IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
The Fifth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the fifth in a series of such reports and was completed in 2014. As had been the case in the past, the outline of the AR5 was developed through a scoping process which involved climate change experts from all relevant disciplines and users of IPCC reports, in particular representatives from governments. Governments and organizations involved in the Fourth Report were asked to submit comments and observations in writing with the submissions analysed by the panel. Projections in AR5 are based on "Representative Concentration Pathways". The RCPs are consistent with a wide range of possible changes in future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Projected changes in global mean surface temperature and sea level are given in the main RCP article.
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report followed the same general format as the Fourth Assessment Report, with three Working Group reports and a Synthesis report. The report was delivered in stages, starting with the report from Working GroupI in September 2013. It reported on the physical science basis, based on 9,200 peer-reviewed studies. The Synthesis Report was released on 2 November 2014, in time to pave the way for negotiations on reducing carbon emissions at the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris during late 2015.
The report's Summary for Policymakers stated that warming of the climate system is 'unequivocal' with changes unprecedented over decades to millennia, including warming of the atmosphere and oceans, loss of snow and ice, and sea level rise. Greenhouse gas emissions, driven largely by economic and population growth, have led to greenhouse gas concentrations that are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. These, together with other anthropogenic drivers, are "extremely likely" to have been the dominant cause of the observed global warming since the mid-20th century.
- Working Group I: "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia". "Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years". Human influence on the climate system is clear. It is extremely likely that human influence was the dominant cause of global warming between 1951 and 2010.
- Working Group II: "Increasing magnitudes of warming increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts". "A first step towards adaptation to future climate change is reducing vulnerability and exposure to present climate variability". "The overall risks of climate change impacts can be reduced by limiting the rate and magnitude of climate change"
- Working Group III: Without new policies to mitigate climate change, projections suggest an increase in global mean temperature in 2100 of 3.7 to 4.8 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels. "he current trajectory of global annual and cumulative emissions of GHGs is not consistent with widely discussed goals of limiting global warming at 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level." Pledges made as part of the Cancún Agreements are broadly consistent with cost-effective scenarios that give a "likely" chance of limiting global warming to below 3 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels.
Current status
The Fifth Assessment Report consists of three Working Group Reports and a Synthesis Report. The first Working Group Report was published in 2013 and the rest were completed in 2014. The summaries for policy makers were released on 27 September 2013 for the first report, on 31 March 2014 for the second report entitled "Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability", and on 14 April 2014 for the third report entitled "Mitigation of Climate Change".- WG I: The Physical Science Basis – 30 September 2013, Summary for Policymakers published 27 September 2013.
- WG II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability – 31 March 2014
- WG III: Mitigation of Climate Change – 15 April 2014
- AR5 Synthesis Report – 2 November 2014
More than 800 authors, selected from around 3,000 nominations, were involved in writing the report. Lead authors' meetings and a number of workshops and expert meetings, in support of the assessment process, were held. A schedule of AR5 related meetings, review periods, and other important dates was published.
A key statement of the report was that:
Authors and editors
The IPCC was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information concerning climate change, its potential effects and options for adaptation and mitigation.In March 2010, the IPCC received approximately 3,000 author nominations from experts around the world. At the bureau session held in Geneva, 19–20 May 2010, the three working groups presented their selected authors and review editors for the AR5. Each of the selected scientists, specialists and experts was nominated in accordance with IPCC procedures, by respective national IPCC focal-points, by approved observer organizations, or by the bureau. The IPCC received 50% more nominations of experts to participate in AR5 than it did for AR4. A total of 559 authors and review editors had been selected for AR4 from 2,000 proposed nominees. On 23 June 2010 the IPCC announced the release of the final list of selected coordinating lead authors, comprising 831 experts who were drawn from fields including meteorology, physics, oceanography, statistics, engineering, ecology, social sciences and economics. In comparison to the Fourth Assessment Report, participation from developing countries was increased, reflecting the ongoing efforts to improve regional coverage in the AR5. About 30% of authors came from developing countries or economies in transition. More than 60% of the experts chosen were new to the IPCC process, bringing fresh knowledge and perspectives.
Climate change 2013: report overview
On 23 June 2010, the IPCC announced the release of the final list of selected coordinating lead authors, comprising 831 experts. The working group reports would be published during 2013 and 2014. These experts would also provide contributions to the Synthesis Report published in late 2014.The Fifth Assessment Report would be released in four distinct sections:
- Working Group I Report : Focusing on the physical science basis and including 258 experts.
- Working Group II Report : Assessing the impacts, adaptation strategies and vulnerability related to climate change and involving 302 experts.
- Working Group III Report : Covering mitigation response strategies in an integrated risk and uncertainty framework and its assessments carried out by 271 experts.
- The Synthesis Report : Final summary and overview.
Working group I contribution
Summary for Policymakers
A concise overview of Working Group I's findings was published as the Summary for Policymakers on 27 September 2013. The level of confidence in each finding was rated on a confidence scale, qualitatively from very low to very high and, where possible, quantitatively from exceptionally unlikely to virtually certain.| Term | Likelihood of the outcome |
| Virtually certain | 99–100 % probability |
| Extremely likely | 95–100 % probability |
| Very likely | 90–100 % probability |
| Likely | 66–100 % probability |
| More likely than not | 50–100 % probability |
| About as likely as not | 33 to 66% probability |
| Unlikely | 0–33 % probability |
| Very unlikely | 0–10 % probability |
| Extremely unlikely | 0–5 % probability |
| Exceptionally unlikely | 0–1 % probability |
The principal findings were:
General
- Warming of the atmosphere and ocean system is unequivocal. Many of the associated impacts such as sea level change have occurred since 1950 at rates unprecedented in the historical record.
- There is a clear human influence on the climate
- It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of observed warming since 1950, with the level of confidence having increased since the fourth report.
- IPCC pointed out that the longer we wait to reduce our emissions, the more expensive it will become.
Historical climate metrics
- It is likely that 1983–2013 was the warmest 30-year period for 1,400 years.
- It is virtually certain the upper ocean warmed from 1971 to 2010. This ocean warming accounts, with high confidence, for 90% of the energy accumulation between 1971 and 2010.
- It can be said with high confidence that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass in the last two decades and that Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent.
- There is high confidence that the sea level rise since the middle of the 19th century has been larger than the mean sea level rise of the prior two millennia.
- Concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased to levels unprecedented on earth in 800,000 years.
- Total radiative forcing of the earth system, relative to 1750, is positive and the most significant driver is the increase in 's atmospheric concentration.