Paul Haenle


Paul Thomas Haenle is an American analyst and China specialist currently serving as head of Asia Pacific Policy and Strategic Competitiveness at JP Morgan. Previously he was the Maurice R. Greenberg Director’s Chair at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Education

Haenle holds a BS from Clarkson University and a MA in Asian studies from Harvard.

Career

He established Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, the Beijing-based think tank of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, at Tsinghua University in 2010.
In addition to his role at Carnegie, Haenle is also Asia Pacific Region Chair at Teneo and a senior advisor at Rice, Hadley, Gates & Manuel LLC, where he assists U.S. and foreign businesses with their cross-border business strategy, including the development of key government relationships, crisis management, and public relations. Haenle also serves as senior advisor to SAGE Worldwide, a global events and speaker company; the Royal Asiatic Society, Beijing Chapter; and the Young China Watchers, a global platform for facilitating dialogue between international and Chinese young professionals. He is also an adjunct professor at Tsinghua, where he teaches undergraduate and graduate-level courses on international relations and global governance. In 2018, Haenle was elected to the board of directors of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations.
Prior to joining Carnegie, Haenle served as the White House China director on the National Security Council under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. He was also the White House representative to the U.S. negotiating team at the Six-Party Talks from June 2007 to January 2009. During his government service, Haenle served as special assistant to Condoleezza Rice and Stephen Hadley from 2004 to 2007, and in the Pentagon as a China advisor for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Haenle is an expert on U.S.-China relations, China’s foreign and defense policy, and North Korea. He hosts CTC's biweekly "China in the World" podcast, which features a series of conversations with Chinese and international experts on China’s foreign policy & relations.
Trained as a China foreign area officer in the U.S. Army, Haenle was twice assigned to the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. He served as a U.S. Army company commander during a two-year tour to the Republic of Korea. Early assignments in the U.S. Army included postings in Germany, Desert Storm, Korea, and Kuwait. He retired from active duty as a lieutenant colonel in October 2009.
Haenle is a participant of the Task Force on U.S.-China Policy convened by Asia Society's Center on US-China Relations.

