Next Northern Ireland Assembly election


A Northern Ireland Assembly election will be held to elect 90 members to the Northern Ireland Assembly on or before 6 May 2027. After the 2022 [Northern Ireland Assembly election|Northern Ireland Assembly election] on 5 May 2022, the DUP declined to agree on the appointment of Speaker to the Assembly, preventing the formation of an Executive. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, confirmed a legal obligation to call an election if no Executive was formed by a 27 October 2022 deadline.
As no Executive was formed by this deadline, the deadline was extended by legislation in the Westminster Parliament. A deadline of 18 January 2024 was then proposed. On 31 January 2024 the DUP and UK Government announced a deal had been struck to revive the Executive, and on 3 February 2024 the Assembly swore in Sinn Fein First Minister Michelle O'Neill and DUP deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly.
This election will be the eighth since the assembly was established in 1998. Seven parties have MLAs in the seventh assembly: Sinn Féin led by Michelle O'Neill, the Unionist Party">Unionism in Ireland">Unionist Party led by Gavin Robinson, Alliance led by Naomi Long, the Ulster Unionist Party led by Jon Burrows, the Social Democratic and Labour Party led by Claire Hanna, Traditional Unionist Voice led by Jim Allister, and People Before Profit led by Richard Boyd Barrett.

Background

Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected, which is 6 May 2027; however, there are several circumstances in which the Assembly can be dissolved earlier. After the 2022 Assembly election, the DUP declined to join in forming a government due to its opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol on post-Brexit trading arrangements. If no government is formed within six months, the United Kingdom Government's Northern Ireland Secretary has to call a new election early or come up with some other solution.
No government was formed by the deadline. Rather than call a new election, Heaton-Harris introduced legislation to extend the deadline, the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Act 2022. The new deadline also passed with no resolution. Heaton-Harris produced a further extension through legislation via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation and Organ and Tissue Donation) Act 2023.
On 27 February 2023, the UK and EU announced the Windsor Framework to make changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol. It was hoped that this would lead to formation of an Assembly executive; however, the DUP boycott continued. Heaton-Harris again brought primary legislation to further extend the deadline to 8 February 2024, via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Act 2024. On 30 January, the DUP announced that they would accept a deal conditional on legislation being passed by the UK government that saw them agreeing to form an executive with Sinn Fein. A new executive was formed on 3 February 2024.

Opinion polling

Voting intention

Note: Next to the party initials at the top of the table there are the letters "N", "O", and "U". These show how the parties have chosen to designate themselves, Unionist, Nationalist or other, in the Assembly previously. This is a function of the Assembly's consociational design.

Leadership approval ratings

Michelle O'Neill

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Michelle O'Neill, Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018, First Minister of Northern Ireland since 2024 [Northern Ireland Executive Formation|3 February 2024] and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.

Jeffrey Donaldson

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party until 29 March 2024.

Naomi Long

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Naomi Long, leader of the Alliance Party since 26 October 2016 and Minister of Justice since 3 February 2024 and from 11 January 2020 to 27 October 2022.

Doug Beattie

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Doug Beattie, leader of the Ulster Unionist Party since 27 May 2021.

Colum Eastwood

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Colum Eastwood, leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party from 14 November 2015 to 5 October 2024.

Jim Allister

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jim Allister, leader of Traditional Unionist Voice since 7 December 2007.

Leadership performance ratings

The following poll asked respondents to rate the performance of political leaders in the last few months, scoring from 0% to 100% for each leader.

NI political leaders


UK and Ireland political leaders