2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
The 2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses took place on February 1 in the U.S. state of Iowa, traditionally marking the Republican Party's first nominating contest in their series of Republican Party presidential primaries|presidential primaries] ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
The Democratic Party held its own Iowa caucuses on the same day.
Ted Cruz was able to defeat Donald Trump in the Iowa Caucus by winning over Evangelical caucus-goers; Cruz won 51,666 caucus votes or 27.6%, giving him a net gain of one delegate over Trump. Cruz visited all 99 counties of Iowa and held small events. Cruz outperformed his polling average, which predicted a narrow Trump victory in the caucus.
Following poor performances in the caucuses, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum suspended their campaigns. Both Huckabee and Santorum had previously won the caucus in 2008 and 2012 respectively.
Procedure
According to the Republican Party of Iowa's bylaws, if more than one candidate is nominated at the Republican National Convention, all of Iowa's delegates are bound to vote "proportionally in accordance with the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses" on the first ballot, even if the candidate has withdrawn from the race.The ballot is a blank piece of paper, and the candidates that voters may vote for in the non-binding preference poll included the following:
- Jeb Bush
- Ben Carson
- Chris Christie
- Ted Cruz
- Carly Fiorina
- Jim Gilmore
- John Kasich
- Marco Rubio
- Donald Trump
- Rand Paul
- Rick Santorum
- Mike Huckabee
Caucus operations
The caucuses began at 7:00 PM local time across 1,681 precincts statewide. After the selection of caucus chairs and secretaries, campaign representatives made speeches supporting their candidates before voters cast their preferences on paper ballots. The 2016 Republican caucuses set a new turnout record with 186,932 participants, significantly higher than the 121,503 who participated in 2012.Campaign
The Iowa caucuses required extensive ground organization and retail politics from the candidates. Ted Cruz's campaign pursued a traditional grassroots approach, completing the "Full Grassley" by visiting all 99 counties in Iowa while building relationships with evangelical and conservative leaders. His campaign utilized sophisticated data analytics and microtargeting to identify and turn out likely supporters.Donald Trump opted for a less conventional strategy, focusing on large rallies and earned media coverage that drew thousands of attendees across the state. However, questions persisted about whether his unorthodox approach could successfully convert rally attendance into caucus participation from first-time voters.
Marco Rubio positioned himself as an electable conservative alternative, particularly appealing to suburban voters and party regulars. His campaign emphasized his youth and vision for a "New American Century," gaining momentum in the final weeks before the caucuses.
Forums and debates
November 20, 2015 – Des Moines, IowaThe Presidential Family Forum was held in the Community Choice Credit Union Convention Center in Des Moines, Iowa. Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Rick Santorum attended the forum hosted by evangelical Christian advocacy group The Family Leader. It was hosted by politician and political activist Bob Vander Plaats and moderated by political consultant and pollster Frank Luntz. Protesters interrupted the beginning of the event and were removed by police.
January 28, 2016 – Des Moines, Iowa
The seventh debate was the second debate to air on Fox News. As in Fox's first debate, the moderators were Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly, and Chris Wallace. This was the last debate before actual voting began with the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016. Due to personality conflicts with Fox News, Donald Trump opted out of the debate.
Endorsements
Cruz secured several influential endorsements that proved crucial to his victory, including Congressman Steve King, who represented Iowa's 4th congressional district, and Bob Vander Plaats, president of The Family Leader, a prominent evangelical organization.Trump notably received limited support from Iowa Republican officials, though he led most pre-caucus polls. Meanwhile, Rubio gained important momentum when he received the endorsement of the Des Moines Register and other newspapers in the closing weeks of the campaign.