Publications

  • “Carnegie China Scholars on the Biden-Xi Meeting”
  • “Biden and Xi Meet at APEC”
  • “Vietnam’s Response to China’s Global Security Initiative”
  • “How Biden’s New Outbound Investment Executive Order Will Impact U.S.-China Relations”
  • “China’s New Diplomacy Amid Intensifying U.S.-China Competition”
  • “Negotiating U.S.-China Competition”
  • “Why Won’t China Admit That It’s Competing With the United States?”
  • “China’s Rising Influence in the Middle East”
  • “China’s View of Putin’s Grip on Power”
  • “ASEAN’s Response to China’s New Foreign Policy Initiatives”
  • “Is Europe Aligned on China?”
  • “What the Bush-Obama China Memos Reveal”
  • “Is China Providing Russia With Military Support?”
  • “The Missed Opportunity of Philippine President Marcos Jr’s First Visit to China”
  • “A Comparative Analysis of the Biden Administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy vs. the Trump Administration’s”
  • “Renewed Clashes on the China-India Border”
  • “Positive-Sum Competition in Southeast Asia”
  • “Carnegie Hosts and Producers’ Favorite Podcast Episodes of 2022”
  • “China’s Zero COVID Policy Is a Double-Edged Sword”
  • “U.S.-China Dynamics in Southeast Asia”
  • “Southeast Asia Between the United States and China”
  • “What Can Biden and Xi Achieve in Bali?”
  • “Why Tensions Over Taiwan Aren’t Likely to Die Down Soon”
  • “To Change, to Compete, or to Coexist? The United States’ Perceptions of the Communist Party of China from Mao to Now”
  • “Breaking the US-China Cycle of Escalation over Taiwan”
  • “The Paradox of the Russia-China Relationship”
  • “How Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit Has Set a New Status Quo for U.S-China Tensions”
  • “Why the U.S. Needs to Say Less and Do More on Taiwan”
  • “Think Regional, Act Local - The Better Us Approach to South-East Asia”
  • “Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Has Jeopardized the China-EU Relationship”
  • “How China Has Handled Its Strategic Dilemma Over Russia’s Invasion”
  • “China’s Ukraine Calculus Is Coming Into Focus”
  • “China’s Calculus on the Invasion of Ukraine”
  • “Why U.S.-China Relations Are Locked in a Stalemate”
  • “How the Transatlantic Relationship Has Evolved, One Year Into the Biden Administration”
  • “At Biden and Xi’s Virtual Summit, What Can Be Accomplished?”
  • “Competing with China Requires Engaging the Developing World”
  • “Why the U.S. and Chinese Militaries Aren’t Talking Much Anymore”
  • “Setting the Table for U.S.-China Strategic Competition”
  • “Realigning the Transatlantic Relationship on China”
  • "China isn't riding to rescue the Australian economy"
  • “How the World Is Responding to a Changing China”
  • “Security Concerns in Asia-Pacific Escalate Amid Coronavirus Scramble”
  • “Amid Coronavirus Pandemic, China Seeks Larger Role on World Stage”
  • “U.S.-China Cooperation on Coronavirus Hampered by Propaganda War”
  • “What the Coronavirus Means for China’s Foreign Policy”
  • "Can the United States and China Cooperate on the Coronavirus?"
  • "The United States and China See Things Differently. Can They Reach an Understanding?"
  • "Hong Kong: Continued Unrest with No Clear Path to a Resolution"
  • "U.S.-China Trade War, Light at the End of the Tunnel?"
  • "Chaos in Hong Kong: Protests and Unrest Persist"
  • "Trump Is Beijing’s Best Asset"
  • "How Has the U.S.-China Relationship Changed Over Seventy Years?"
  • "What Exactly Is the Story with China’s Rare Earths?"
  • "How Are Various Countries Responding to China’s Belt and Road Initiative?"
  • "Is This the End of Belt and Road, or Just the Beginning?"
  • "The Belt and Road Initiative: Views from Washington, Moscow, and Beijing"
  • "What Will Happen at the Second Trump-Kim Nuclear Summit?"
  • "Global Trade Outlook"
  • "A Tale of Two Cities: Singapore and Hanoi"
  • "U.S.-China Relations at the Forty-Year Mark"
  • "Tempering Expectations Ahead of the G20"
  • "China’s Deleveraging Overshadows Trade War"
  • "On Secretary of State Pompeo’s Upcoming North Korea Visit" . Translated version here.
  • "Foreign Policy Experts on the Singapore Summit and What Comes Next"
  • "Mapping Regional Agendas for the Singapore Summit"
  • "More than a Belt, More than a Road"
  • "Does China Want the Koreas to Reconcile?"
  • "China Seizes the Initiative in Complicated North Korea Diplomacy"
  • "China: Trade Tensions, Talks with North Korea and Term Limits"
  • "China’s Future Under Xi Jinping"
  • "Trump’s Wake-Up Call on China"
  • "What Will a Powerful Xi Mean For the China-U.S. Relationship?"
  • "China and the World After the 19th Party Congress"
  • "New Reformists Emerging in China"
  • "Bannon Says the U.S. Is at ‘Economic War with China’"
  • "U.S. and Chinese Scholars Take on the U.S.-China Economic Dialogue"
  • "Trump and Xi at G20 in Hamburg: Time to Abandon Illusions"
  • "The World Is Deserting Taiwan. How Should the U.S. Respond?"
  • "Shanghai Cooperation Organization at Crossroads: Views From Moscow, Beijing and New Delhi"
  • "Xi’s Vision for China’s Belt and Road Initiative"
  • "The Mirage of the Deal: Trump’s Grand Bargains with Russia and China"
  • "Don’t Call it the New Chinese Global Order " .
  • "Is the Trump Era Really the Xi Era?"
  • "How Trump’s Call With Taiwan Could Affect U.S. Goals in Asia"
  • "The Next U.S. President and Beyond"
  • "How Should Trump Deal With China, and How Should China Deal With Trump?"
  • "Will Trump Strike a Grand Bargain With China?"
  • "The Real Answer to China’s THAAD Dilemma"
  • "New Realities in the U.S.-China Relationship"
  • "Mounting Difficulties For Doing Business in Xi Jinping’s China"
  • "The Catch-22 in U.S.-Chinese Relations"
  • "A Reference Point for Internationalizing Chinese Think Tanks" Translated version here.
  • "The World in 2015"
  • "China Flexes Diplomatic Muscles to Match Growing Economic Size"
  • "Building Strategic Trust in the U.S.-China Relationship"
  • "North Korea’s Charm Offensive: New Cards, Same Player"
  • "Moving Beyond China’s Confident Rhetoric on Syria"
  • "U.S.-China Relations: Moving Beyond the Script" .
  • "Baucus Can Bring China to Congress"
  • "What Does a New Type of Great-Power Relations Mean for the United States and China?"
  • "Charm Offensive At Sea"
  • "Time to Reopen Talks With North Korea?"
  • "China Misses a Golden Opportunity in Syria" Translated version here.
  • "Xi and Abe Need to Talk"
  • "North Korea is China’s Problem Now"
  • "Moving Beyond the Script at the U.S.-China Summit"
  • "The Middle East at the U.S.-China Summit"
  • "North Korea’s Defiance May Reshape China’s Strategic Calculus"
  • "Sino-U.S. Ties Need New Approach"
  • "A New Great-Power Relationship With Beijing"
  • "The China Factor in the U.S. Presidential Election: Separating Rhetoric from Action"
  • "Overcoming Mistrust in U.S.-China Relations" .