Real-estate bubble


A real-estate bubble or property bubble is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets, and it typically follows a land boom or reduced interest rates. A land boom is a rapid increase in the market price of real property, such as housing, until prices reach unsustainable levels and then decline. Market conditions during the run-up to a crash are sometimes characterized as "frothy." The questions of whether real estate bubbles can be identified and prevented, and whether they have broader macroeconomic significance, are answered differently by different schools of economic thought, as detailed below.
Bubbles in housing markets have often been more severe than stock market bubbles. Historically, equity price busts occur on average every 13 years, last for 2.5 years, and result in about a 4 percent loss in GDP. Housing price busts are less frequent, but last nearly twice as long and lead to output losses that are twice as large. A 2012 laboratory experimental study also shows that, compared to financial markets, real estate markets involve more extended boom and bust periods. Prices decline slower because the real estate market is less liquid.
The 2008 financial crisis was caused by the bursting of real estate bubbles that had begun in various countries during the 2000s.

Identification and prevention

As with other economic bubbles, there is ongoing debate about the feasibility of identifying, predicting, and preventing real estate bubbles. Speculative bubbles are characterized by sustained and systematic deviations of asset prices from their fundamental values, often driven by investor behavior and market sentiment rather than underlying economic indicators. Real estate bubbles are particularly challenging to detect in real-time due to the complex nature of property valuation and the influence of various local and global factors. While economists have developed models to estimate fundamental values—such as analyzing rental yields or comparing price-to-income ratios—accurately forecasting future bubbles remains a significant challenge.
In real estate, fundamentals can be estimated from rental yields or based on a regression of actual prices on a set of demand and/or supply variables.
American economist Robert Shiller of the Case–Shiller Home Price Index of home prices in 20 metro cities across the United States indicated on May 31, 2011 that a "Home Price Double Dip Confirmed" and British magazine The Economist, argue that [|housing market indicators] can be used to identify real estate bubbles. Some argue further that governments and central banks can and should take action to prevent bubbles from forming, or to deflate existing bubbles. Monetary reform could prevent central banks from setting interest rates too low.
A land value tax can be introduced to prevent speculation on land. Real estate bubbles direct savings towards rent seeking activities rather than other investments. A land value tax removes financial incentives to hold unused land solely for price appreciation, making more land available for productive uses. At sufficiently high levels, land value tax would cause real estate prices to fall by removing land rents that would otherwise become 'capitalized' into the price of real estate. It also encourages landowners to sell or relinquish titles to locations they are not using, thus preventing speculators from hoarding unused land.

Macroeconomic significance

Within some schools of heterodox economics, by contrast, real estate bubbles are considered of critical importance and a fundamental cause of financial crises and ensuing economic crises.
The pre-dominating economic perspective is that increases in housing prices result in little or no wealth effect, namely it does not affect the consumption behavior of households not looking to sell. The house price becoming compensation for the higher implicit rent costs for owning. Increasing house prices can have a negative effect on consumption through increased rent inflation and a higher propensity to save given expected rent increase.
In some schools of heterodox economics, notably Austrian economics and Post-Keynesian economics, real estate bubbles are seen as an example of credit bubbles, because property owners generally use borrowed money to purchase property, in the form of mortgages. These are then argued to cause financial and hence economic crises. This is first argued empirically – numerous real estate bubbles have been followed by economic slumps, and it is argued that there is a cause-effect relationship between these.
The Post-Keynesian theory of debt deflation takes a demand-side view, arguing that property owners not only feel richer but borrow to consume against the increased value of their property – by taking out a home equity line of credit, for instance; or speculate by buying property with borrowed money in the expectation that it will rise in value. When the bubble bursts, the value of the property decreases but not the level of debt. The burden of repaying or defaulting on the loan depresses aggregate demand, it is argued, and constitutes the proximate cause of the subsequent economic slump.

Housing market indicators

In attempting to identify bubbles before they burst, economists have developed a number of financial ratios and economic indicators that can be used to evaluate whether homes in a given area are fairly valued. By comparing current levels to previous levels that have proven unsustainable in the past, one can make an educated guess as to whether a given real estate market is experiencing a bubble. Indicators describe two interwoven aspects of housing bubble: a valuation component and a debt component. The valuation component measures how expensive houses are relative to what most people can afford, and the debt component measures how indebted households become in buying them for home or profit. A basic summary of the progress of housing indicators for U.S. cities is provided by Business Week. See also: real estate economics and real estate trends.

