2020 United States Senate election in Montana
The 2020 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana. It was held concurrently with the 2020 [United States presidential election|2020 U.S. presidential election], as well as 2020 [United States Senate elections|other elections] to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries for both the Democratic and Republican nominations took place on June 2, 2020. Incumbent senator Steve Daines won the Republican primary, while Montana governor Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary.
Originally, this seat was projected to be a safe Republican hold. However, Bullock entered the race on the last day to file, shifting the dynamics of the contest dramatically; many political pundits then considered it a competitive race and a potential pickup for Democrats. One poll showed Bullock leading by seven points. Democrats outspent Republicans $82 million to $63 million on this race; it was one of the most expensive Senate races in the 2020 cycle. On Election Day, Daines prevailed by a relatively comfortable 10% margin following a trend of Republican Senate candidates outperforming expectations.
Despite his loss, Bullock did outperform Biden, who lost Montana by a 16.4% margin. He also flipped two counties won by Donald Trump in the presidential contest — Lewis and Clark and Roosevelt.
This election marked the first time since 2000 where Montana voted for a Republican governor, president, and senator all on the same ballot. As the Green Party was removed from the ballot and both Libertarian nominees withdrew, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no third-party candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana. This was the first time ever that an incumbent Republican senator was re-elected to this seat.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Steve Daines, incumbent U.S. senator
Eliminated in primary
- John Driscoll, former Democratic Speaker of the Montana House of Representatives
- Daniel Larson, hardware store manager
Democratic primary
Following Steve Bullock's entry shortly before the March 9 filing deadline, several Democrats dropped from the race.Candidates
Nominee
- Steve Bullock, incumbent governor of Montana and former candidate for president of the United States in 2020
Eliminated in primary
- John Mues, nuclear engineer and U.S. Navy veteran
Withdrawn
- Jack Ballard, former professor at Montana State University Billings '
- Wilmot Collins, mayor of Helena '
- Mike Knoles, mathematician, physicist, and data analyst ' '
- Cora Neumann, public health expert and founder of the Global First Ladies Alliance
- Josh Seckinger, fishing guide ''''
Declined
- Michael Punke, writer and former U.S. ambassador to the World Trade Organization
- Brian Schweitzer, former governor of Montana
- Kathleen Williams, former state representative and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2018
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
After Susan Geise officially withdrew, the Montana Libertarian Party could name a replacement candidate for the general election. However, during a meeting to select a replacement candidate, a majority of party officials selected not to have a replacement candidate, with "none of the above" winning the most votes.Withdrawn
- Eric Fulton, Republican candidate for District 65 of the Montana House of Representatives in 2014
- Susan Geise, Lewis and Clark County commissioner and former chair of the Montana Republican Party
Green Party
Disqualified
- Wendie Fredrickson, former audit reviewer for Montana State Department of Public Health and Human Services
Eliminated in primary
- Dennis Daneke, retired college professor
General election
Polling
Graphical summaryAggregate polls
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Steve Daines | Steve Bullock | Other / Undecided |
| Change Research | October 29 – November 2, 2020 | 920 | ± 3.5% | 50% | 46% | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 26–27, 2020 | 886 | ± 3.3% | 47% | 48% | 6% |
| The Progress Campaign (D) | October 25, 2020 | – | – | 48% | 48% | – |
| Montana State University Billings | October 19–24, 2020 | 546 | ± 4.2% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | October 18–20, 2020 | 758 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 46% | 6% |
| Strategies 360 | October 15–20, 2020 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| RMG Research | October 15–18, 2020 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 49% | 47% | 5% |
| RMG Research | October 15–18, 2020 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| RMG Research | October 15–18, 2020 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 9–10, 2020 | 798 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Emerson College | October 4–7, 2020 | 500 | ± 3.7% | 52% | 43% | 6% |
| Data For Progress (D) | September 30 – October 5, 2020 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 47% | 48% | 4% |
| Montana State University Bozeman | September 14 – October 2, 2020 | 1,609 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | September 14–16, 2020 | 625 | ± 4.8% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates | August 30 – September 5, 2020 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 50% | 47% | 3% |
| Emerson College | July 31 – August 2, 2020 | 584 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Spry Strategies (R) | July 11–16, 2020 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | July 11–13, 2020 | 873 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 47% | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 9–10, 2020 | 1,224 | ± 2.8% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| University of Montana | June 17–26, 2020 | 517 | ± 4.3% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Montana State University Bozeman | April 10–27, 2020 | 459 | ± 4.6% | 39% | 46% | 15% |
| The Progress Campaign (D) | April 14–21, 2020 | 712 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | March 12–13, 2020 | 903 | ± 3.3% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.
Steve Daines vs. Steve Bullock, Wilmot Collins, Mike Knoles, Cora Neumann, and John Mues
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Steve Daines | Democratic candidates |
| University of Montana | February 12–22, 2020 | 498 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 53% |
Steve Daines vs. Jack Ballard, Wilmot Collins, and John Mues
| Poll source | Date administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Steve Daines | Democratic candidates |
| University of Montana | September 26 – October 3, 2019 | 303 | ± 5.6% | 64% | 36% |