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
| Caucus results | February 1, 2016 | Ted Cruz 27.64% | Donald Trump 24.30% | Marco Rubio 23.12% | Ben Carson 9.30%, Rand Paul 4.54%, Jeb Bush 2.80%, Carly Fiorina 1.86%, John Kasich 1.86%, Mike Huckabee 1.79%, Chris Christie 1.76%, Rick Santorum 0.95%, Jim Gilmore 0.01%, Other 0.06% |
| Emerson College Margin of error: ± 5.6% Sample size: 298 | January 29–31, 2016 | Donald Trump 27.3% | Ted Cruz 25.6% | Marco Rubio 21.6% | Mike Huckabee 4.7%, Jeb Bush 3.8%, John Kasich 3.8%, Rand Paul 3.4%, Ben Carson 3.4%, Chris Christie 3.2%, Carly Fiorina 1.7%, Rick Santorum 0.5%, Undecided 1% |
| Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 3.3% Sample size: 890 | January 25–31, 2016 | Donald Trump 31% | Ted Cruz 24% | Marco Rubio 17% | Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Not decided 3% |
| Opinion Savvy Margin of error: ± 3.2% Sample size: 887 | January 29–30, 2016 | Donald Trump 20.1% | Ted Cruz 19.4% | Marco Rubio 18.6% | Ben Carson 9.0%, Rand Paul 8.6%, Jeb Bush 4.9%, Mike Huckabee 4.4%, John Kasich 4.0%, Carly Fiorina 3.8%, Chris Christie 3.0%, Rick Santorum 2.1%, Undecided 2.2% |
| Des Moines Register/ Bloomberg/Selzer Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 602 | January 26–29, 2016 | Donald Trump 28% | Ted Cruz 23% | Marco Rubio 15% | Ben Carson 10%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Jeb Bush 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jim Gimore 0%, Undecided 2%, Uncommitted 3% |
| Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 780 | January 26–27, 2016 | Donald Trump 31% | Ted Cruz 23% | Marco Rubio 14% | Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gimore 1%, Undecided 2% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 415 | January 24–26, 2016 | Donald Trump 32% | Ted Cruz 25% | Marco Rubio 18% | Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 4%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Other 0%, Undecided 3% |
| Monmouth University Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 500 | January 23–26, 2016 | Donald Trump 30% | Ted Cruz 23% | Marco Rubio 16% | Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 4%, Rand Paul 3%, John Kasich 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 0%, Undecided 3% |
| ARG Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400 | January 21–24, 2016 | Donald Trump 33% | Ted Cruz 26% | Marco Rubio 11% | Ben Carson 7%, Chris Christie 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Jeb Bush 3%, John Kasich 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 1%, Undecided 5% |
| Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 3.8% Sample size: 651 | January 18–24, 2016 | Donald Trump 31% | Ted Cruz 29% | Marco Rubio 13% | Ben Carson 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Not decided 2% |
| ISU/WHO-HD Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 283 | January 5–22, 2016 | Ted Cruz 25.8% | Donald Trump 18.9% | Ben Carson 13.4% | Marco Rubio 12.3%, Rand Paul 6.9%, Jeb Bush 3.8%, Mike Huckabee 3.7%, Carly Fiorina 1.1%, Rick Santorum <1%, Chris Christie <1%, John Kasich <1% |
| Fox News Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 378 | January 18–21, 2016 | Donald Trump 34% | Ted Cruz 23% | Marco Rubio 12% | Ben Carson 7%, Rand Paul 6%, Chris Christie 4%, Jeb Bush 4%, John Kasich 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Other 1%, Don't Know 2% |
| CBS/YouGov Margin of error: ± 5.9% Sample size: 492 | January 18–21, 2016 | Donald Trump 39% | Ted Cruz 34% | Marco Rubio 13% | Ben Carson 5%, Rand Paul 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Jeb Bush 1%, John Kasich 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No Preference 0% |
| Emerson College Margin of error: ± 5.9% Sample size: 271 | January 18–20, 2016 | Donald Trump 33.1% | Ted Cruz 22.8% | Marco Rubio 14.2% | Ben Carson 9.1%, Chris Christie 5.4%, Jeb Bush 5.1%, John Kasich 2.9%, Rand Paul 2.7%, Carly Fiorina 2.1%, Mike Huckabee 1.7%, Undecided 1% |
| CNN/ORC Margin of error: ± 6.0% Sample size: 266 | January 15–20, 2016 | Donald Trump 37% | Ted Cruz 26% | Marco Rubio 14% | Ben Carson 6%, Jeb Bush 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 1% |
