Wagner Group rebellion
On 23 June 2023, the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, staged an uprising against the Russian government. It marked the climax of the Wagner Group–Ministry of Defense conflict, which had begun about six months earlier. Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, who had been leading Wagner Group activities in Ukraine, stood down after reaching an agreement a day later.
Amidst the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Prigozhin had come to publicly express his resentment towards Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov; he frequently blamed both men for Russia's military inadequacies, especially during the Wagner-led battle of Bakhmut, and accused them of handing over "Russian territories" to the Ukrainians. He portrayed the Wagner Group's rebellion as his response to the Russian Armed Forces allegedly attacking and killing hundreds of his Wagner mercenaries, which the Russian government denied. Characterizing it as a "march of justice" against the Russian military establishment, he demanded that Shoigu and Gerasimov be removed from their positions, and eventually stated that Russia's justification for attacking Ukraine was a lie. In the early morning of 24 June, President of Russia Vladimir Putin appeared in a televised address to denounce the Wagner Group's actions as treason before pledging to quell their uprising.
Wagner mercenaries first seized Rostov-on-Don, where the Southern Military District is headquartered, while an armored column of theirs advanced through Voronezh Oblast and towards Moscow. Armed with mobile anti-aircraft systems, they repelled the Russian military's aerial attacks, which ultimately failed to deter the Wagner column's progress. Ground defenses were concentrated on the approach to Moscow, but before Wagner Group could reach them, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko brokered a settlement with Prigozhin, who subsequently agreed to halt the rebellion. In the late evening of 24 June, Wagner troops abandoned their push to Moscow and those who remained in Rostov-on-Don began withdrawing.
In accordance with Lukashenko's agreement, Russia's Federal Security Service, which had initiated a case to prosecute the Wagner Group for armed rebellion against the Russian state under Article 279 of the Criminal Code, dropped all charges against Prigozhin and his Wagner fighters on 27 June. By the end of the hostilities, at least thirteen Russian soldiers had been killed and several Wagner mercenaries had been injured; Prigozhin stated that two defectors from the Russian military had been killed on Wagner's side as well. On 23 August 2023, exactly two months after the rebellion, Prigozhin was killed in a plane explosion alongside other senior Wagner officials.
Background
Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group
In the early 1990s, Prigozhin, having served a decade in prison before embarking on an entrepreneurial career, emerged as a prominent figure in Saint Petersburg's business life, gaining recognition for a string of highly regarded restaurants. This connection facilitated a financial association with Putin, who was actively engaged in municipal politics during that period. Prigozhin gradually evolved into a trusted and intimate confidant of Putin, forging a close personal bond.In 2014, Prigozhin founded the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company. Despite the legal prohibition of private military companies in Russia, Wagner operated unimpeded with implicit endorsement and funding from the Russian government. Many analysts have said the government employed Wagner services to allow for plausible deniability and obscure the actual toll in terms of casualties and financial costs of Russia's foreign interventions.
Serving as a tool of Russian foreign and military policy, Wagner emerged as a formidable combat force in various regions, including the Donbas conflict. It played a significant role during Russia's military intervention in the Syrian civil war, providing support to Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, and has participated in conflicts in Mali, Libya, and the Central African Republic. Wagner has garnered infamy due to its ruthless methods and participation in war crimes throughout Africa, the Middle East, and Ukraine, perpetrating atrocities with impunity.
The group maintains close ties with multiple African governments, enjoying considerable autonomy to exploit the natural resources of these nations in return for supporting local forces in their battle against anti-government rebels. Wagner's economic endeavors in Africa witnessed an upward trajectory even amidst the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as the funds generated were channeled towards financing the conflicts in Ukraine and other regions.
Internal tensions during the invasion of Ukraine
Order to integrate Wagner
In mid-June 2023, the MoD ordered Wagner to sign contracts with the military before 1 July. This move effectively integrated Wagner as a subordinate unit within the regular command structure, thereby diminishing the influence of Prigozhin. However, Prigozhin declined to sign the agreement, alleging incompetence on the part of Shoigu. Reports from the independent Russian news outlet Meduza indicated that this development would undermine Prigozhin's hold over Wagner and jeopardize the group's profitable operations in Africa. Prigozhin unsuccessfully attempted to circumvent the order for Wagner's subordination while intensifying his criticism of the MoD. He went as far as advocating for the execution of Shoigu and hinting at a potential popular uprising against inept officials. Prigozhin believed that Putin would ultimately side with him in his struggle against the MoD if he launched a mutiny.Planning the rebellion
agencies observed a gradual accumulation of Wagner forces near the Russian border along with evidence of Wagner stockpiling equipment and resources in preparation for the rebellion. Although they obtained information regarding the where and how of the planned rebellion, the exact timing remained unknown. Western intelligence agencies reportedly uncovered the plan through communications intercepts and satellite image analysis. Several weeks prior to the actual event, U.S. intelligence started foreseeing a significant Wagner insurrection and obtained solid evidence of the imminent rebellion before 21 June. Prigozhin seemed to have set the plan in motion following the MoD decision on 10 June, which would effectively integrate Wagner forces into the regular military. The foreign intelligence findings indicate that the revolt was planned in advance, contradicting Prigozhin's claim that the decision to rebel was made on 23 June.Anonymous U.S. officials later disclosed to The New York Times that Army General Sergey Surovikin had prior knowledge of the planned rebellion. Surovikin had acted as an intermediary between Prigozhin and the military hierarchy and was perceived to have close ties to Prigozhin. CNN obtained documents that indicated Surovikin had a personal registration number with Wagner and held a covert VIP membership within the group, alongside at least 30 other high-ranking Russian military and intelligence officials. Additionally, there were indications that other generals may have lent their support to the uprising. U.S. officials asserted that Prigozhin would not have instigated the rebellion unless he harbored the belief that he had backing from specific sectors within the Russian power structure.
According to disclosures by Western officials to The Wall Street Journal, the Russian Federal Security Service discovered the plan two days before it was scheduled to be executed. The discovery of the plan led to the premature start of the rebellion. Prigozhin intended to capture defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov during their planned joint visit to the southern region of Russia that borders Ukraine and Western officials said the plan had a good chance of success had it not been discovered, leading Prigozhin to improvise an alternative plan. Western officials said intelligence findings indicated that Prigozhin's plan rested on his belief that a part of the armed forces would join the rebellion, and that they believed Prigozhin had informed some senior military offices about his plan. Commander of the Russian National Guard Viktor Zolotov has claimed that Russian authorities learned about the planned rebellion and that it would be executed between 22 and 25 June. According to anonymous accounts conveyed by Meduza, it's possible that the security services "didn't have the nerve to tell the president that something's up with Prigozhin because if they reported the problem, decisions would have to be made. And how would you make that decision?" According to Meduza
The Moscow Times reported that hours before his announcement of the rebellion, Prigozhin was secretly planning to attend a roundtable discussion in the State Duma opened by A Just Russia – For Truth leader Sergei Mironov in which MPs criticized the Kremlin's handling of the war effort in Ukraine. It added that Prigozhin was supposed to give a harsh criticism of the Russian military leadership from the Duma's chamber in a final attempt to win back Putin's approval. However, his plans were canceled at the last minute without explanation.