Prediction of volcanic activity


Prediction of volcanic activity, and volcanic eruption forecasting, is an interdisciplinary monitoring and research effort to predict the time and severity of a volcano's eruption. Of particular importance is the prediction of hazardous eruptions that could lead to catastrophic loss of life, property, and disruption of human activities.
Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction, which are not necessarily the same thing in the context of volcanoes, where opinions have often played a role, and the prediction in time for an individual volcano is different from predicting eruption characteristics for apparently similar volcanoes. Both forecasting and prediction have processes based on past and present data.
Image:MSH80 eruption mount st helens 05-18-80.jpg|thumb|right|200px|Mount St. Helens erupted explosively on May 18, 1980, at 8:32 a.m. PDT

Seismic waves (seismicity)

General principles of volcano seismology

  • Seismic activity always occurs as volcanoes awaken and prepare to erupt and are a very important link to eruptions. Some volcanoes normally have continuing low-level seismic activity, but an increase may signal a greater likelihood of an eruption. The types of earthquakes that occur and where they start and end are also key signs. Volcanic seismicity has three major forms: short-period earthquake, long-period earthquake, and harmonic tremor.
  • Short-period earthquakes are like normal fault-generated earthquakes. They are caused by the fracturing of brittle rock as magma forces its way upward. These short-period earthquakes signify the growth of a magma body near the surface and are known as 'A' waves. These types of seismic events are often also referred to as Volcano-Tectonic events or earthquakes.
  • Long-period earthquakes are believed to indicate increased gas pressure in a volcano's plumbing system. They are similar to the clanging sometimes heard in a house's plumbing system, which is known as "water hammer". These oscillations are the equivalent of acoustic vibrations in a chamber, in the context of magma chambers within the volcanic dome and are known as 'B' waves. These are also known as resonance waves and long period resonance events.
  • Harmonic tremors are often the result of magma pushing against the overlying rock below the surface. They can sometimes be strong enough to be felt as humming or buzzing by people and animals, hence the name.
Patterns of seismicity are complex and often difficult to interpret; however, increasing seismic activity is a good indicator of increasing eruption risk, especially if long-period events become dominant and episodes of harmonic tremor appear.
Using a similar method, researchers can detect volcanic eruptions by monitoring infra-sound—sub-audible sound below 20 Hz. The IMS Global Infrasound Network, originally set up to verify compliance with nuclear test ban treaties, has 60 stations around the world that work to detect and locate erupting volcanoes.

Seismic case studies

A relation between long-period events and imminent volcanic eruptions was first observed in the seismic records of the 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia. The occurrence of long-period events were then used to predict the 1989 eruption of Mount Redoubt in Alaska and the 1993 eruption of Galeras in Colombia. In December 2000, scientists at the National Center for Prevention of Disasters in Mexico City predicted an eruption within two days at Popocatépetl, on the outskirts of Mexico City. Their prediction used research that had been done by Bernard Chouet, a Swiss volcanologist who was working at the United States Geological Survey and who first observed a relation between long-period events and an imminent eruption. The government evacuated tens of thousands of people; 48 hours later, the volcano erupted as predicted. It was Popocatépetl's largest eruption for a thousand years, yet no one was hurt.

Iceberg tremors

Similarities between iceberg tremors, which can be observed when they run aground, and volcanic tremors were postulated to help experts develop a better method for predicting volcanic eruptions. As icebergs have much simpler structures than volcanoes, the cause of tremors is easier to model. The similarities between volcanic and iceberg tremors included long durations and amplitudes, as well as common shifts in frequencies. These observations with refinement modelling of the causes of both types of tremors allowed the later development of better automatic detection mechanisms for some volcanic eruptions.

Gas emissions

As magma nears the surface and its pressure decreases, gases escape. This process is much like what happens when you open a bottle of fizzy drink and carbon dioxide escapes. Sulfur dioxide is one of the main components of volcanic gases, and increasing amounts of it herald the arrival of increasing amounts of magma near the surface. For example, on May 13, 1991, an increasing amount of sulfur dioxide was released from Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines. On May 28, just two weeks later, sulfur dioxide emissions had increased to 5,000 tonnes, ten times the earlier amount. Mount Pinatubo later erupted on June 12, 1991. On several occasions, such as before the Mount Pinatubo eruption and the 1993 Galeras, Colombia eruption, sulfur dioxide emissions have dropped to low levels prior to eruptions. Most scientists believe that this drop in gas levels is caused by the sealing of gas passages by hardened magma. Such an event leads to increased pressure in the volcano's plumbing system and an increased chance of an explosive eruption. A multi-component gas analyzer system is an instrument package used to take real-time high-resolution measurements of volcanic gas plumes. Multi-GAS measurements of CO2/SO2 ratios can allow detection of the pre-eruptive degassing of rising magmas, improving prediction of volcanic activity.

