%, Chris Christie 0.15%, Carly Fiorina 0.10%, Rick Santorum 0.07%, Lindsey Graham 0.06%, Bobby Jindal 0.04% |
| SurveyMonkey Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 542 | February 22–29, 2016 | Donald J. Trump 34% | Ted Cruz 27% | Marco Rubio 20% | Ben Carson 8%, John Kasich 4%, Undecided 6% |
| Talk Business/Hendrix Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 457 | February 4, 2016 | Ted Cruz 27% | Marco Rubio 23% | Donald J. Trump 23% | Ben Carson 11%, Carly Fiorina 4%, John Kasich 4%, Jeb Bush 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Don't Know 6% |
| Opinion Savvy/Insider Advantage Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 428 | August 2, 2015 | Donald J. Trump 25.5% | Mike Huckabee 21.4% | Jeb Bush 9.2% | Ted Cruz 8.7%, Ben Carson 8.2%, Scott Walker 4.2%, Rand Paul 3.8%, John Kasich 3.1%, Marco Rubio 2.9%, Chris Christie 2.4%, Rick Perry 1.5%, Carly Fiorina 1.3%, Bobby Jindal 1.3%, Lindsey Graham 0.7%, Rick Santorum 0.3%, George Pataki 0%, Someone else 2.2%, Undecided 3.2% |
| Suffolk University Margin of error: ± 7.5% Sample size: 171 | September 20–23, 2014 | Mike Huckabee 39.27% | Rick Perry 8.38% | Ted Cruz 7.33% | Rand Paul 6.28%, Jeb Bush 4.71%, Chris Christie 4.71%, Marco Rubio 4.71%, Paul Ryan 3.14%, Bobby Jindal 2.62%, Rick Santorum 2.09%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 1.57%, Scott Walker 1.57%, John Kasich 1.05%, Other 2.09%, Undecided 10.47% |
| Suffolk University Margin of error: ± 7.5% Sample size: 171 | September 20–23, 2014 | Mitt Romney 32.75% | Mike Huckabee 29.24% | Ted Cruz 6.43% | Rick Perry 6.43%, Chris Christie 2.92%, Rand Paul 2.92%, Paul Ryan 2.34%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 1.75%, Marco Rubio 1.75%, Jeb Bush 1.17%, Rick Santorum 0.58%, Scott Walker 0.58%, Bobby Jindal 0%, John Kasich 0% Undecided 11.11% |
| Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 479 | August 1–3, 2014 | Mike Huckabee 33% | Ted Cruz 12% | Jeb Bush 10% | Chris Christie 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Scott Walker 6%, Bobby Jindal 5%, Marco Rubio 4%, Paul Ryan 3%, Someone else/Not sure 11% |
| Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 5.4% Sample size: 342 | April 25–27, 2014 | Mike Huckabee 38% | Ted Cruz 14% | Rand Paul 13% | Jeb Bush 10%, Chris Christie 4%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Marco Rubio 3%, Paul Ryan 3%, Cliven Bundy 2%, Someone else/Not sure 10% |
| Magellan Strategies Margin of error: ± 3.35% Sample size: 857 | April 14–15, 2014 | Mike Huckabee 57% | Rand Paul 9% | Jeb Bush 8% | Chris Christie 6%, Ted Cruz 6%, Marco Rubio 5%, John Kasich 2%, Scott Walker 1%, Undecided 7% |
Analysis
According to exit polls by Edison Research, Donald J. Trump carried 39% of non-college Republican voters in Arkansas. Trump also won with 39% of veterans, a key demographic for Republican candidates in the South. Cruz and Trump split Evangelical voters with 33% each, which gave way to a close statewide result in the primary.Many pundits were perplexed by Trump's dominance among culturally conservative Southern whites who were expected to view him as immoral, but he benefitted from voters' racial, cultural, and economic angst that mattered more than shared values.
The week before the primary, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, daughter of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, joined Donald J. Trump's campaign.