2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election


The 2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Minnesota. It was held concurrently with the 2014 [United States Senate election in Minnesota|election] to Minnesota's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party|Democratic–Farmer–Labor] governor Mark Dayton ran for re-election to a second term in office. Incumbent Democratic lieutenant governor Yvonne Prettner Solon retired and Tina Smith was selected as his new running mate.
Primary elections were held on August 12, 2014. Dayton and Smith won the Democratic primary and the Republicans nominated Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson and his running mate former state representative Bill Kuisle. In the general election, Dayton and Smith defeated them and several other minor party candidates with just over 50% of the vote. Dayton's victory broke his own record, set in 2010, as the oldest Minnesota gubernatorial candidate to win an election; he was 67. It was also the first gubernatorial race since 1994 in which the winner received a majority of the votes cast.
The election was the first time since 1994 that a third party did not gain more than 6% of the total vote.

Background

Incumbent Republican governor Tim Pawlenty declined to run for a third term in 2010, instead [Tim Pawlenty 2012 presidential campaign|running for the Republican presidential nomination] in the 2012 election. State Representative Tom Emmer easily won the Republican nomination, and former U.S. senator Mark Dayton won the DFL nomination with a plurality over State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher. After a very close race, Dayton defeated Emmer by just 8,770 votes, 0.42% of all votes cast.
Dayton's victory was one of just four that Minnesota Democrats have achieved out of 28 gubernatorial elections during a Democratic presidency. Despite this, and despite his narrow margin of victory in 2010, Dayton was not seen as a top Republican target. The Cook Political Report and The Rothenberg Political Report both rated the race as "safe Democratic", and Daily Kos Elections, Governing and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rated the race as "likely Democratic".

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Bill Dahn
  • * Running mate: James Vigliotti
  • Leslie Davis, activist
  • * Running mate: Gregor Soderberg
  • Mark Dayton, incumbent governor
  • * Running mate: Tina Smith, Dayton's former chief of staff

Republican primary

Until 2014, Minnesota Republicans had not had a competitive gubernatorial primary since 1924, when Theodore Christianson beat Ole Jacobson by 2.8%, taking 22.8% of the vote in a six-candidate race that saw five candidates finish in double digits. In every election since then, the nominee had won the primary by at least 17.8% and on average by 62.2%.
At the Republican State Convention on May 30–31, 2014, Jeff Johnson received the party's endorsement. Dave A. Thompson withdrew from the race and endorsed Johnson. Scott Honour, Marty Seifert and Kurt Zellers all ran in the August primary, but Johnson prevailed with 30% of the vote.

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Norm
Coleman		Keith
Downey		David
Hann		Jeff
Johnson		Julie
Rosen		Marty
Seifert		Kurt
Zellers		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–20, 2013275± 5.9%57%4%4%4%5%4%5%17%

Independence primary

The Independence Party of Minnesota state convention was held on May 17, 2014, at Minnesota State University, Mankato.

Candidates

Nominee

  • Hannah Nicollet, software developer
  • * Running mate: Tim Gieseke, businessman and candidate for the state house in 2013

Declined

Libertarian Party

The Libertarian Party of Minnesota state convention was held on April 26, 2014, in Maple Grove.

Candidates

Nominee

  • Chris Holbrook
  • * Running mate: Chris Dock

Grassroots–Legalize Cannabis Party

Candidates

Declared

General election

Debates

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton 		Merrill
Anderson 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%47%35%—18%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton 		Norm
Coleman 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–20, 20131,065± 3%52%39%—9%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton 		Kurt
Daudt 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMay 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%51%39%—10%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton 		Keith
Downey 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–20, 20131,065± 3%53%30%—18%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton 		Tom
Emmer 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMay 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%52%39%—9%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton 		Rob
Farnsworth 		OtherUndecided
SuffolkApril 24–28, 2014800± ?45%28%—27%
SurveyUSAFebruary 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%52%31%—17%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton 		David
Hann 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMay 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%51%36%—13%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton 		Scott
Honour 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%47%35%—19%
SurveyUSAJune 5–9, 20141,017± 3.1%47%37%10%6%
SuffolkApril 24–28, 2014800± ?45%28%—27%
SurveyUSAFebruary 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%53%33%—14%
Public Policy PollingOctober 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%48%38%—15%
Public Policy PollingMay 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%52%34%—15%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton 		Tim
Pawlenty 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–20, 20131,065± 3%50%42%—7%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton 		Julie
Rosen 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingOctober 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%48%36%—16%
Public Policy PollingMay 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%51%34%—15%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–20, 20131,065± 3%52%27%—21%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton 		Marty
Seifert 		OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 20143,170± 2%53%37%6%4%
Public Policy PollingJune 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%47%36%—17%
SurveyUSAJune 5–9, 20141,017± 3.1%46%38%10%6%
SuffolkApril 24–28, 2014800± ?43%32%—25%
SurveyUSAFebruary 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%51%34%—15%
Public Policy PollingOctober 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%48%37%—16%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton 		Dave A.
Thompson 		OtherUndecided
SuffolkApril 24–28, 2014800± ?43%31%—26%
SurveyUSAFebruary 25–27, 2014545 ± 4.3%53%32%—15%
Public Policy PollingOctober 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%48%37%—15%
Public Policy PollingMay 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%51%35%—13%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton 		Kurt
Zellers 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%47%37%—16%
SurveyUSAJune 5–9, 20141,017± 3.1%46%39%9%5%
SuffolkApril 24–28, 2014800± ?43%31%—26%
SurveyUSAFebruary 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%52%31%—16%
Public Policy PollingOctober 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%48%38%—14%
Public Policy PollingMay 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%53%35%—13%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–20, 20131,065± 3%52%29%—19%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Johnson won five of eight congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.
DistrictDaytonJohnsonRepresentative
45%48%Tim Walz
46%49%John Kline
46%50%Erik Paulsen
59%36%Betty McCollum
71%23%Keith Ellison
39%55%Tom Emmer
44%50%Collin Peterson
51%43%Rick Nolan