| Monmouth College/KBUR/Douglas Fulmer & Associates Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 687 | January 18–19, 2016 | Ted Cruz 27% | Donald Trump 25% | Ben Carson 11% | Marco Rubio 9%, Jeb Bush 7%, Chris Christie 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rand Paul 3%, John Kasich 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Undecided 4% |
| Loras College Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 500 | January 13–18, 2016 | Donald Trump 26% | Ted Cruz 25% | Marco Rubio 13% | Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 6%, John Kasich 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Undecide 7% |
| Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 530 | January 8–10, 2016 | Donald Trump 28% | Ted Cruz 26% | Marco Rubio 13% | Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 6%, Chris Christie 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, John Kasich 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 2% |
| DM Register/Bloomberg Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 500 | January 7–10, 2016 | Ted Cruz 25% | Donald Trump 22% | Marco Rubio 12% | Ben Carson 11%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 1% |
| ARG Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 600 | January 6–10, 2016 | Donald Trump 29% | Ted Cruz 25% | Marco Rubio 10% | Ben Carson 8%, Chris Christie 6%, Rand Paul 4%, Jeb Bush 3%, John Kasich 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Other 1%, Undecided 5% |
| Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 602 | January 5–10, 2016 | Donald Trump 31% | Ted Cruz 29% | Marco Rubio 15% | Ben Carson 7%, Chris Christie 4%, Jeb Bush 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 2%, John Kasich 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Not decided 5% |
| Fox News Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 504 | January 4–7, 2016 | Ted Cruz 27% | Donald Trump 23% | Marco Rubio 15% | Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Other 1%, Undecided 2% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 456 | January 2–7, 2016 | Ted Cruz 28% | Donald Trump 24% | Marco Rubio 13% | Ben Carson 11%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Other 1%, Undecided 3% |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
| Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 440 | December 18–21, 2015 | Donald Trump 31% | Ted Cruz 31% | Marco Rubio 9% | Ben Carson 7%, Jeb Bush 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Chris Christie 2%, John Kasich 2%, George Pataki 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Unsure 5% |
| CBS News/YouGov Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 1252 | December 14–17, 2015 | Ted Cruz 40% | Donald Trump 31% | Marco Rubio 12% | Ben Carson 6%, Jeb Bush 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, No preference 0% |
| Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 522 | December 10–13, 2015 | Donald Trump 28% | Ted Cruz 25% | Marco Rubio 14% | Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 7%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, Undecided 1% |
| Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 3.3% Sample size: 874 | December 4–13, 2015 | Donald Trump 28% | Ted Cruz 27% | Marco Rubio 14% | Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, DK 3% |
| Loras College Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 499 | December 7–10, 2015 | Ted Cruz 29.7% | Donald Trump 23.4% | Ben Carson 10.8% | Marco Rubio 10.6%, Jeb Bush 6.2%, Carly Fiorina 3.4%, Rand Paul 2.4%, Mike Huckabee 1.8%, John Kasich 1.0%, Rick Santorum 1.0%, Chris Christie 0.4%, Lindsey Graham 0.0%, Undecided 9.0% |
| Fox News Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 450 | December 7–10, 2015 | Ted Cruz 28% | Donald Trump 26% | Marco Rubio 13% | Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Uncommitted 1%, Other 1%, DK 3% |
| DMR/Bloomberg Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400 | December 7–10, 2015 | Ted Cruz 31% | Donald Trump 21% | Ben Carson 13% | Marco Rubio 10%, Jeb Bush 6%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 3%, John Kasich 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Uncommitted 3%, Undecided 4% |
| Monmouth University Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 425 | December 3–6, 2015 | Ted Cruz 24% | Donald Trump 19% | Marco Rubio 17% | Ben Carson 13%, Jeb Bush 6%, Rand Paul 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, John Kasich 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham <1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Uncommitted 1%, Undecided 4% |
