2012 Montana gubernatorial election
The 2012 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, to elect the governor of Montana. Incumbent Democratic governor Brian Schweitzer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term.
Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary with 87% of the vote and former U.S. representative Rick Hill won the Republican primary with 34% of the vote. In the general election, Bullock won by 7,571 votes, taking 48.9% of the vote to Hill's 47.3%. With a margin of 1.6%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2012 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in Puerto Rico. Due to the close margin, media outlets did not call the race for Bullock until the next day. This was the last time anyone other than Greg Gianforte was the Republican nominee.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Steve Bullock, Montana Attorney General
- Heather Margolis, Montana representative for community service organization ServeNext
Withdrew
Declined
- John Bohlinger, Lieutenant Governor of Montana
- Carl Borgquist, president of Grasslands Renewable Energy of Bozeman
- Dave Wanzenried, state senator
- Pat Williams, former U.S. representative
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Bob Fanning, retired businessman
- Rick Hill, former U.S. representative
- Neil Livingstone, terrorism and national security analyst
- Jim Lynch, former Montana Department of Transportation director
- Ken Miller, former state senator and former chairman of the Montana Republican Party
- Jim O'Hara, Chouteau County Commissioner
- Corey Stapleton, former state senator
Withdrew
- Jeff Essmann, Majority Leader of the Montana Senate
- Drew Turiano, real estate investor
Declined
- Denny Rehberg, U.S. representative
General election
Candidates
- Steve Bullock, Montana attorney general
- Rick Hill, former U.S. representative
- Ron Vandevender, businessman
Debate
- , C-SPAN, October 10, 2012
Polling
Aggregate polls| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Steve Bullock | Rick Hill | Other/Undecided | Margin |
| Real Clear Politics | September 27 – November 3, 2012 | November 3, 2012 | 44.0% | 45.7% | 10.3% | Hill +1.7% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Steve Bullock | Rick Hill | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | November 2–3, 2012 | 836 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 29–31, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 2% | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 8–10, 2012 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 7% |
| Montana State University | September 27–30, 2012 | 477 | ± 4.6% | 38% | 40% | 2% | 20% |
| Mason-Dixon | September 17–19, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 43% | 2% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 10–11, 2012 | 656 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 39% | 8% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 39% | — | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 38% | 39% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 39% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ± 2.9% | 31% | 41% | — | 28% |
With Bohlinger
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Bohlinger | Jeff Essmann | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 40% | 33% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Bohlinger | Rick Hill | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 40% | — | 21% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Bohlinger | Ken Miller | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 33% | — | 28% |
With Bullock
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Steve Bullock | Jeff Essmann | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 42% | 30% | — | 28% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 38% | 33% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Steve Bullock | Neil Livingstone | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 41% | 29% | — | 30% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Steve Bullock | Ken Miller | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 35% | — | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 40% | 31% | — | 29% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 38% | 34% | — | 28% |
With Jent
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Larry Jent | Rick Hill | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 26% | 39% | — | 35% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Larry Jent | Neil Livingstone | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 26% | 30% | — | 44% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Larry Jent | Ken Miller | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 25% | 33% | — | 42% |
With Wanzenried
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dave Wanzenried | Jeff Essmann | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 31% | 33% | — | 36% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dave Wanzenried | Rick Hill | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 30% | 40% | — | 30% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dave Wanzenried | Ken Miller | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 30% | 35% | — | 35% |