Ground deformation

Swelling of a volcano signals that magma has accumulated near the surface. Scientists monitoring an active volcano will often measure the tilt of the slope and track changes in the rate of swelling. An increased rate of swelling, especially if accompanied by an increase in sulfur dioxide emissions and harmonic tremors is a high probability sign of an impending event. The deformation of Mount St. Helens prior to the May 18, 1980 eruption was a classic example of deformation, as the north side of the volcano was bulging upwards as magma was building up underneath. Most cases of ground deformation are usually detectable only by sophisticated equipment used by scientists, but they can still predict future eruptions this way.
The Hawaiian volcanoes show significant ground deformation; there is inflation of the ground prior to an eruption and then an obvious deflation post-eruption. This is due to the shallow magma chamber of the Hawaiian volcanoes; movement of the magma is easily noticed on the ground above.

Thermal monitoring

Both magma movement, changes in gas release and hydrothermal activity can lead to thermal emissivity changes at the volcano's surface. These can be measured using several techniques:
There are 4 main methods that can be used to predict a volcanic eruption through the use of hydrology:
  • Borehole and well hydrologic and hydraulic measurements are increasingly used to monitor changes in a volcanoes subsurface gas pressure and thermal regime. Increased gas pressure will make water levels rise and suddenly drop right before an eruption, and thermal focusing can reduce or dry out aquifers.
  • Detection of lahars and other debris flows close to their sources. USGS scientists have developed an inexpensive, durable, portable and easily installed system to detect and continuously monitor the arrival and passage of debris flows and floods in river valleys that drain active volcanoes.
  • Pre-eruption sediment may be picked up by a river channel surrounding the volcano that shows that the actual eruption may be imminent. Most sediment is transported from volcanically disturbed watersheds during periods of heavy rainfall. This can be an indication of morphological changes and increased hydrothermal activity in absence of instrumental monitoring techniques.
  • Volcanic deposit that may be placed on a river bank can easily be eroded which will dramatically widen or deepen the river channel. Therefore, monitoring of the river channels width and depth can be used to assess the likelihood of a future volcanic eruption.

    Remote sensing

is the detection by a satellite's sensors of electromagnetic energy that is absorbed, reflected, radiated or scattered from the surface of a volcano or from its erupted material in an eruption cloud.
  • Cloud sensing: Scientists can monitor the unusually cold eruption clouds from volcanoes using data from two different thermal wavelengths to enhance the visibility of eruption clouds and discriminate them from meteorological clouds
  • Gas sensing: Sulfur dioxide can also be measured by remote sensing at some of the same wavelengths as ozone. Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometers can measure the amount of sulfur dioxide gas released by volcanoes in eruptions. Carbon dioxide emissions from volcanoes have been detected in the short-wave infrared using NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2.
  • Thermal sensing: The presence of new significant thermal signatures or 'hot spots' may indicate new heating of the ground before an eruption, represent an eruption in progress or the presence of a very recent volcanic deposit, including lava flows or pyroclastic flows.
  • Deformation sensing: Satellite-borne spatial radar data can be used to detect long-term geometric changes in the volcanic edifice, such as uplift and depression. In this method, interferometric synthetic aperture radar, digital elevation models generated from radar imagery are subtracted from each other to yield a differential image, displaying rates of topographic change.
  • Forest monitoring: Recently, it has been demonstrated that the location of eruptive fractures could be predicted, months to years before the eruptions, by the monitoring of forest growth. This tool based on the monitoring of the trees growth has been validated at both Mt. Niyragongo and Mt. Etna during the 2002–2003 volcano eruptive events.
  • Infrasound sensing: A relatively new approach to detecting volcanic eruptions involves using infrasound sensors from the International Monitoring System infrasound network. This method of detection takes signals from multiple sensors and uses triangulation to determine the location of the eruption.