| CNN/ORC Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 552 | November 28- December 6, 2015 | Donald Trump 33% | Ted Cruz 20% | Ben Carson 16% | Marco Rubio 11%, Jeb Bush 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No one 1%, Someone else 1%, No opinion 1% |
| Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 600 | November 16–22, 2015 | Donald Trump 25% | Ted Cruz 23% | Ben Carson 18% | Marco Rubio 13%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 1%, George Pataki 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, DK/NA 2% |
| CBS News/YouGov Margin of error: ± 6.2% Sample size: ? | November 15–19, 2015 | Donald Trump 30% | Ted Cruz 21% | Ben Carson 19% | Marco Rubio 11%, Jeb Bush 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Chris Christie 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, George Pataki 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Jim Gilmore 0% |
| Iowa State University/WHO-HD Margin of error: ± ? Sample size: 518 | November 2–15, 2015 | Ben Carson 27% | Marco Rubio 17% | Donald Trump 15% | Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, John Kasich 1%, Chris Christie 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Lindsey Graham 0% |
| CNN/ORC Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 548 | October 29 – November 4, 2015 | Donald Trump 25% | Ben Carson 23% | Marco Rubio 13% | Ted Cruz 11%, Jeb Bush 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No opinion 3% |
| Gravis Marketing/One America News Network Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 356 | October 30 – November 2, 2015 | Donald Trump 29.4% | Ben Carson 22.4% | Marco Rubio 18.0% | Ted Cruz 8.5%, Jeb Bush 6.0%, Carly Fiorina 5.2%, John Kasich 3.1%, Chris Christie 2.4%, Rand Paul 1.8%, Bobby Jindal 1.5%, Mike Huckabee 1.1%, Rick Santorum 0.4%, Lindsey Graham 0.3% |
| Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 3.9% Sample size: 638 | October 30 – November 1, 2015 | Donald Trump 22% | Ben Carson 21% | Ted Cruz 14% | Marco Rubio 10%, Bobby Jindal 6%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Jeb Bush 5%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 1% |
| KBUR/Monmouth University Margin of error: ± 3.37% Sample size: 874 | October 29–31, 2015 | Ben Carson 27.5% | Donald Trump 20.4% | Ted Cruz 15.1% | Marco Rubio 10.1%, Jeb Bush 9.0%, Carly Fiorina 4.1%, Lindsey Graham 0.2%, Mike Huckabee 1.7%, John Kasich 1.9%, Rand Paul 1.6%, Chris Christie 2.3%, Bobby Jindal 1.3%, Rick Santorum 0.7%, Jim Gilmore 0.3%, George Pataki 0%, Undecided 3.8% |
| Monmouth University Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400 | October 22–25, 2015 | Ben Carson 32% | Donald Trump 18% | Ted Cruz 10% | Marco Rubio 10%, Jeb Bush 8%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Rand Paul 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 0%, Uncommitted 1%, Undecided 5% |
| Loras College Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 500 | October 19–22, 2015 | Ben Carson 30.6% | Donald Trump 18.6% | Marco Rubio 10.0% | Jeb Bush 6.8%, Ted Cruz 6.2%, Bobby Jindal 4.6%, Carly Fiorina 2.4%, Chris Christie 1.8%, Rand Paul 1.8%, John Kasich 1.4%, Mike Huckabee 1.2%, Rick Santorum 0.8%, Lindsey Graham 0.4%, George Pataki 0%, Undecided 12.8% |
| CBS News/YouGov Margin of error: ± 6.5% Sample size: ? | October 15–22, 2015 | Donald Trump 27% | Ben Carson 27% | Ted Cruz 12% | Marco Rubio 9%, Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 3% |
| DMR/Bloomberg Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 401 | October 16–21, 2015 | Ben Carson 28% | Donald Trump 19% | Ted Cruz 10% | Marco Rubio 9%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, John Kasich 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Not sure 7%, Uncommitted 3% |
| Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 4.1% Sample size: 574 | October 14–20, 2015 | Ben Carson 28% | Donald Trump 20% | Marco Rubio 13% | Ted Cruz 10%, Rand Paul 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, John Kasich 3%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 3% |