Housing affordability measures

  • The price to income ratio is the basic affordability measure for housing in a given area. It is generally the ratio of median house prices to median familial disposable incomes, expressed as a percentage or as years of income. It is sometimes compiled separately for first-time buyers and termed attainability. This ratio, applied to individuals, is a basic component of mortgage lending decisions. According to a back-of-the-envelope calculation by Goldman Sachs, a comparison of median home prices to median household income suggests that U.S. housing in 2005 was overvalued by 10%. "However, this estimate is based on an average mortgage rate of about 6%, and we expect rates to rise", the firm's economics team wrote in a recent report. According to Goldman's figures, a one-percentage-point rise in mortgage rates would reduce the fair value of home prices by 8%.
  • The deposit to income ratio is the minimum required downpayment for a typical mortgage, expressed in months or years of income. It is especially important for first-time buyers without existing home equity; if the down payment becomes too high then those buyers may find themselves "priced out" of the market. For example, this ratio was equal to one year of income in the UK.
Another variant is what the United States's National Association of Realtors calls the "housing affordability index" in its publications..
  • The affordability index measures the ratio of the actual monthly cost of the mortgage to take-home income. It is used more in the United Kingdom where nearly all mortgages are variable and pegged to bank lending rates. It offers a much more realistic measure of the ability of households to afford housing than the crude price to income ratio. However it is more difficult to calculate, and hence the price-to-income ratio is still more commonly used by pundits. In recent years, lending practices have relaxed, allowing greater multiples of income to be borrowed.
  • The median multiple measures the ratio of the median house price to the median annual household income. This measure has historically hovered around a value of 3.0 or less, but in recent years has risen dramatically, especially in markets with severe public policy constraints on land and development.
File:EconomistHomePrices20050615.jpg|thumb|right|Inflation-adjusted home prices in Japan compared to home price appreciation in the United States, Britain, and Australia

Housing debt measures

  • The housing debt to income ratio or debt-service ratio is the ratio of mortgage payments to disposable income. When the ratio gets too high, households become increasingly dependent on rising property values to service their debt. A variant of this indicator measures total home ownership costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, as a percentage of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income; for example see RBC Economics' reports for the Canadian markets.
  • The housing debt to equity ratio, also called loan to value, is the ratio of the mortgage debt to the value of the underlying property; it measures financial leverage. This ratio increases when the homeowner takes a second mortgage or home equity loan using the accumulated equity as collateral. A ratio greater than 1 implies that owner's equity is negative.

    Housing ownership and rent measures

  • Bubbles can be determined when an increase in housing prices is higher than the rise in rents. In the US, rent between 1984 and 2013 has risen steadily at about 3% per year, whereas between 1997 and 2002 housing prices rose 6% per year. Between 2011 and the third quarter of 2013, housing prices rose 5.83% and rent increased 2%.
  • The ownership ratio is the proportion of households who own their homes as opposed to renting. It tends to rise steadily with incomes. Also, governments often enact measures such as tax cuts or subsidized financing to encourage and facilitate home ownership. If a rise in ownership is not supported by a rise in incomes, it can mean either that buyers are taking advantage of low interest rates or that home loans are awarded more liberally, to borrowers with poor credit. Therefore, a high ownership ratio combined with an increased rate of subprime lending may signal higher debt levels associated with bubbles.
  • The price-to-earnings ratio or P/E ratio is the common metric used to assess the relative valuation of equities. To compute the P/E ratio for the case of a rented house, divide the price of the house by its potential earnings or net income, which is the market annual rent of the house minus expenses, which include maintenance and property taxes. This formula is:
  • The price-rent ratio is the average cost of ownership divided by the received rent income or the estimated rent :
  • The gross rental yield, a measure used in the United Kingdom, is the total yearly gross rent divided by the house price and expressed as a percentage:
  • The occupancy rate is the number of occupied housing units divided by the total number of units in a given region. A low occupancy rate means that the market is in a state of oversupply brought about by speculative construction and purchase. In this context, supply-and-demand numbers can be misleading: sales demand exceeds supply, but rent demand does not.