May 2003 Madrilenian regional election

A regional election was held in the Community of Madrid on Sunday, 25 May 2003, to elect the 6th Assembly of the autonomous community. All 111 seats in the Assembly were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.
As a result of the election, the People's Party lost its absolute majority in the Assembly, thus leaving the way open for a coalition government be formed between the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party and United Left. A major political scandal ensued after two PSOE deputies—Eduardo Tamayo and María Teresa Sáez—broke party discipline and refused to support PSOE regional leader Rafael Simancas's investiture. The prospective PSOE–IU alliance found itself commanding 54 seats against the 55-strong PP, which could not bring its candidate, Esperanza Aguirre, through an investiture vote as the rebel PSOE deputies would not vote for her either. With no candidate able to obtain the required votes to become president, the regional Assembly was dissolved on 28 August 2003 and a snap election was held in October 2003.

Background

The PP had replaced the PSOE in government after 12 years of Socialist rule as a result of the 1995 election. In the 1999 election, the PP, under Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón, managed to maintain their absolute majority, despite the opposition PSOE recovering lost ground. For the 2003 election, the ruling PP had switched leadership: President Ruiz-Gallardón ran as candidate for the office of Mayor of Madrid, while senator and former minister Esperanza Aguirre was selected to lead the regional list.

Overview

Under the 1983 Statute of Autonomy, the Assembly of Madrid was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.

Electoral system

Voting for the Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Community of Madrid and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they were not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote, nor being legally incapacitated.
The Assembly of Madrid was entitled to one seat per each 50,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 25,000. All members were elected in a single multi-member constituency—corresponding to the autonomous community's territory—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional voting system, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes being applied regionally. As a result of the aforementioned allocation, the Assembly was entitled to 111 seats, based on the official population figures resulting from the latest revision of the municipal register.
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occurred after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term were to be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when required, by the designated substitutes.

Election date

The term of the Assembly of Madrid expired four years after the date of its previous ordinary election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the fifty-fifth day prior to the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Community of Madrid. The previous election was held on 13 June 1999, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 25 May 2003.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Madrid and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the parliament's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their original four-year term.
The election to the Assembly of Madrid was officially called on 1 April 2003 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOCM, setting election day for 25 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 10 June.

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least 0.5 percent of the electorate in the Community of Madrid, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below the percentages in a smaller font; 56 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid.

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				Other/ None		Lead
Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				Other/ None		Lead
Opina/Cadena SER	11 May 2003	?	36.2	29.6	5.1	5.5	23.6	6.6
CIS	22 Mar–28 Apr 2003	1,190	34.2	34.5	7.9	6.2	17.1	0.3
Ipsos–Eco/ABC	22–24 Apr 2003	?	35.3	38.3	7.3	2.8	16.3	3.0

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				Other/ None		Lead
Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				Other/ None		Lead
Opina/Cadena SER	11 May 2003	?	49.4	19.4	0.6	0.6	29.9	30.0
CIS	22 Mar–28 Apr 2003	1,190	42.4	26.9	0.0	0.3	30.6	15.5
Ipsos–Eco/ABC	22–24 Apr 2003	?	49.9	28.9	–	1.6	19.6	21.0
Ipsos–Eco/ABC	6–13 Sep 2002	2,010	56.3	13.7	–	0.9	29.2	42.6

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Community of Madrid.

Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

Results

Elected legislators

The following table lists the elected legislators sorted by order of election:

Aftermath

Reactions

Election results saw the People's Party remaining the largest political party but one seat short of an overall majority, with the combined left-wing bloc of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party and United Left securing a combined 56 out of 111 seats. Both left-wing parties were favourable to an alliance that ousted the PP from the regional government, immediately starting negotiations to secure the investiture of regional PSOE leader Rafael Simancas as new president. Talks through late May and early June were positive, with the issue of IU joining a coalition government with the PSOE being discussed.

''Tamayazo'' scandal

Upon the Assembly's reconvening on 10 June, the unexpected absence of two PSOE deputies—Eduardo Tamayo and María Teresa Sáez, aligned to the internal "grassroots reformers" faction —resulted in the PP outnumbering the left-wing bloc 55 to 54, leading to the election of a PP speaker as well as a PP-leaning bureau. Both Tamayo and Sáez attributed their action to disagreements with the PSOE–IU alliance to rule the region. The PSOE and IU pointed at such move being motivated out of "economic and urban interests" instead, and hinted at an alleged bribing aimed at preventing a left-wing government in Madrid.
Following the Assembly's constitution, the new speaker, Concepción Dancausa, began a round of talks with the parliamentary groups in order to nominate a candidate to the regional presidency. PP leaders rejected all accusations of foul play and asserted that their party, while ready to assume power, would not try to negotiate any prospective investiture of their candidate—Esperanza Aguirre—with the two PSOE defectors, while proposing an immediate election repeat to resolve the gridlock. The PSOE insisted on attempting Simancas's investiture at some point, hoping to secure the resignation of Tamayo and Sáez so that they could be replaced by the successive candidates in the electoral list, but initially backed down from risking a failed vote.
The deadline for candidate nomination was 27 June, after which a candidate had to be proposed and an investiture debate be held by 2 July. While Simancas rejected accepting the defectors' votes to be elected, he voluntarily accepted being nominated for investiture in order to "gain time" and thwart the PP's intention to immediately dissolve the Assembly. Both defectors notified Dancausa that they would attend the Assembly and support Simancas's election, prompting the Speaker to schedule the investiture debate and vote for 27–28 June with Simancas as candidate. During the investiture session, Simancas publicly condemned the defectors' actions as political corruption. Both Tamayo and Sáez ultimately chose to abstain, as some PSOE deputies had planned to change their vote if the defectors supported Simancas's investiture.
After the investiture's failure and a parliamentary committee set up during the summer to investigate the causes of the defection—which ultimately led to a new gridlock, as both Tamayo and Sáez remained kingmakers—the Assembly was dissolved on 30 August and a new regional election was called for 26 October.