| NBC/WSJ Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 431 | October 2015 | Donald Trump 24% | Ben Carson 19% | Carly Fiorina 8% | Jeb Bush 7%, Ted Cruz 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Bobby Jindal 6%, Mike Huckabee 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Chris Christie 4%, John Kasich 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, George Pataki <1%, Jim Gilmore <1%, Undecided 7% |
| Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 454 | October 2, 2015 | Donald Trump 18.8% | Ben Carson 14.1% | Ted Cruz 10.6% | Carly Fiorina 9.7%, Marco Rubio 8.9%, Jeb Bush 6.9%, John Kasich 2.6%, Rand Paul 2.4%, Mike Huckabee 1.8%, Lindsey Graham 1.8%, Bobby Jindal 1.7%, Chris Christie 1.4%, Rick Santorum 1.3%, George Pataki 0.3%, Unsure 17.9% |
| Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 488 | September 18–20, 2015 | Donald Trump 24% | Ben Carson 17% | Carly Fiorina 13% | Ted Cruz 8%, Marco Rubio 8%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Jeb Bush 6%, Scott Walker 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Bobby Jindal 4%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Undecided 3% |
| CBS News/YouGov Margin of error: ± 5.7% Sample size: 705 | September 3–10, 2015 | Donald Trump 29% | Ben Carson 25% | Ted Cruz 10% | Marco Rubio 6%, Scott Walker 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Jeb Bush 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Rick Perry 0%, No preference 4% |
| Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 3.0% Sample size: 1038 | August 27 – September 8, 2015 | Donald Trump 27% | Ben Carson 21% | Ted Cruz 9% | Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, John Kasich 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Scott Walker 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 4% |
| NBC News/Marist Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 390 | August 26 – September 2, 2015 | Donald Trump 29% | Ben Carson 22% | Jeb Bush 6% | Carly Fiorina 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Scott Walker 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Chris Christie 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rick Perry 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 8% |
| Gravis Marketing/One America Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 507 | August 29–31, 2015 | Donald Trump 31.7% | Ben Carson 15.8% | Ted Cruz 6.9% | Marco Rubio 5.8%, Scott Walker 5.6%, Bobby Jindal 5.2%, Carly Fiorina 4.6%, Jeb Bush 4.1%, Mike Huckabee 2.6%, Chris Christie 2.0%, John Kasich 1.4%, Rand Paul 1.3%, Rick Perry 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.6%, Lindsey Graham 0.4%, George Pataki 0.1%, Undecided 10.9% |
| Monmouth University Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 405 | August 27–30, 2015 | Donald Trump 23% | Ben Carson 23% | Carly Fiorina 10% | Ted Cruz 9%, Scott Walker 7%, Jeb Bush 5%, John Kasich 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Perry 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 0%, Undecided 5% |
| Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400 | August 23–26, 2015 | Donald Trump 23% | Ben Carson 18% | Ted Cruz 8% | Scott Walker 8%, Jeb Bush 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Chris Christie 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 0%, Undecided 10% |
| CNN/ORC Margin of error: ± 2% Sample size: 2,014 | August 7–11, 2015 | Donald Trump 22% | Ben Carson 14% | Scott Walker 9% | Ted Cruz 8%, Carly Fiorina 7%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Someone else 0%, No one 2%, No opinion 4% |
| NBC/Marist Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 342 | July 14–21, 2015 | Scott Walker 19% | Donald Trump 17% | Jeb Bush 12% | Ben Carson 8%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Chris Christie 2%, John Kasich 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 14% |
| Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 3.8% Sample size: 666 | June 20–29, 2015 | Scott Walker 18% | Ben Carson 10% | Donald Trump 10% | Ted Cruz 9%, Rand Paul 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Marco Rubio 7%, Mike Huckabee 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Bobby Jindal 3%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, George Pataki 0%, DK/NA 5% |
| Morning Consult Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 265 | May 31 – June 8, 2015 | Scott Walker 18% | Jeb Bush 10% | Mike Huckabee 10% | Rand Paul 10%, Marco Rubio 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Ben Carson 5%, Donald Trump 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Don't know/No opinion/Refused 21%, Someone else 3% |
| Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 364 | May 28–29, 2015 | Scott Walker 17% | Marco Rubio 13% | Ben Carson 12% | Jeb Bush 10%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Ted Cruz 6%, Rick Santorum 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Unsure 15% |
| Des Moines Register Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 402 | May 25–29, 2015 | Scott Walker 17% | Ben Carson 10% | Rand Paul 10% | Jeb Bush 9%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rick Santorum 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Donald Trump 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Uncommitted 4%, Not sure 7% |
| Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 3.8% Sample size: 667 | April 25 – May 4, 2015 | Scott Walker 21% | Rand Paul 13% | Marco Rubio 13% | Ted Cruz 12%, Mike Huckabee 11%, Ben Carson 7%, Jeb Bush 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Don't know/No answer 6% |
| Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 462 | April 23–26, 2015 | Scott Walker 23% | Marco Rubio 13% | Jeb Bush 12% | Mike Huckabee 10%, Rand Paul 10%, Ted Cruz 8%, Ben Carson 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Undecided 8% |
| Loras College Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 509 | April 21–23, 2015 | Scott Walker 12.6% | Marco Rubio 10% | Jeb Bush 9.6% | Mike Huckabee 8.6%, Ted Cruz 6.5%, Ben Carson 6.3%, Rand Paul 6.3%, Chris Christie 5.1%, Rick Santorum 3.5%, Donald Trump 3.1%, Rick Perry 2.6%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, John Kasich 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Undecided 22.8% |
| Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 388 | April 13, 2015 | Jeb Bush 16% | Scott Walker 13% | Marco Rubio 12% | Ben Carson 9%, Rand Paul 9%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Undecided 17% |
| Opinion Savvy Margin of error: ± 4.16% Sample size: 552 | March 20, 2015 | Scott Walker 29% | Ben Carson 14% | Jeb Bush 12% | Mike Huckabee 11%, Ted Cruz 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, Donald Trump 3%, Other/Undecided 10% |
| Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 3.9% Sample size: 623 | February 16–23, 2015 | Scott Walker 25% | Rand Paul 13% | Ben Carson 11% | Mike Huckabee 11%, Jeb Bush 10%, Ted Cruz 5%, Marco Rubio 4%, Chris Christie 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 0%, Unsure 9% |
| Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 343 | February 12–13, 2015 | Scott Walker 24% | Jeb Bush 10% | Rand Paul 10% | Chris Christie 9%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Marco Rubio 7%, Rick Santorum 6%, Ben Carson 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Unsure 15% |
| NBC News/Marist Margin of error: ± 5.5% Sample size: 320 | February 3–10, 2015 | Mike Huckabee 17% | Jeb Bush 16% | Scott Walker 15% | Chris Christie 9%, Rand Paul 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rick Santorum 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Ted Cruz 2%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Undecided 14% |
| Selzer & Co. Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 402 | January 26–29, 2015 | Scott Walker 15% | Rand Paul 14% | Mitt Romney 13% | Mike Huckabee 10%, Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ted Cruz 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Marco Rubio 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Donald Trump 1%, Mike Pence 0%, Uncommitted 2%, Not sure 5% |
| Selzer & Co. Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 402 | January 26–29, 2015 | Scott Walker 16% | Rand Paul 15% | Mike Huckabee 13% | Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 6%, Ted Cruz 6%, Rick Santorum 5%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Donald Trump 1%, Mike Pence 0%, Uncommitted 3%, Not sure 5% |
| Loras College Margin of error: ± 5.5% Sample size: 316 | January 21–26, 2015 | Mitt Romney 13.7% | Mike Huckabee 12.5% | Ben Carson 10.5% | Jeb Bush 9.9%, Scott Walker 8.3%, Rand Paul 6.7%, Ted Cruz 5.1%, Marco Rubio 4.2%, Chris Christie 3.8%, Rick Santorum 3.8%, Rick Perry 2.9%, Bobby Jindal 1.6%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Lindsey Graham 0.3% Undecided 14.7% |
