2011 PSOE prime ministerial primary


A primary election was scheduled for Sunday, 26 June 2011, to elect the prime ministerial nominee of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party for the next Spanish general election, at the time expected for early 2012.
The primary process was triggered following the announcement on 2 April 2011 by PSOE leader José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero that he would not be running as the party's candidate for the post of prime minister of Spain in the next general election, initially scheduled for 2012, against the backdrop of the ongoing financial crisis affecting the country. Deputy prime minister and interior minister, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, and defence minister, Carme Chacón, were widely seen as the most likely contenders for the position.
The PSOE's heavy defeats in the local and regional elections on 22 May 2011 prompted a party crisis, with some sectors demanding an extraordinary congress to be held to replace Zapatero. Chacón announced her withdrawal from the contest in order to allow the party to coalesce around Rubalcaba and prevent internal divisions that could damage both the party and government's standings ahead of the general election. As a result, the primaries were left uncontested and Rubalcaba was proclaimed candidate unopposed on 9 July 2011.

Background

The first experience in the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party to elect a prime ministerial nominee through party primaries was in [1998 PSOE Prime Minister of Spain|prime ministerial primary|1998], when Josep Borrell, a former public works minister, defeated Joaquín Almunia, then incumbent PSOE leader. However, Borrell withdrew his candidacy in 1999 over a tax fraud scandal affecting two former aides, with Almunia then being appointed as candidate unopposed; he would go on to lose the 2000 Spanish general election, which the People's Party won by a landslide. Another primary process in 2002 saw PSOE leader José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero being elected unopposed, and in 2007, with Zapatero as the incumbent prime minister, no primaries were organized.
The impact of the Great Recession in Spain and the adoption of a harsh austerity agenda had seen the ruling PSOE plummet in popularity, with the party suffering defeats in the 2009 European Parliament and 2010 Catalan elections while lagging behind the opposition PP under Mariano Rajoy in opinion polls. A possible decision by José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero not to seek re-election became the focus of political debate by 2010, with Zapatero himself refusing to publicly confirm or deny the speculation. This would last until 2 April 2011, when he announced his decision not to run for a third term in the next general election, initially scheduled for March 2012. In his speech, Zapatero called for his successor to be elected through a primary election, in order to avoid a situation mirroring Joaquín Almunia's rushed selection in the 1997 party congress, though regional PSOE leaders were not supportive of this procedure. Immediately following this announcement, deputy prime minister and interior minister Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba and defence minister Carme Chacón were considered as the favourites.
Following the PSOE's heavy defeat in the local and regional elections of 22 May 2011, regional Basque and Extremaduran PSOE leaders, Patxi López and Guillermo Fernández Vara, called for the cancellation of the primaries and the convening of an extraordinary party congress to replace Zapatero and define a new political program. Both Zapatero and the party's deputy secretary-general, José Blanco, rejected this notion and assured that the primary election process would go ahead. Concurrently, Chacón's supporters called for the primaries to be delayed in order for its political effect to "not go down after the summer", whereas several sectors within the party called for a "consensus candidacy" under Rubalcaba while adding pressure on Chacón not to run. Chacón ultimately withdrew on 26 May, confirming that she had intended to run but was stepping back for the sake of "party unity, Zapatero's image and the government's stability". This paved the way for Rubalcaba to become the sole major candidate.

Overview

Procedure

Following its 2000 congress, the PSOE approved a party regulation governing public offices that included the election of candidates through a closed primary system. Primaries were established as mandatory to elect prime ministerial nominees, except when the party already held the office of prime minister, in which case a primary election would only be held if explicitly requested by a majority of members in the federal committee.
The primary election was organized on the basis of plurality voting. Voting comprised all members of the PSOE—including its regional branches—and the Socialists' Party of Catalonia. Candidates seeking to run were required to collect the endorsements of either at least 10% of party members, the federal committee as a body or a majority of members in the federal executive commission. In the event of only one candidate meeting this requirement, the primaries would be left uncontested with such candidate being elected unopposed.

Timetable

The key dates of the primary election procedure are listed below :
  • 28 May: Official announcement of the primary election; start of endorsement collection and candidacy submission periods.
  • 13 June: End of endorsement collection and candidacy submission periods at 12 pm.
  • 14 June: Endorsement verification.
  • 15 June: Provisional proclamation of primary candidates.
  • 18 June: Definitive proclamation of primary candidates.
  • 19 June: Official start of internal information campaign.
  • 25 June: Last day of internal information campaign.
  • 26 June: Primary election.
  • 2 July: Proclamation of prime ministerial nominee.

Candidates

Qualified

! colspan="6"|

Declined

The individuals in this section were the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but publicly denied or recanted interest in running:

Endorsements

Rubalcaba secured the endorsement of the federal committee on 28 May, whereas all the other nine announced candidates failed to meet the threshold in time, garnering a total 14 "spontaneous" endorsements which were regarded as invalid due to them being sent via email or fax. Julián Pastor had previously claimed to have 8,500 endorsements; David González reported having "4,000 or 5,000" endorsements but acknowledged being unable to verify whether they belonged to party members because he was not able to access the official census; whereas José Carlos Carmona was said to have about 4,700.

Opinion polls

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the candidate's colour. In the instance of a tie, the figures with the highest percentages are shaded. Polls show data gathered among PSOE voters/supporters as well as Spanish voters as a whole, but not among party members, who were the ones ultimately entitled to vote in the primary election.

Aftermath

The lack of any significant challenger following the PSOE's rally around Rubalcaba meant that the primary process was left uncontested. As a result, the federal committee ratified Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba as the party's prime ministerial candidate on 9 July 2011. Rubalcaba subsequently vacated all of his cabinet posts in order to focus on his candidacy.