Opinion polling for the 2018 Italian general election


In the years running up to the 2018 Italian general election, held on 4 March, various organisations carried out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in Italy. Results of such polls are given in this article. The date range is from the 2013 Italian general election, held on 24–25 February, to two weeks before the new election, 16 February 2018. Poll results are reported at the dates when the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication; if such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. Under the Italian par condicio law, publication of opinion polls is forbidden in the last two weeks of an electoral campaign.

Party vote

The data on Forza Italia prior to 16 November 2013 refer to its predecessor, The People of Freedom, which at its dissolution suffered the split of the New Centre-Right. Since the 2014 European Parliament election most opinion polls have calculated the Union of the Centre together with the NCD, even after December 2016, when the two parties parted ways. Since December 2014 results for Lega Nord have included its sister party Us with Salvini. Since November 2015 Left Ecology Freedom started to be polled as Italian Left, before finally be merged into it in February 2017. In the same month splinters from the Democratic Party and the Italian Left formed Article One, while other leftists launched the short-lived Progressive Camp. In March 2017 the NCD was transformed into Popular Alternative. In December 2017 the MDP, SI and minor groups launched a joint list named Free and Equal.
In the run-up of the election several other electoral lists were formed, notably including More Europe, Together, Power to the People, Us with Italy and the Popular Civic List. Moreover, two broader alliances were formed: the centre-left coalition and the centre-right coalition.
Some polls may include the Communist Refoundation Party instead of PaP.

Seat projections

Chamber of Deputies

  • 630 seats are available. 316 seats are needed for a majority.
  • In some polls only the 618 constituencies in Italy proper are allocated, while the 12 abroad constituencies are omitted.
DatePolling firmCSXCDXM5SLeUOthersLeadMajority
DatePolling firmLeadMajority
4 Mar 2018 12226522714238–51
15 Feb 201815129514725–144–21
14 Feb 20181562731342628117–43
13–14 Feb 201816628114526–115–35
12–14 Feb123–141264–297132–182244–6982–165–52 to –19
8 Feb 201815629414325–138–22
7 Feb 2018143296161264135–20
2 Feb 2018**15328415625–128–32
29 Jan–1 Feb 2018 134290172304118–26
25 Jan 201816226815929–106–48
25 Jan 2018**14728815528–133–28
22-25 Jan 2018130290177294113–26
19-21 Jan 2018136–176259–299139–17922–26–120–17
17-19 Jan 2018 137299161294138–17
18 Jan 201815426617027–96–50
10–11 Jan 201815226916927–100–47
6 Jan 2018 18726514026–78–51
1 Jan 2018158280157287122–36
29–31 Dec 201713427617930–97–40
22 Dec 2017138292167294125–24
21 Dec 201718726514026–78–51
19 Dec 201715128115827–123–35
30 Nov 2017 16926715324498–49
23 Nov 2017162270165258105–46
8 Nov 201716425217323479–64
27 Oct 201716224817825470–68
25 Oct 201718222118922432–95
24–25 Oct 201718024616824–66–70
20 Oct 20171812611721680–55
18 Oct 201721320917026–4–103
12 Oct 201717423817823460–78
12 Oct 201718222118922432–95

Senate of the Republic

  • 315 seats are available, plus 6 senators for life. 161 seats are needed for a majority.
  • In some polls only the 309 constituencies in Italy proper are allocated, while the 6 abroad constituencies are omitted.
DatePolling firmCSXCDXM5SLeUOthersLeadMajority
DatePolling firmLeadMajority
4 Mar 2018 601371124225–24
13–14 Feb 2018921347211–42–27
7 Feb 2018681538012273–8
1 Feb 2018771408012–60–21
29 Jan–1 Feb 2018 651508414266–11
25 Jan 2018791407713–61–21
22-25 Jan 2018611528713265–9
17-19 Jan 2018 651538213271–8
6 Jan 2018801377814657–24
1 Jan 2018821337915651–28
29–31 Dec 2017711388713–51–23
22 Dec 2017681518311258–10
23 Nov 201781135858640–26