2022 United States Senate election in Washington


The 2022 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Murray had won election to a fifth term in 2016 with 59% of the vote.
Because Washington has a blanket primary system, parties did not nominate their own candidates to run in the general election. Instead, every candidate appeared on the same ballot, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two candidates in the August 2 nonpartisan blanket primary then advanced to the general election. Murray received 52.3% of the primary vote and advanced to face Republican Tiffany Smiley.
Although Washington has been a reliably blue state for over 30 years, many polls showed that Murray only had a narrow lead over Smiley, and some polls had Smiley within the margin of error. A couple of late polls had the two candidates tied; such polls caused most pundits to downgrade their forecast from "safe Democratic" to "likely Democratic", and Republicans believed that Smiley had a chance of pulling off an upset. Despite the predictions of a close race, Murray defeated Smiley and won re-election to a sixth term by a 14.5-point margin. Although this was a significantly larger margin of victory for Murray than what was expected, it was fairly consistent with Washington's partisan lean. Smiley conceded the following day. Despite her loss, she made significant gains in several counties, particularly in the Southwestern and Eastern parts of the state.
Following the election, Murray was elected president pro tempore for the 118th Congress, becoming the first woman to hold the role.

Primary election

Democratic candidates

Advanced to general

Advanced to general

  • Tiffany Smiley, nurse

    Eliminated in primary

  • John Guenther, state employee
  • Bill Hirt, perennial candidate

    Withdrawn

  • Bob Hagglund, IT professional
  • Isaac Holyk, software developer

    Third party and independent candidates

Eliminated in primary

Results

General election

Debates

Two debates were held, the first on October 23 at Gonzaga University. The second was town hall-style forum on October 30 in the KIRO-TV studio in Seattle.
Murray's campaign declined an invitation to a scheduled debate on October 25 at Seattle University.

Predictions

Post-primary endorsements

Polling

Aggregate polls

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Patty
Murray 		Tiffany
Smiley 		OtherUndecided
Moore Information Group November 3–5, 2022500 ± 4.0%47%47%–5%
InsiderAdvantage October 31, 2022550 ± 4.2%48%46%–6%
The Trafalgar Group October 25–28, 20221,207 ± 2.9%49%48%–2%
Triton Polling & ResearchOctober 26–27, 2022506 ± 4.4%51%45%–4%
Moore Information Group October 20–22, 2022500 ± 4.0%46%46%–8%
KAConsulting October 20–22, 2022500 ± 4.4%48%42%4%6%
co/efficient October 19–20, 20221,181 ± 3.0%48%45%–7%
Public Policy Polling October 19–20, 2022782 ± 3.5%52%42%–6%
SurveyUSAOctober 14–19, 2022589 ± 5.0%49%41%–10%
CiviqsOctober 15–18, 2022698 ± 4.5%55%41%3%2%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 29 – October 1, 2022782 ± 3.4%51%42%–7%
Public Policy Polling September 27–28, 2022770 ± 3.5%52%40%–8%
OnMessage Inc. September 20–27, 2022600 ± 4.0%46%42%5%6%
Strategies 360September 22–25, 2022500 ± 4.4%50%36%–14%
Strategies 360September 22–25, 2022370 ± 5.1%52%40%–8%
The Trafalgar Group September 21–24, 20221,091 ± 2.9%49%47%–5%
Elway ResearchSeptember 12–15, 2022403 ± 3.0%50%37%–12%
Public Policy Polling September 6–7, 2022620 ± 3.0%48%39%–13%
Moore Information Group September 2022500 ± 4.0%48%44%–8%
The Trafalgar Group August 30 – September 1, 20221,087 ± 2.9%49%46%–5%
McLaughlin & Associates August 15–17, 2022500 ± 4.4%49%43%–8%
Elway ResearchJuly 7–11, 2022400 ± 4.5%53%33%–15%
SurveyUSAJuly 6–10, 2022596 ± 5.0%51%33%–16%
The Tarrance Group June 14–19, 2022600 ± 4.0%48%43%–9%
Public Policy Polling June 1–2, 20221,039 ± 3.0%51%40%–8%
Public Policy Polling February 17–18, 2022700 ± 3.7%50%41%–9%
Public Policy Polling November 10–11, 2021909 ± 3.3%50%37%–13%
SurveyUSAOctober 25–28, 2021542 ± 5.2%49%31%–20%
Public Policy Polling May 25–26, 2021992 ± 3.1%53%37%–10%

Patty Murray vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Patty
Murray 		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Elway ResearchDecember 26–28, 2021400 ± 5.0%42%39%19%

Patty Murray vs. generic opponent

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Patty
Murray 		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates August 15–17, 2022500 ± 4.4%44%44%12%

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Murray won seven of ten congressional districts, with the remaining three going to Smiley, including one that elected a Democrat.
DistrictMurraySmileyRepresentative
62%37%Suzan DelBene
59%41%Rick Larsen
46%54%Jaime Herrera Beutler
46%54%Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
34%66%Dan Newhouse
42%58%Cathy McMorris Rodgers
57%43%Derek Kilmer
87%13%Pramila Jayapal
51%49%Kim Schrier
71%29%Adam Smith
57%43%Marilyn Strickland