2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Missouri
Elections were held on November 2, 2010, to determine Missouri's nine members of the United States House of Representatives. Representatives were elected for two-year terms to serve in the 112th Congress from January 3, 2011, until January 3, 2013. Primary elections were held on August 3, 2010.
Of the nine elections, the races in the 3rd and 4th districts were rated as competitive by The Cook Political Report, CQ Politics, The Rothenberg Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Seven of Missouri's nine incumbents were re-elected, while one unsuccessfully sought re-election and one did not seek re-election.
In total, six Republicans and three Democrats were elected. A total of 1,920,675 votes were cast, of which 1,103,290 were for Republican candidates, 708,064 were for Democratic candidates, 92,485 were for Libertarian Party candidates, 8,759 were for Constitution Party candidates, 7,193 were for an independent candidate and 884 were for write-in candidates.
Overview
Results of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Missouri by district:District 1
The 1st district included Ferguson, Florissant, Hazelwood, Spanish Lake, and parts of St. Louis and University City. The district's population was 54 percent black and 40 percent white ; 83 percent were high school graduates and 24 percent had received a bachelor's degree or higher. Its median income was $41,404. In the 2008 presidential election the district gave 80 percent of its vote to Democratic nominee Barack Obama and 19 percent to Republican nominee John McCain.Democrat William Lacy Clay, Jr., who took office in 2001, was the incumbent. Clay was re-elected in 2008 with 87 percent of the vote. In 2010 Clay's opponent in the general election was Republican nominee Robyn Hamlin, an insurance agent. Libertarian Party nominee Julie Stone also ran. Candice Britton also sought the Democratic nomination. Martin Baker and Marshall Works also sought the Republican nomination. Robb Cunningham also sought the Libertarian nomination.
Clay raised $693,370 and spent $635,944. Hamlin raised $23,930 and spent $24,012. Britton raised $1,813 and spent $2,026.
Prior to the election FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Clay a 100 percent chance of winning and projected that he would receive 74 percent of the vote to Hamlin's 23 percent. On election day Clay was re-elected with 74 percent of the vote to Hamlin's 24 percent. Clay was re-elected in 2012, again over Hamlin, and in 2014.
Democratic primary results
Republican primary results
Libertarian primary results
Predictions
General election results
District 2
The 2nd district included Ballwin, Chesterfield, St. Charles, Wildwood and parts of O'Fallon, St. Peters and Wentzville. The district's population was 91 percent white ; 93 percent were high school graduates and 42 percent had received a bachelor's degree or higher. Its median income was $73,641. In the 2008 presidential election the district gave 55 percent of its vote to Republican nominee John McCain and 44 percent to Democratic nominee Barack Obama.Republican Todd Akin, who took office in 2001, was the incumbent. Akin was re-elected in 2008 with 62 percent of the vote. In 2010 Akin's opponent in the general election was Democratic nominee Arthur Lieber, the co-founder of the Crossroads College Preparatory School. Libertarian Party nominee Steve Mosbacher also ran. Bill Haas and Jeffrey Lowe also sought the Republican nomination. Liz Lauber, a government and industry relations communications consultant for Wells Fargo, ended her campaign for the Republican nomination in April 2010. Lieber was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
Akin raised $767,798 and spent $825,668. Lieber raised $50,504 and spent $49,234. Haas raised $33,372 and spent $13,449. Lauber raised $6,724 and spent the same amount.
Prior to the election FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Akin a 100 percent chance of winning, and projected that he would receive 68 percent of the vote to Lieber's 29 percent. On election day Akin was re-elected with 68 percent of the vote to Lieber's 29 percent. In 2011 Lieber wrote and published a book about his campaign entitled An Unlikely Candidate: Reflections on My Run for Office. Akin unsuccessfully ran for the U.S. Senate in 2012. He was succeeded by Republican Ann Wagner.
Republican primary results
Predictions
General election results
District 3
The 3rd district included Oakville and part of St. Louis. The district's population was 85 percent white and 9 percent black ; 86 percent were high school graduates and 27 percent had received a bachelor's degree or higher. Its median income was $51,192. In the 2008 presidential election the district gave 60 percent of its vote to Democratic nominee Barack Obama and 39 percent to Republican nominee John McCain.Democrat Russ Carnahan, who took office in 2005, was the incumbent. Carnahan was re-elected in 2008 with 66 percent of the vote. In 2010 Carnahan's opponent in the general election was Republican nominee Ed Martin, a former chief of staff to Governor of Missouri Matt Blunt. Constitution Party nominee Nick Ivanovich and Libertarian Party nominee Steven Hedrick also ran. David Arnold and Edward Crim also sought the Democratic nomination. John Wayne Tucker and Rusty Wallace, a computer-aided design technician, also sought the Republican nomination.