| Loras College Margin of error: ± 5.5% Sample size: 316 | January 21–26, 2015 | Mike Huckabee 14.4% | Jeb Bush 13.1% | Ben Carson 12.8% | Scott Walker 9.9%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 5.4%, Ted Cruz 5.4%, Marco Rubio 4.2%, Rick Santorum 3.8%, Rick Perry 3.2%, Bobby Jindal 1.6%, Carly Fiorina 1.3%, John Kasich 1.3%, Lindsey Graham 0.6% Undecided 16% |
| Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 3% Sample size: 404 | January 5–7, 2015 | Mitt Romney 21% | Jeb Bush 14% | Scott Walker 10% | Mike Huckabee 9%, Rand Paul 8%, Ted Cruz 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Paul Ryan 5%, Marco Rubio 4%, Undecided 18% |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
| Fox News Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 329 | October 28–30, 2014 | Mike Huckabee 13% | Ben Carson 12% | Paul Ryan 9% | Jeb Bush 8%, Rand Paul 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Ted Cruz 7%, Rick Santorum 6%, Marco Rubio 5%, Scott Walker 5%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rob Portman 0%, Other 1%, None of the above 4%, Don't know 10% |
| Reuters/Ipsos Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 602 | October 23–29, 2014 | Mitt Romney 17% | Paul Ryan 13% | Chris Christie 12% | Jeb Bush 10%, Scott Walker 10%, Rand Paul 8%, Ted Cruz 7%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rick Santorum 6%, Rick Perry 5%, Wouldn't vote 7% |
| Selzer & Co. Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 425 | October 1–7, 2014 | Mitt Romney 17% | Ben Carson 11% | Rand Paul 10% | Mike Huckabee 9%, Paul Ryan 8%, Ted Cruz 7%, Rick Perry 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Jeb Bush 4%, Scott Walker 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Marco Rubio 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, John Kasich 1%, Mike Pence 0%, Rob Portman 0%, Uncommitted 1%, Not sure 9% |
| CNN/ORC Margin of error: ± 5.5% Sample size: 310 | September 8–10, 2014 | Mike Huckabee 21% | Paul Ryan 12% | Rand Paul 7% | Jeb Bush 6%, Chris Christie 6%, Rick Perry 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, Scott Walker 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Rick Santorum 3% |
| Suffolk University Margin of error: ± 6.83% Sample size: 206 | August 23–26, 2014 | Mike Huckabee 13.11% | Chris Christie 10.68% | Rick Perry 8.74% | Jeb Bush 7.28%, Rand Paul 6.8%, Paul Ryan 6.31%, Rick Santorum 5.83%, Marco Rubio 5.34%, Ted Cruz 4.85%, Scott Walker 4.37%, Bobby Jindal 2.91%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 0.97%, John Kasich 0.97%, Other 4.37%, Undecided 16.99%, Refused 0.49% |
| Suffolk University Margin of error: ± 6.83% Sample size: 206 | August 23–26, 2014 | Mitt Romney 35.29% | Mike Huckabee 8.82% | Chris Christie 6.47% | Rick Santorum 5.88%, Ted Cruz 5.29%, Rand Paul 5.29%, Jeb Bush 4.71, Rick Perry 4.71%, Paul Ryan 4.12%, Scott Walker 3.53%, Marco Rubio 2.35%, Bobby Jindal 1.76%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 1.18%, John Kasich 0.59%, Undecided 10% |
| NBC News/Marist Margin of error: ± 4.1% Sample size: 558 | July 7–13, 2014 | Jeb Bush 12% | Rand Paul 12% | Paul Ryan 11% | Rick Santorum 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Ted Cruz 7%, Rick Perry 7%, Marco Rubio 7%, Scott Walker 5%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Undecided 20% |
| Vox Populi Polling Margin of error: ± 6.6% Sample size: 222 | June 4–5, 2014 | Jeb Bush 18% | Mike Huckabee 15% | Paul Ryan 13% | Rand Paul 12%, Marco Rubio 11%, Rick Santorum 10%, Ted Cruz 9%, Chris Christie 6%, Scott Walker 6% |
| Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 5.6% Sample size: 303 | May 15–19, 2014 | Mike Huckabee 20% | Ted Cruz 15% | Jeb Bush 12% | Rand Paul 10%, Chris Christie 9%, Paul Ryan 8%, Scott Walker 6%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Someone else/Not sure 13% |
| The Daily Caller/Vox Populi Polling Margin of error: ± 8.4% Sample size: 168 | April 22–24, 2014 | Mike Huckabee 20% | Paul Ryan 19% | Jeb Bush 18% | Ted Cruz 9%, Marco Rubio 9%, Rand Paul 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Scott Walker 6%, Joe Scarborough 4% |
| Magellan Strategies Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 330 | April 14–15, 2014 | Jeb Bush 17% | Mike Huckabee 17% | Chris Christie 14% | Rand Paul 11%, Ted Cruz 10%, Scott Walker 8%, John Kasich 5%, Marco Rubio 2%, Undecided 16% |
