Six-year itch
The six-year itch, according to political scientists, is the pattern which takes place during a U.S. president's sixth year in office. This year is characterized by the nation's disgruntled attitude towards the president and their political party. During this time, there is a midterm election and the incumbent president's party usually loses a significant number of seats in Congress.
The term is derived from the phrase "seven-year itch", referring to a supposed pattern that relationships often sour after seven years of marriage, and the 1955 film of the same name. One of the earliest uses of the term in politics was by Republican strategist Kevin Phillips in a nationally syndicated 1973 column which looked ahead to the 1974 midterms.
History
Pre-Reconstruction
Prior to Reconstruction, the six-year itch saw the president's party gain seats in one house, while losing seats in the other house. Presidents before Reconstruction whose party had this occur:1814 – Democratic-Republican James Madison: 1814–15 United States [House of Representatives elections|Gained 5 seats] in the United States [House of Representatives|House], but Senate elections|lost 2 seats] in the Senate1822 – Democratic-Republican James Monroe: House of Representatives elections|Gained 34 seats] in the House, while the Senate was unchanged1834 – Democrat Andrew Jackson: Lost 0 seats in the House, but gained 1 seat in the Senate and gained control of the chamberDemocratic-Republican Thomas Jefferson was the only two-term president before Reconstruction not to have this occur. In 1806, his party gained 2 seats in the House and gained 1 seat in the Senate. Also, the Republican Party saw strong gains in the midterms of 1866, although Andrew Johnson, a former Democrat who had been elected as Abraham Lincoln's vice president on the National Union ticket, was president at the time. The Republicans gained 40 seats in the House and 18 seats in the Senate.
Post-Reconstruction
After Reconstruction, the six-year itch saw the president's party consistently lose seats in both houses. Presidents since Reconstruction whose party had this occur:1874 – Republican Ulysses S. Grant: Lost 93 seats in the House*, lost 10 seats in the Senate1894 – Democrat Grover Cleveland : Lost 127 seats in the House*, lost 4 seats in the Senate*1918 – Democrat Woodrow Wilson: Lost 22 seats in the House*, lost 5 seats in the Senate*1938 – Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt: Lost 72 seats in the House, lost 7 seats in the Senate1950 – Democrat Harry S. Truman: Lost 28 seats in the House, lost 5 seats in the Senate1958 – Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower: Lost 48 seats in the House^, lost 13 seats in the Senate^1966 – Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson: Lost 47 seats in the House^, lost 3 seats in the Senate^1974 – Republican Richard Nixon : Lost 48 seats in the House^, lost 4 seats in the Senate^1986 – Republican Ronald Reagan: Lost 5 seats in the House^, lost 8 seats in the Senate*2006 – Republican George W. Bush: Lost 30 seats in the House*, lost 6 seats in the Senate*2014 – Democrat Barack Obama: Lost 13 seats in the House^, lost 9 seats in the Senate**: The losses by the president's party resulted in the other party gaining control of this chamber.
^: Although the president's party lost seats, this chamber was already under the control of the opposition party.
Democrat Bill Clinton is the only two-term president since Reconstruction not to have this occur. In 1998, his party gained 5 seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate was unchanged. His party was uniquely in the minority in both houses of Congress and remained so after the elections.
On only three occasions has the six-year itch caused the president's party to lose control of Congress completely: Grover Cleveland in 1894, Woodrow Wilson in 1918, and George W. Bush in 2006. Conversely, only two presidents saw their parties maintain control of Congress even after the six-year itch: Democrats Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1938 and Harry S. Truman in 1950. Only two presidents already had a Congress that was completely dominated by the opposition party by the time of the six-year itch: Republicans Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1958 and Richard Nixon in 1974.
In addition, only one president has ever lost control of one house while keeping the other: Republican Ulysses S. Grant in 1874, who lost the House but kept the Senate. Republican Ronald Reagan lost the Senate in 1986 due to the six-year itch, but his party never controlled the House during his presidency. Lastly, the only president to have lost one house of Congress due to the six-year itch after already losing the other one was Democrat Barack Obama in 2014.
Comparison with other midterms
Overall, the six-year itch phenomenon may be viewed as an extension of "the midterm effect" where an incumbent president's party almost always loses seats in midterm elections. Since Reconstruction, only five presidents have ever seen their party gain seats in a midterm election, and those gains have largely been modest: Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934, Bill Clinton in 1998 George W. Bush in 2002, Donald Trump in 2018, and Joe Biden in 2022. Some of these exceptions have occurred alongside major events, such as the Great Depression and September 11 attacks.The losses suffered during a president's second midterm tend to be more pronounced than during their first midterm. One explanation for this in the Senate is that senators serve six year terms, so the losses or gains in an election six years after a president was elected are relative to an election where the President's party won the Presidency, and thus was likely to have done well in the Senate as well.