2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina


The 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 United States presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. North Carolina was one of just five states holding presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections concurrently in 2020. On March 3, 2020, Republican incumbent Thom Tillis and former Democratic state senator Cal Cunningham won their respective primaries.
Cunningham led Tillis in the polls throughout much of the campaign. In early October 2020, it was reported that Cunningham had exchanged sexually suggestive messages with a married woman who was not his wife. Cunningham confirmed the texts were authentic and apologized for his behavior. The woman stated that she had a consensual physical relationship with Cunningham in 2020.
Tillis was re-elected to a second and final term, outperforming pre-election polling to win a narrow victory, breaking the "one-term curse" that existed with this particular Senate seat for over twenty years; as no incumbent had been re-elected to this seat since 1996 when Jesse Helms won reelection. On November 10, 2020, a week after Election Day, Cunningham called Tillis to concede the race. Tillis won by a margin of 1.8% over Cunningham, slightly larger than his 1.5% victory in 2014. Tillis received a smaller vote share than Donald Trump's 49.93%, but slightly overperformed his margin of victory in North Carolina.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

  • Sandy Smith, farm owner
  • Garland Tucker, former CEO and chairman of Triangle Capital

Declined

Polling

with only Thom Tillis and Mark Walker

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis		Mark
Walker		Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)May 19–21, 2019502 ± 4.5%43%34%23%
WPA Intelligence (R)May 19–21, 2019502 ± 4.5%28%64%8%
WPA Intelligence (R)May 19–21, 2019502 ± 4.5%21%69%10%

with Thom Tillis and Generic Republican

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis		Generic
Republican		Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)May 19–21, 2019502 ± 4.5%17%18%52%
WPA Intelligence (R)May 19–21, 2019502 ± 4.5%7%32%57%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

  • Katherine Bell-Moore
  • Eva F. Lee, attorney
  • Eric L. Mansfield, former state senator
  • Steve Williams

Declined

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Constitution Party

Nominee

Independence Party

Withdrawn

  • Jeremy Thomas

Independent write-in candidates

Withdrawn

  • Marcia Abrams
  • Lee Brian
  • Matthew Cisneros
  • Michelle Parks
  • Sunita Singh

General election

Campaign

During the Democratic primary, a Republican-funded Super PAC spent $3 million on ads attacking Cunningham and promoting left-wing rival Erica D. Smith.
Cunningham and Tillis participated in debates on September 13, September 22, and October 1.
In July, Tillis claimed Cunningham had been "silent" on the issue of defunding the police, saying,—"I assume silence is...consent". In reality, Cunningham had spoken publicly about the issue and written an op-ed a month earlier stating his opposition to defunding the police, advocating police reform instead.
On October 3, the New York Times wrote that the race had fallen into "utter mayhem" within a period of a few hours after Tillis tested positive for COVID-19 and Cunningham admitted to exchanging sexual text messages with a woman who was not his wife, damaging an image that leaned heavily on his character and military service. Days later, the woman stated that she had had a consensual physical relationship with Cunningham in 2020. The Army Reserve started an investigation into Cunningham. The husband of the woman who stated that she had had an affair with Cunningham, himself an Army veteran, called on Cunningham to drop out of the Senate race. Asked repeatedly whether he had had other extramarital affairs, Cunningham declined to answer.
Tillis's diagnosis, which came after an outbreak at a White House ceremony for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, temporarily threw Barrett's confirmation into jeopardy, as two Republican senators had already stated their intention to vote against.

Fundraising

In the first quarter of 2020, Cunningham outraised Tillis for the first time, receiving $4.4 million compared to the $2.1 million Tillis raised. Tillis's prior fundraising, however, left him with the advantage in cash on hand, with $6.5 million in the bank, compared to Cunningham's $3 million.

Polling

Tillis vs. Cunningham

with Erica D. Smith

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis 		Erica D.
Smith 		Undecided
Meredith CollegeSeptember 29 – October 7, 2019996 ± 3%33%34%17%
Emerson CollegeMay 31 – June 3, 2019932 ± 3.1%39%46%15%

with Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis 		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)June 30 – July 1, 20171,102 ± 3.6%44%48%8%

with Thom Tillis and Generic Opponent

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis 		Generic
Opponent		OtherUndecided
Fabrizio WardJuly 29–31, 2019600 ± 4.0%26%52%3%19%

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		Other/Undecided
Ipsos/ReutersSeptember 11–16, 2020586 ± 4.6%47%48%5%
Siena College/NYT UpshotSeptember 11–16, 2020653 ± 4.3%48%44%8%
Emerson CollegeAugust 8–10, 2020673 ± 3.8%45%44%11%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)August 6–10, 2020600 ± 4%42%43%16%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)May 26–28, 2020500 ± 4.38%43%40%17%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)April 5–7, 2020500 ± 4.4%41%42%17%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)Released March 17, 2020––44%41%15%
Climate NexusFeb 11–15, 2020675 ± 3.9%43%46%11%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)Released October 17, 2019––40%41%20%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)Released September 11, 2019––37%42%21%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)Released August 4, 2019––39%37%24%
Fabrizio WardJuly 29–31, 2019600 ± 4.0%44%44%11%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)Released June 10, 2019––38%38%24%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)Released May 5, 2019––39%39%22%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)Released March 17, 2019––37%40%22%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)Released February 13, 2019––37%38%25%

Results

Like many Republican Senate candidates in 2020, Tillis did much better on Election Day than pre-election prediction polling indicated. The senator narrowly defeated Cunningham 48.7 to 46.9 and slightly outperformed President Trump in terms of margin of victory. Tillis's upset victory has been largely attributed to Cunningham's response to his alleged affair as well as Tillis's fierce campaigning during the last few weeks of the campaign.

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Tillis won eight of 13 congressional districts.
DistrictTillisCunninghamRepresentative
43%53%G. K. Butterfield
35%60%George Holding
35%60%Deborah K. Ross
59%37%Greg Murphy
32%64%David Price
64%31%Virginia Foxx
37%59%Mark Walker
37%59%Kathy Manning
56%39%David Rouzer
50%44%Richard Hudson
53%43%Dan Bishop
64%31%Patrick McHenry
53%42%Madison Cawthorn
29%66%Alma Adams
64%32%Ted Budd