| Loras College Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 600 | April 7–8, 2014 | Mike Huckabee 14.7% | Jeb Bush 10.7% | Rand Paul 8.5% | Paul Ryan 8.3%, Chris Christie 8%, Ted Cruz 6.2%, Marco Rubio 4.7%, Rick Santorum 4.7%, Scott Walker 4.7%, Rick Perry 3%, John Kasich 0.7%, Other 0.7%, Undecided 23.8% |
| Suffolk University Margin of error: ± 8.7% Sample size: 127 | April 3–8, 2014 | Mike Huckabee 11.02% | Jeb Bush 10.24% | Rand Paul 10.24% | Ted Cruz 9.45%, Ben Carson 8.66%, Chris Christie 7.09%, Paul Ryan 6.3%, Sarah Palin 5.51%, Condoleezza Rice 5.51%, Marco Rubio 5.51%, Rick Santorum 5.51%, Scott Walker 5.51%, Bobby Jindal 3.15%, Rick Perry 3.15%, Undecided 3.15% |
| WPA Research Margin of error: ± ? Sample size: 402 | March 30, 2014 | Mike Huckabee 14% | Rand Paul 10% | Scott Walker 8% | Jeb Bush 7%, Ted Cruz 7%, Paul Ryan 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Rick Santorum 5%, Rick Perry 3%, Marco Rubio 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Other 2%, Undecided 26% |
| Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 5.8% Sample size: 283 | February 20–23, 2014 | Mike Huckabee 17% | Rand Paul 14% | Jeb Bush 13% | Chris Christie 10%, Ted Cruz 10%, Paul Ryan 9%, Bobby Jindal 7%, Scott Walker 7%, Marco Rubio 3%, Other/Undecided 11% |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
| Cygnal Margin of error: ± 2.37% Sample size: 1,705 | July 10–12, 2013 | Marco Rubio 11.4% | Rand Paul 10.5% | Paul Ryan 9.3% | Jeb Bush 8.7%, Chris Christie 7.7%, Rick Santorum 6.7%, Ted Cruz 6.1%, Scott Walker 2.1%, Bobby Jindal 1.3%, Undecided 36.3% |
| Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 6.2% Sample size: 250 | July 5–7, 2013 | Rand Paul 18% | Chris Christie 16% | Paul Ryan 15% | Jeb Bush 14%, Marco Rubio 11%, Ted Cruz 10%, Rick Santorum 6%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Susana Martinez 1%, Other/Undecided 7% |
| Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 5.4% Sample size: 326 | Feb. 1–3, 2013 | Mike Huckabee 16% | Marco Rubio 16% | Rand Paul 15% | Jeb Bush 14%, Chris Christie 12%, Paul Ryan 10%, Susana Martinez 4%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Someone Else/Undecided 7% |
| Public Policy Polling Margin of error: 5.1% Sample size: 363 | July 12–15, 2012 | Rick Santorum 17% | Mike Huckabee 17% | Chris Christie 16% | Rand Paul 11%, Marco Rubio 10%, Jeb Bush 8%, Paul Ryan 6%, Sarah Palin 4%, Scott Walker 4%, Someone else/Not sure 8% |
| Public Policy Polling Margin of error: 5.3% Sample size: 346 | May 3–5, 2012 | Rick Santorum 16% | Mike Huckabee 16% | Chris Christie 15% | Jeb Bush 10%, Sarah Palin 10%, Rand Paul 9%, Marco Rubio 7%, Paul Ryan 5% Someone else/Not sure 10% |
Aftermath and controversy
The caucus results led to immediate controversy when Ben Carson accused Cruz's campaign of employing dishonest tactics, specifically claiming that Cruz supporters falsely told caucus-goers that Carson had dropped out to convince them to switch their votes.Trump subsequently accused Cruz of "stealing" the Iowa caucuses through fraud, taking to social media to demand that Cruz be disqualified and the election results invalidated. These accusations foreshadowed continued tensions between Cruz and Trump as the primary campaign progressed. According to an interview of Trump with Greta Van Susteren of On the Record, he said, “Everything about it was disgraceful. It was a fraud as far as I was concerned.”
The results also had an immediate impact on the Republican field, as Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum suspended their campaigns in the days following the caucuses.
Geographic and demographic analysis
Exit polling revealed Cruz's victory was built on strong support from evangelical voters, who comprised 62% of caucus participants. He won 33% of evangelical voters, while also performing strongly in rural counties and areas with high evangelical populations.Trump's support was notably stronger in eastern Iowa and working-class areas, particularly along the Mississippi River. He performed best among first-time caucus participants and voters without college degrees. Rubio showed particular strength in suburban areas around Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and other population centers, winning 28% of college graduates and performing well among late-deciding voters.