Carnahan raised $2,127,173 and spent $2,276,619. Martin raised $1,539,980 and spent $1,514,663. Arnold raised $907 and spent $904. Tucker raised $9,125 and spent $9,124.
A poll of 400 likely voters, conducted by Ayres, McHenry & Associates on August 16, 17 and 20, 2010, found Carnahan leading with 54 percent to Martin's 38 percent, while 8 percent were undecided. In a poll of 1,089 registered voters, conducted on August 17, 2010, by We Ask America, found Carnahan leading with 48 percent to Martin's 39 percent, while 13 percent were undecided.
On election day Carnahan was re-elected with 49 percent of the vote to Martin's 47 percent. Martin conceded on November 8. Carnahan unsuccessfully sought re-election in 2012. The same year Martin unsuccessfully ran for Missouri Attorney General.
Democratic primary results
Republican primary results
Predictions
General election results
District 4
The 4th district included Sedalia and part of Jefferson City. The district's population was 91 percent white ; 85 percent were high school graduates and 17 percent had received a bachelor's degree or higher. Its median income was $42,317. In the 2008 presidential election the district gave 61 percent of its vote to Republican nominee John McCain and 38 percent to Democratic nominee Barack Obama.Democrat Ike Skelton, who took office in 1977, was the incumbent. Skelton was re-elected in 2008 with 66 percent of the vote. In 2010 Skelton's opponent in the general election was Republican nominee Vicky Hartzler, a former member of the Missouri General Assembly. Constitution Party nominee Greg Cowan and Libertarian Party nominee Jason Michael Braun also ran. Leonard Steinman, a salvage dealer and perennial candidate, also sought the Democratic nomination. Brian Clark; Arthur Madden; Eric McElroy; Jeff Parnell; Brian Riley; James Scholz; Bill Stouffer, a member of the Missouri Senate; and Roy Viessman, a former member of the Jefferson City Council, also sought the Republican nomination. Thomas Holbrook also sought the Libertarian nomination.
Skelton raised $2,923,038 and spent $3,107,552. Hartzler raised $1,373,530 and spent $1,351,176. Cowan raised $1,369 and spent $2,320. Madden raised $19,596 and spent the same amount. Riley raised $44,655 and spent $44,654. Scholz raised $31,208 and spent $31,081. Stouffer raised $464,174 and spent $460,777.
In a poll of 1,207 registered voters, conducted by We Ask America on August 17, 2010, Skelton led with 45 percent to Hartzler's 42 percent, while 13 percent were undecided. A poll of 187 registered voters, conducted by KY3 and Missouri State University between August 7 and 22, 2010, found 47 percent supported Skelton while 35 percent favored Hartzler and 2 percent were undecided. In a poll of 300 likely voters, conducted in October 2010 by Wilson Research Strategies, Hartzler and Skelton were tied with 42 percent apiece. A poll of 159 likely voters, conducted by MSU's Center for Social Sciences and Policy Research between October 20 and 27, 2010, found Skelton led with 46 percent to Hartzler's 39 percent, while 14 percent were undecided and 2 percent supported other candidates.
Prior to the election, FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Hartzler a 52 percent chance of winning and projected that she would receive 50 percent of the vote to Skelton's 48 percent. On election day, Hartzler was elected with 50 percent of the vote to Skelton's 45 percent. Hartzler was re-elected in 2012 and 2014. Skelton died in October 2013.
Democratic primary results
Republican primary results
Libertarian primary results
Predictions
General election results
District 5
The 5th district included Belton, Grandview, Raytown, and parts of Independence, Kansas City and Lee's Summit. The district's population was 64 percent white, 24 percent black and 8 percent Hispanic ; 87 percent were high school graduates and 26 percent had received a bachelor's degree or higher. Its median income was $45,213. In the 2008 presidential election the district gave 63 percent of its vote to Democratic nominee Barack Obama and 36 percent to Republican nominee John McCain.Democrat Emanuel Cleaver, who took office in 2005, was the incumbent. Cleaver was re-elected in 2008 with 64 percent of the vote. In 2010 Cleaver's opponent in the general election was Republican nominee Jacob Turk, who also ran in 2006 and 2008. Constitution Party nominee Dave Lay and Libertarian Party nominee Randall D. Langkraehr also ran. Jerry Fowler; Patrick Haake; Ron Shawd, a former car dealer; and Ralph Sheffield also sought the Republican nomination. Cleaver was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
Cleaver raised $637,380 and spent $607,575. Turk raised $274,423 and spent $258,627. In a poll of 500 likely voters, conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, found 52 percent supported Cleaver while 43 percent backed Turk. FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Cleaver a 100 percent chance of winning and projected that he would receive 59 percent of the vote to Turk's 39 percent. On election day Cleaver was re-elected with 53 percent of the vote to Turk's 44 percent. Cleaver was re-elected, again over Turk, in 2012 and 2014.